Technically Still Bullish Bias

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high

                           18,470

                           18,351      Old all-time high

                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995     Prior 18,016 strong support

                           17,700

                           17,579      August 2015 Inflection point

                           17,433

                           17,125      Very strong

                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high

                           16,667      Inflection point

                           16,520  

                           15,980      Very strong

                           15,450       Strong

                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:

Major supports worked and the indexes bounced up from major supports DJ17,995 and SP2,117. They are very important for the bulls, if they break down the still bullish bias could change for a reverse.

We can see that the indexes are in the range. September is a volatile month and the volume increased a little bit but market expects higher activity, let's say more participants. DJ18,247 (August low) is now the resistance and the next DJ18,351 old all-time high.

The last 15 days high DJ18,450 approximately and where the DJIA has topped is the level to fill the first September gap, very technical. DJIA has failed two attempts to break the 50 days moving average in September (please watch the blue line in the chart).

The Trend is still leaning-bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Market got some negative economic news, others considere a flurry, like PMI Manufacturing index which went down to 51.4 from 52.1, those make that interest rates stay low and not allowing the FED to raise them due the decelerating economy. The low rates weak the dollar which is good for the exports competitiveness. Besides, the volatility will continue until the November election. 

We are facing a great uncertainty due the weak economic data, next FED decision and Presidential election. That raises the downside move risk and we could see a wealthy correction to 200 days moving average DJ17,600 and SP2,059. Those levels would be a very nice opportunity to buy stocks because the bull market is still in place.
Tuesday's rally was done after the Presidential debate because the market doesn't like uncertainty as the polls showed Clinton as winner. It doesn't mean that the market prefers Clinton, that means Trump is uncertainty for the market.

Dear traders and investors, until November we are going to navigate in rough seas, the market should work in the range. My opinion is to keep the cash aside to buy in the dips, there are good possibilties of a santa Claus rally before the end of the year.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJIA in a Range

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high

                           18,470

                           18,351      Old all-time high

                           18,247      August low

                           18,171      April peak

DJ Support:      17,995     Prior 18,016 strong support

                           17,700

                           17,579      August 2015 Inflection point

                           17,433

                           17,125      Very strong

                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high

                           16,667      Inflection point

                           16,520   

                           15,980      Very strong

                           15,450       Strong

                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:

DJIA and S&P have maintained themselves over their major supports DJ18,016 to 17,995 (June peak) and SP2,119 while NASDAQ COMPOSITE has almost reached its all-time high and remains the strongest.

DJIA first resistance is at DJ18,247 (August low) and the next and important is DJ18, 351 (old all-time high and breakdown point). S&P has support at SP2,119 and strong resistance at SP2,160 (breakdown point).

DJIA and S&P have formed a holding pattern waiting for FED meeting and policy directives of bank of Japan this week. The trend is still to the upside and well supported at DJ18,000 area.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Hard times, market waits for the FED decision about rates hike and the policy directives from the bank of Japan this week.

Good news we got on Friday, household net worth climbed over 89 trillion U.S. dollars in second quarter. We can explain those gains from stocks and real state rise. That explains why buyer are coming on the dips.

If there is not rate hike, would be a stock rally? Very difficult in my opinion. But it is hard to foresee the future. I think if support at DJ17,995 doesn't work, we will see a retracement to DJ17,579, S&P to SP2,100 and maybe Sp2,050 approximately 200 days moving average.

Dear traders and investors, I still see a leaning-bullish for the long term but in the short we could face a retracement that would be very healthy to rebuild the positions at a good prices. I recommend not to buy until we see the FED decision and we get the policy directives from the Bank of Japan. We could face three or four weeks very moved.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Important Supports Worked

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,171     April peak

DJ Support:      17,995     Prior 18,016 strong support
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 Inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125     Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667     Inflection point
                           16,520    
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has an important support at DJ18,016, it has worked and the low before the bounce up was DJ17,995. The S&P equivalent is SP2,117, the index stopped down at SP2,119. The bounce up was at DJ18,351 that is the old all-time high and the old support that was broken in its way to DJ18,016. The S&P did the same movement to its breakdown at SP2,159. Both are inflection points and sleep over them will show bullish bias. If the supports at DJ17,995 and SP2,117 broke down, the bias will shift.
The downdraft of September is important and we have to consider the damage that it has inflicted in the charts. Only if the DJIA and S&P return over DJ18,351 and SP2,159, the damage in the charts will be erased.
The price action is technical and it should consolidate. The long term trend is still leaning-bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
September is scary after the last four days movement. It confirms the statistic that September is the worst month of the year for the stocks.
Market is pending about the interest rates, some are expecting the increase of them next week after the FED meeting, other for December. We have seen that the bond yields have increased from last week. Please, reread my last weak blog where we can see the disappointed data of the U.S.A. economy, especially the ISM Services and Manufacturing. These negative data should reverse.
It seems that this volatility will stay until next FOMC next week.
Dear traders and investors, Presidential elections, interest rates hike and data is weighting in the market. My opinion is that the odds of the bull market should continue and be prepared to sail in rough seas.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

S&P and Dow Jones Hold in the Range

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                         
DJ Support:      18,470
                           18,355      50 Days moving average
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247     August low
                           18,171     April peak
                           18,016     Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,569      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433    
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis: 
S&P and DJIA stay in the range formed from July. We can say that these ranges were boring during August, the indexes stayed near the upper side during the month which supports the bull bias barring a breakout of the technical supports, DJ18,470, DJ18,355 (50 days moving average), DJ18,351 (old all-time high), DJ18,247 (August low) and the strong support at DJ18,016.
As DJIA is stayed near the new all-time high trying to do new highs we can conclude the bullish trend in the short and long term are in play and provided supports remain unbowed.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We got last week the non-farm payroll which was lower than expected. The unemployment stayed same as prior month.
ISM Service-sector gauge falls to its lowest level since February 2010. Companies of health care, retail goods and financial advice grew in August at a worrisome level. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufactured index fell to 51.4% from 55.5% in July. It is still positive because it is over 50%. The vast majority of Americans are employed in the service oriented businesses that account for much of the U.S. growth.
The ISM new-orders index decreased to 51.4% from 60.3%, it is the lowest level since December 2013.
ISM Manufacturing came last Thursday lower than expected at 49.4%.
These negative indexes could be temporally week, hopefully, after the creators of them. We have to follow and see what is going to happen with them in the future.
Volume is coming back slowly to the market that will confirm or negate the prices level of the stocks.
These bad news are good for the stock market because the economy is growing slow but with no fear of recession and all that means low interest rates.

Dear traders and investors, these last economic news will not allow the FED to increase the interest rates in September, I expect it for December after a confirmation of the recovery of the bad figures.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Potential Upside

DJ Resistance:  18,668     All-time high
                           18,470

DJ Support:      18,351     Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433      June low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA near backdrop is slight weaker than S&P but both are attempting to the resistances at the all-time high. This puts the indexes in a bullish mode.
Next supports are DJ18,351 (old all-time high) and DJ18,247 (August low).
DJIA and S&P are in a small range near the highs in the last 7 weeks. Technically the trend points higher.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
August is ending. The senior traders will be in office in ten days. Monday's bounce was due to higher GDP estimate to 3.5%, it comes from the idea that consumer is in good shape after Personal Income & Outlays report.
ADP: U.S. economy adds +177,000 private-sector jobs in August. Next announcements to pay attention are: ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services and this coming Friday August non-farm payroll and unemployment rate.
Actually, we need to wait for the regular activity in the market after the hard August to begin the trading again.
Dear traders and investors, I think that we are going to get an interest rate increase by the FED in December that means only one this year. It seems to me that the targets DJ18,960 and S&P2,220 are reasonable for the next one or two months.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

The trend is Up

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                         
DJ Support:      18,470
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,221       Light
                           18, 171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,522      200 days moving average
                           17,433     June low
                           17,125     Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong Septembet 2015 high
                           16,667     Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJ18,470 should act as a strong support in the short term, besides the last three weeks range-bound is DJ18,470-18,668. Technically the breakout to the upside is set due the light sell pressure at resistance in the range which is just under the all-time high.
The three indexes are in new territories in slow motion but supported and always attempting the upside. This is bullish.
The short, medium and long term trend is constructive to the upside according to technical analysis barring a violation of DJ18,470 and 18,016.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 

The market is expecting the FED's Janet Yellen speech this coming Friday at Jackson Hole. It could move the market to the up or down side.

The U.S. economy in Q2 had a slow or moderate growth 1.2%. The third should be stronger after the last news like the new home sales on Tuesday and the better corporate profitability we saw in the last earnings season, besides the low interest rates.

The lack of negative news would be the trigger to continue with the up move in a faster speed. Only very negative news like the consequences of Brexit could bring a strong correction. There are other news where we have to pay attention like the November election.

As I have explained in the Technical Analysis section the market is doing new all-time highs in a very slow mode during the last three weeks. This way is new in the market but is supported projecting new highs,

Dear traders and investors, August is August, not easy. Volume is improving, in ten days the market will be working as always and we will see its behavior. I think that the potential is for the up side. 

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Small step by small step making new highs

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high

DJ Support:      18,470      Important
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,221
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,498      200 Days moving average
                           17,433      June low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes have continued doing new all-time highs in a slow motion. This continued up move is considered real and supports the bullish bias. The July breakout is supported and a consolidation phase is in place.
Important supports are DJ18,470, 18,351 (old all-time high), 18,171 and 18,016 (breakout).
The Brexit June whipsaw, "V" bottom, puts a target of DJ18,970 and SP2,235 for the S&P 500.
20 days moving average supports DJIA at DJ18,491.
First important support for S&P is SP2,175 equivalent to DJ18,470.
Summer August movement will be reconfirmed in September or October due the too low volume, please watch it at the chart.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The upcoming news are light for the market until September ISM Mfg, ISM Services and unemployment. These three economic news can shake the market. What could the market's behavior be until the news arrive? It should continue the trend that we have witnessed during the last seven weeks let's say to the upside.
Market is having three scenarios in front. First, the up move will continue, second the consolidation phase is going to take long but it would create the base for an upward move and third, we are going to enter in a correction phase that could trigger a bear market. In my opinion de first two scenarios are the most possible, why? The recent economic data has put the Q3 GDP estimated at +3.6% after the Q2   disappointed +1.2%. The consensus estimate +2.8% for Q3. The largest component of GDP is the consumer spending which grew 4.2% in Q2 compare to +1.6% in Q1. Retail sales grew by 3.1% in the 2016 first semester compared with the same period in 2015. Spending on durable goods +8.4%, spending on non-durable goods +6.0% and services +3.0% with respect to Q1.

Dear traders and investors, August is August, the interest rates are still low and the U.S.A. economy is doing well not spectacular but like in the last years path that means slow but constant. I don't know how August is going to close but the trend is up sustained by the technical analysis and fundamentals. We have to discuss about the U.S.A., EU, Japanese, China and other countries debt, it is a dangerous problem, but for the moment liquidity is needed to overcome the various crises.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises