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miércoles, 20 de enero de 2016

Longer Trend?

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                         18,206      Breakout
                         18,104      2014 peak
                         17,978      November peak
                         17,810
                         17,579      Inflection point
                         17,461      200 Days moving average
                         17,125      Old support
                         17,050      Old strong support
                         16,933.41  September peak
                         16,667       Important
                         16,232

DJ Resistance:  15,980       Very strong
                         15,842
                         15,651.51  Strong
                         15,370.33  Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The market is at the crossroads of change of trend in the long term. You can see in the last week 3 Years Weekly Chart the strong supports for DJIA, and S&P is almost the same with the strong support at SP1,860. DJIA at these supports shows weakness and the opportunity for a nice bounce to begin the repair of the charts. The bulls have a lot of harsh work.
First resistance is at DJ16,232 and the important is at DJ16,667. DJIA came down when broke important supports at DJ17,125, 17,050 and 16,933.41. This was a technically movement to the downside showing weakness and potentially trend shift in the long term.
DJ15,980 (August low) is a strong support, it worked well on Friday, Monday and Tuesday, the closing days were above it. That reconfirms its importance and existence.
Next light support is at DJ15,842, last week low.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
There is no relevant economic news this week except U.S. housing starts
Will hectic stock market of China affect the world?  This country is very special, government intervenes into it, the investors are locals and are subject of official propaganda. From 2009 China had three bear markets but without recessions while Occident was in a bull market, it is unique and good for China.
What do we have in front of us? Bear market losing about 30% maybe more, secondly bull market with a correction and third risk aversion that could generate a bear market or stock prices correction because investors consider that the prices are too high to buy them.
Dear traders and investors, in my opinion the backdrop is that the stock market is still in a bull market with risk aversion then the only possibility that we have is watching the market behavior and its developement.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises




1 comentario:

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