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martes, 5 de enero de 2016

Important supports worked well but DJIA bias remains bearish-leaning

DJ resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                       18,206     Breakout
                       18,104     2014 peak
                       17,978     Novemver peak
                       17,810
                       17,579     Inflection point
                       17,540     200 days moving average

DJ Support:    17,125     Confirmed support
                       17,050     Very strong
                       16,933.43 Strong
                       16,667     Strong
                       16,410     Light
                       15,980     Very strong
                       15,651.51 Important
                       15,370.33 Very important

Technical Analysis:
Few weeks ago I have indicated that the great support is DJ16,933.43-17,050, this was confirmed in the last two days. December low is DJ17,124 and January low DJ16,957.
There is a negative trend line coming from the all-time high DJ18,351 and the DJIA has done lower highs and lower lows from the November peak after the great rebound negating the August break down DJ17,579.
Although the Monday and Tuesday bounce up the DJIA bias remains bearish-leaning and charts need repairs to lift-off. For example to sleep over November peak DJ17,978.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.



Fundamentals:
2015 is finished. It was a disappointed year for almost all the traders and investors. If you are breakeven you did well. The weakening corporate earnings were expected but the real issue was the oil and that the market did not expect its extreme weakening. Nobody anticipated it. The specialist expected a price between U.S. $60.- to 70.- after they were caught with the lower prices surprise, it went down until U.S. $34.65 per barrel and stays below U.S. $50.- per barrel. Traders are identifying lower oil prices with lower stock market prices, why? because lower oil prices would mean less investments, less new jobs besides decrease in current jobs, less consumption then less corporate sales.
China drop. The trigger was the factory data figures slowdown and the contraction of the U.S. Manufacturing. China is the second great economy country in the world. I agree with the Chinese investors sold out their positions because six months ago the government took measures to recover the drastic Chinese stock market fall. One of them was to have banned large stockholders (5% ownership or more) from selling their stocks in the stock market listed corporations. This ban is ending this Friday and regular investors' fears a stampede. Then they used the manufacturing figures as an excuse to download their positions.
Dear traders and investor, senior traders are coming back this week. U.S.A. is doing well and the quantitative easing in European Union is doing well its work. Then, I suggest you to wait until next week to see the stock market movement confirmation or rejection. We can assess the financial markets with an acceptable liquidity.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
       

1 comentario:

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