No Christmas Rally

DJ resistance: 18,351    All-time high
                         18,206     Breakout
                         18,104     2014 peak
                         17,978     November peak
                         17,810   
                         17,579     Inflection point
                         17,541     200 Days moving average

DJ Support:    17,125     Strong confirmed
                        17,050      Very strong
                        16,933.43 September peak
                        16,667     Very strong
                        16,410     Light
                        15,980     Very strong
                        15,651.51 Important
                        15,370.33 Very important

Technical Analysis and Fundamentals:

Dear traders and investors, it seems that there is not enough steam for the waited Christmas rally. We have to pay attention to the slump volume next week due the senior managers' holiday. It could create the opportunity to try to reach the DJIA all-time high and also to look for the important supports. What I want to say is the real market would come again the January second week.
If you trade during these days the breaks should be confirmed in January.
Please watch supports and resistances to navigate taking into account during these time they could be penetrated easily.
I wish you: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
                  Happy Holidays!

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

FED: Interest Rates Hike?

DJ resistance:  18,351    All-time high
                       18,206     Breakout
                       18,104     2014 peak
                       17,978     November peak
                       17,810  
                       17,584     200 Days moving average
                       17,579     Inflection point

DJ Support:    17,125      Strong confirmed
                       17,050      Very strong
                       16,933.43 Sepetember peak
                       16,667     Very strong
                       16,410     Light
                       15,980     Very strong
                       15,651.51 Important
                       15,370.33 Very important

Technical Analysis:
DJIA worked still in the small range but broke down the supports. Then we have to be alert.
DJ17,050 and DJIA 16,933.43 supports are very strong and DJIA over those levels is constructive and bullish-leaning barring a breakdown that could be catastrophic as I explained last week.
DJ17,579 and DJ17,584 (200 days moving average) are the inflection points, if the DJIA breaks up over them the trend in the short and long term are bullish.
DJ17,125 support was tested and confirmed yesterday (DJ17,138 low of the day), the index bounced up from this level.
DJIA is stronger in this moment than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE.
S&P supports 1,993 (today's low), 2,020 and resistance 2,040.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Well, interest rates will hike? This Wednesday is the day. Market has discounted the beginning of the interest rates hike in 9 years by FOMC. Personally, I am not sure but the majority of the experts expect this increase in December.
If the interest rates hike is done it will be minimal. The inflation is below 2% p.a., the FED's target is 2% p.a., thanks in part to the oil's low price. The U.S. Dollar should increase its value in front of the other currencies. From last year the U.S. Dollar has won 12% in value against to the Euro. This a good new for the American importers, U.S.A. inflation and a bad new for the debtors in the American currency like some emerging countries. The liquidity is going to be reduced that is bad for junk bonds.
I think the investors are rebalancing their portfolios rotating to strong and good stocks and selling junk bonds and buying Treasury and strong corporation bonds.
Dear traders and investors, I still count on the consumption and more after the Friday Retail sales figures. I find difficult a market revert after interest rates FOMC decision. That explains my position to be long over DJ17,050. For the moment there is nothing to do only wait for this Wednesday. I think the FED should raise the rates with a message that it is necessary and they are not going to disrupt the economy.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

 

Dow Jones at a very important support

DJ Resistance:   18,351    All-time high
                         18,206     Breakout
                         18,104     2014 Peak
                         17,978     November peak
                         17,810
                         17,590     200 Days moving Average
                         17,579     Very important

DJ Support:      17,420     Last week low
                         17,410     50 Days moving average
                         17,210     November low
                         17,125
                         17,050     Very strong
                         16,933.43 September peak
                         16,667     Very strong
                         16,410     Light
                         15,980     Very strong
                         15,651.51 Important
                         15,370.33 Very important

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has worked in a small range during the last two weeks and it is supported by DJ17,210 (November low), DJ17,410 (50 days moving average) and DJ17,420 (last week low). If those supports are broken we have to put the alert. DJIA over DJ17,050 is constructive and bullish-leaning barring a breakdown that could be catastrophic. DJIA had a pronounced up spike in October that could explain the rest of the market in the last fifteen days.
DJIA and S&P have formed in the last five weeks a short term triangle doing lower highs and higher low, please watch the daily chart. The triangle breakout explodes. S&P important supports are 1,993, 2,020 and 2,040.
The positive and negative trend lines for the medium term are very clear in the chart.
The trend in the long run is bullish but Christmas rally seems not to come this year..

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Non-farm payroll was positive last Friday, earnings are neutral but not negative. We are going to continue getting economic news until next week when FED will decide about the interest raise which is discounted by the markets.
Tuesday's weakness was due to the crude oil's continued prices slide and the Chinese Trade Balance data that showed out a deceleration in the exports and imports affecting their economy. The Shangai index lost 2%.
The domino effect came to Europe and U.S.A.., especially in mining, materials and equipment firms. Technology and consumer oriented corporation are positive don't forget we are in holiday shopping season.
Dear traders and investors, we have worked a lot in this difficult year. I don't expect a Christmas rally for the end of the year, it could be. It seems to me that the year is going to close in the same level as the year started. Same for the S&P.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

No Thanksgiving rally

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakout
                        18,104     2014 peak
                        17,978     November peak important
                        17,914     Light but important

DJ Support:     17,810
                        17,680     Medium
                        17,596     200 days moving average
                        17,579     Very strong
                        17,210     Last bounce
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050     Very strong
                        16,933.43 September peak
                        16,667     Very strong
                        16,460     Light
                        15,980     Very strong
                        15,651.24 Important
                        15,370.33 Very important

Technical Analysis:
DJIA was in small range last week very well supported by DJ17,680, DJ17,579 and 200 days moving average. This shows a bullish-leaning for the short term. Last two weeks of trading were affected by terrorism in Paris.
The consolidation of DJIA over DJ17,050 and DJ16,933.43 (September peak) indicates bullish trend for the long run.
The attempt to DJ17,978 will gauge the bear-bull strength. Markets behavior on resistances are more significant than on supports.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Retail sales of the weekend after Thanksgiving disappoints. The american consumers have stronger capacity to consume because the energy price fall, better incomes, no inflation and better consumer sentiment. But why did the sales disappoint? Because the consumers buy more through the electronic systems and they do that in the Christmas prior days. This is what I have realized last year.
This week and next we are going to get very important economic news like unemployment rate, non-farm payroll, factory orders and so on. These information is going to affect FED decision about the interest rate increase in December and next year.
Dear traders and investors, we entered in December and I expect a hectic month because all the economic news are going to be related to FED's interest rate increase and the possibility of a Christmas rally. I am positive with the stock market and I expect, for the moment, to have a rally in December based on the consumers which is important for the corporation earnings.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

Pullback?

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakout
                        18,104     2014 peak
                        17,978     November peak
                       
DJ Support:     17,810     Light
                        17,589     200 days moving average
                        17,579     August breakdown
                        17,210     Last bounce
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050    Very strong
                       16,933.43 September peak
                       16,667     Strong
                       16,460     Light
                       15,980     Very strong
                       15,651.24 Important
                       15,370.33 Very important

Technical Analysis:
There is a rally from the November low after a clear engulfing to the upside. This is bullish in the DJIA. The November peak DJ17,978 is an important resistance to go to the inflection point DJ18,104 (2014 peak).
The important support is at DJ17,579 and DJ17,589 (200 days moving average).
DJIA consolidation over DJ17,050 and DJ16,933.43 is bullish-leaning in the long run. DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are working technically over well-defined supports.
DJ17,978 (November peak) is going to be a battlefield for the bears and bulls, pay attention to this. It seems difficult to get a Thanksgiving rally breaking up this level, there are two days for that.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The geopolitical worries have stopped the empowered rally after the engulfing seven days ago. Economic news are not the best but still positive for example 3rd. quarter GDP.
This is a shortened week and this Wednesday we are going to get important news like durable goods orders, consumer sentiment, consumer spending, core inflation and so on.
The last news about consumer confidence came below expectations at 90.4 and the lowest since September 2014.
Dear traders and investors, I think that we are not going to have Thanksgiving rally. The markets participants are expecting the sales results of this holiday to perceive if the Christmas rally is coming. Then what we should do is to wait for this information and to be ready to go long at DJ17,579 and DJ17,050.
This year is confused and what has paid is the long side, some short sellers have done good money but only on trading not taking position for the long run. We still have five weeks before the end of the year, if we can read the rally we'll close the year with a nice smile. I am bullish over DJ17,050.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

           

Dow Jones still over strong supports

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakdown
                        18,104     2014 peak
                        17,978     High before pullback
                        17,810     Light but important
                        17,595     200 days moving average
                        17,579     August breakdown

 DJ Support:    17,210     Last bounce
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050     Very strong
                        16,933.43 September high
                        16,667     Breakdown very important
                        16,460     Light
                        15,980     Very strong
                        15,651.24 Important
                        15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is consolidating over DJ16,933.43-17,050, it is bullish-leaning bias for the long run. DJ17,579 and DJ17,595 (200 days moving average) are important levels of resistance. The market is in a not well charted zone.
What is important is to remark the Monday's engulfing up bounce. That is really positive according to the technical analysis.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

     Fundamentals:
Retail corporate earnings last week drove the market to the down side, Macy's -17.9% and Nordstrom -13.8%. But this week Walmart Stores and Home Depot better than expected reaffirmed the possibility that consumers are going to drive to a possibly new highs before year's end and the continuation of the bull market.
Dear traders and investors, we have to work reading if the bull market will continue its path. It seems to me the bull market is alive and I expect a rally before year's end.  When do we have the rally? I am working on it.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises       

Resting before Thanksgiving?

DJ Resistance: 18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakdown
                        18,104     2014 peak
                        17,978     High before pullback
                        17,810     Light

DJ Support:     17,658     Light
                        17,579     August breakdown
                        17,576     200 days moving average
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050     Very strong
                        16,933.43 September high
                        16,667     Breakdown very strong
                        16,460     Light
                        15,980     Very strong
                        15,651.24 Important
                        15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The market pullback was overdue, why? Because, watch the chart, the "W" target was attempted the day when the high was DJ17,978.
The stock market normally after the hectic October takes a rest until Thanksgiving or Christmas.
What is important is the strong support at DJ17,579 (August breakdown and prior strong support) and DJ17,576 (200 days moving average). The market can consolidate over those supports during these two weeks or until Christmas to try its way up again.
The consolidation over DJ16,933.43-17,050 will maintain a bullish bias for the long run.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

   Fundamentals:
The jobs report on Friday was very positive and worked in favor for the rate hike in December. The last earnings season is neutral, maybe more positive than negative. Besides, higher interest rates will strengthen the U.S. Dollar. This backdrop is mixed, consumers are going to be big players in the U.S. economy, the exports could fall and we could see a portfolio rotation during the consolidation.
Dear traders and investors, we got a nice rally in the last five weeks, it is time for healthy consolidation and to rest. I suggest you to do the same. We are going to follow the market trying to catch if we are going to have the Thanksgiving rally. This year is not easy, I think traders, investors and public in general are tired. All of them will try to do the year in these last two months and to do mistakes would be easy. Take a week for rest!

 Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Technically to the upside

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakdown
                        18,104     2014 peak

DJ Support:     17,810     Important
                        17,579     August breakdown
                        17,569     200 Days moving average
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050     Very strong
                        16,933.43 September high
                        16,667     Breakdown very strong
                        16,460     Light
                        15,980     Strong
                        15,651.24 Important
                        15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
What a rebound of DJIA and S&P. Both have repaired its charts and now are showing a clear bullish bias.
The DJIA supports DJ17,810, DJ17,579 and 200 days moving average should attract buyers and sustain a bullish bias barring a violent breakdown of them.
DJIA broke up the negative trend line coming from the all-time high and has exceeded the 200 days moving average that is positive and technically open the way to the all-time high. Before it has to break resistances at DJ18,104, 18,206.
The three indexes have done a great spike in the last month and the retracement were limited. The indexes have formed a ladder on the rise with solid steps.
With all these facts, we can say that longer term bias is bullish. We have to pay attention always to the supports.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
At the beginning of the last quarter of 2015, economics in U.S.A. and China were bad but better than expected which supported the stock market. The last economic news are positive, that allow us to expect to see the test of the stock markets high.
The last steep rise in the stock market is due to those news and the Tech results in the S&p and DJIA. Please watch Microsoft and Amazon results from its cloud business, the perspective are extremely positive. Alphabet, the parent of Google, reporter stronger-than-expected revenues and earnings, and the corporation will share repurchase, it is authorized to buy back U.S. $ 5.1 billion worth. It seems that Tech results will continue to be strong. Let's see Facebook, Linkedln Corp., T-Mobile U.S.A. and the others.
Dear traders and investors, market is pointing up and it is very possible to get a rally before year's end. But pessimism is around the corner, don't forget the 12% correction from August. We have to work with the market trend which is to the upside but always being alert. Stock market is not a game of chance, we have to be rational taking our decisions.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones well supported and attempting resistance

DJ Resistance: 18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakout
                        18,104     2014 peak
                        17,810     Important

DJ Support:     17,579     August breakdown
                        17,575     200 days moving average
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050     Strong
                        16,933.43 September high
                        16,672     50 days moving average
                        16,667     Breakout
                        16,460     Light
                        15,980     Strong
                        15,651.24 Important
                        15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA did a grounded bounce and perked up the important resistance DJ15,579 and 200 days moving average DJ15,575 and is sleeping just over them. That is positive and bullish. If DJIA stays over them and breaks up resistance DJ17,810 the charts were repaired and the market bias would be bullish and strong.
S&P backdrop is similar to the DJIA. S&P and DJIA did two months high which put both indexes in bullish bias.
DJ17,579 is an inflexion point because it was the August drop level to the September low and bulls are trying to repair the charts with DJIA over its inflection point. Next resistance is DJ17,810 which coincides with the negative trend line coming from the all-time high (watch the chart).

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The positive U.S. Corporation earnings season and the decreased interest rate by Central Bank of China encouraged the stock market for piercing the important resistance DJ17,579, inflection point, on last Friday. 1,076 corporations will report this week. And Yesterday and today's slight retracement are due to the Fed monetary policy announcement this Wednesday.
Economic news coming are no so positive like today's U.S.Durable Goods Orders that fall more than expected in September. We will know the GDP Q3 on Thursday which is estimated a positive 1.7% and it is slower than the growth  +3.9% GDP Q2.
Dear traders and investors, Third quarter earnings season is positive and that is good for the stock market, technically DJIA and S&P is supporting over the old inflection points and clear resistances. But economics are mixed and without them we can not expect a healthy rally in the stock market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

DJ17,579 Major Resistance

DJ resistance: 18,351      All-time high
                       18,206      Breakout
                       18,104      2014 peak
                       17,810      Important
                       17,585      200 days moving average
                       17,579      Breakdown
                       17,265      2 months high

DJ Support:    17,125      Light
                       16,933.43 September high
                       16,679      50 days moving average
                       16,667      Breakout
                       16,460      Light
                       15,980      Strong
                       15,651.24 Important
                       15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Major resistance DJ17,579, before support, is the next bulls' target. If market breaks up this level and stays over it, we can consider that the damages of the charts are repaired. 200 days moving average is also a major resistance for DJIA.
For S&P the major resistance is SP2,040 and 200 days moving average.
If DJIA stays in the surrounding area of DJ17,579, the odds of a breakup increases. Pay attention to that.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Corporate earnings and economic news are coming with disappointments. But consumption, especially consumer discretionary sector, is expected to improve this and next year. For example, there are rumors that Amazon is looking to get 100,000 temporary jobs for the holidays. National Federation's Consumer Spending Survey is expecting a better consumption this year. The average spending per American during holidays is expected U.S.$805.65, U.S.$3.20 more than last year.
Dear traders and investors, we will have the earnings of very important corporations this week, until now the corporate results have been mixed. Positive earnings came from Adobe Systems Inc., United Health Group Inc., Netflix Inc., Lennar Corp., negative came from IBM, but the market is feeling and expecting a constant consumption for the last trimester of 2015 and complete 2016, that would be the key for a solid stock market. I prefer to avoid long conversations this week and watch the corporate earnings during October.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Ad Portas of an Important Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351       All-time high
                         18,206      Breakout
                         18,104      2014 peak
                         17,810      Important
                         17,600      200 days moving average
                         17,579      Very important
                         17,125      Very important

DJ Support:      16,933.43 September high
                         16,700      50 moving average
                         16,667      Breakout
                         16,460      Light breakout
                         15,980      Strong
                         15,651.24 Importnat
                         15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Next resistance is DJ17,125 key resistance is DJ 17,579 and 200 days moving average DJ17,600.
DJIA has to sleep over DJ17,579 to consider solid repairs on charts.
We can consider the medium term with a positive bias is DJIA stays over supports DJ16,667 (breakout) and DJ16,700 (50DMA)
DJIA positive uptrend is stronger than S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE. Both indexes have double bottom forming a clear "W", you can see them easily in the charts, DJ16,667 and SP1,870. This powerful and we are seeing the bounce.
The breakout of resistances indicated at the beginning would strength the bull case.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Please read my fundamentals of last week again. We entered in earnings season, these and good economic news are the catalyzers for a bounce before year's end. I expect a rally during the last three months of 2015 but we could enter in a bear market, then we have to be ready to shift direction and protect our portfolios. DJIA and S&P have a seven days with step rise and are putting aside clear resistances. Now is the time for fundamentals to support an upward movement.
Dear traders and investors, I am not frankly clear right now, we still are in October in a bounce but below DJ17,579, the up move could be evaporated. We have to watch the earnings season and if they are better than those of the second quarter, we will get the bounce and attempt to the all-time highs. The U.S. consumer has increased 3% approximately and consumer is still two thirds of the U.S. GDP. That is positive for the bulls, let's see the corporations' results in the third quarter.Caution is warranted.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Bull-bear at the cross

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                         18,206     Breakout
                         18,104     2014 Peak
                         17,810     Important
                         17,579     Very important
                         17,050     Very strong
                         16,933.43 September high
                         16,790     50Days moving average (50DMA)

DJ Support:      16,667     Old upper limit trading range
                         16,460     Light
                         15,980     Lower limit trading range
                         15,942.37 September low
                         15,651.24 Important
                         15,370.33 Very strong

Technical analysis:
DJIA did an impressive bounce up from the support (lower limit of the trading range) and broke the upper limit of the trading support DJ16,667 and today closed at 16,790.
For the bulls is very important to break DJ16,796 (50 DMA) and DJ16,993.43 (September high). They could indicate an inflection point. Those levels are going to be the place of a bull-bear confrontation. If these resistances are broken up, the chart repairs could be considered solid and the bulls will look for a rally before year's end. If not, the landscape would be a bearish consolidation because the important mentioned resistances are a wall.
DJIA is fighting with the 50 days moving average and with the downward trend line that you can see in the chart.
The first support is DJ16,667, before it was a very important resistance.
S&P is capped at SP1,993 and is below its 50 days moving average like NASDAQ COMPOSITE. DJIA is the strongest index right now because it broke up the upper limit of the trading range and is just over its 50 days moving average.
The backdrop is still bearish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Employment and U.S.A. manufacturing came in a not positive figures as the economy needs. These triggered the market to the upside on Friday because investors extrapolated that the interest rates increase by the FED will be at least for December or next year.
I think we don't have seen real selling in the stock market. Volume, during trade sessions, has increased lately but not enough to think about panic and capitulation. Instead, I would think that hunter bargains are ready like snappers.
World Bank and FMI annual meeting is taking place in Lima right now and the economic prospects for the world are weak but showing improvement for 2015, 2016 and the future.
Dear traders and investors, my position is to be alert with a bearish bias although DJIA is breaking up resistances at the top of the range. Bulls need better and fluid economic news to get a good bounce. Earnings season is coming and it could help them. For the moment we are waiting for new economic news and analyze them. I am very sorry because this year the trading in the financial markets is so hard and I have realized soon the toppishness of the market but I could not assist you defining a clear direction. I try my best, this year is actually awful. The market is stuck in a range with the risk of a bear market. Stay cool, we still have three months to work before year's end and do money.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones technically on support

DJ Rsistance:  18,351     All-time high
                       18,206     Breakout
                       18,104     2014 Peak
                       17,810     Important
                       17,579     Very important
                       17,050     Very strong
                       16,667     Upper limit of the tranding range
                       16,460     Light

DL Support    15,980     Lower limit of the trading range
                       15,942    September low
                       15,651    Important
                       15,370    Very important

Technical analysis:
DJIA is still working in its range DJ15,980-16,667. We can affirm that the lower limit supported although today's attempt to break it down.
The support at 15,651 is the next bear's target. Volume increased which means that buyers and sellers came in and fought.
In the long run the DJIA bias is bearish, the bulls need DJIA overcomes DJ16,667 and sleeps over DJ17,050. Technical repairs of the charts are needed if the long term bull market is going to continue.
Charts show a bearish bias in the medium term and possibly in the long run. We have to watch the actual support in the "10 Years Monthly Chart".

Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Fateful October for stocks and financial markets is "ad portas". Participants and investors do not like uncertainty which is the case right now, they need to clear if the trend is up or down, never doubt.
Important Economic data is coming in October, unemployment rate, non-Farm payroll, U.S.A. and China manufacturing, and so on.
Dear traders and investors, we are going to face a hectic October. There is not much to say because the volatility is high, up or down, due the uncertainty and the August and September weakness. Earnings season is also coming. Bottom? It not easy to define where. I think that the volatility will continue and probably we are going to see lower levels, but I expect a bounce in the next three months.  The market direction depends on economic data coming. The important is to stay cool, do not take emotional decisions, do not liquidate your assets in the down days that is capitulation. I still see a robust U.S.A. economy that is my foundation to expect a bounce. European Community is doing better, EM (Emerging Markets) are complicated specially Brazil. Volkswagen weighs in the financial markets, we'll see what happen with it and it is going to propose a solution for the 11 million diesel cars.
Stay cool! That attitude is needed in these times.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Long term bearish?

DJ resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                          18,206     Breakout
                          18,104     2014 peak
                          17,810     Important
                          17,579     Very important
                          17,050     Very strong
                          16,667     Upper side of the range
                          16,210     Light
                          15,980     Lower side of the range
                          15,651     Important
                          15,370     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The trading range DJ15,980-16,667 is still in place in spite of the breakout attempt after the FED's policy decision and the bearish reversal.
If DJIA stays below DJ16,667, the bears could drive the market in a bearish direction. Bulls need to percolate the important resistance DJ 16,667 and sleep over DJ17,050 to get the opportunity for a bounce to try again DJIA over DJ18,000.
The DJIA like S&P backdrop are taking a bearish hue for the medium term barring the breakout the resistance DJ 16,667.
We are going to analyze the 10 Years monthly chart next week just before the September close. Until now, support is working.
Please, use the chart to navigate into the market, it is not easy.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is driven by interest rates raise and China economy. The Chinese President, Ji Xinping, visit to U.S.A. besides Pope's visit are going to dominate the domestic press about international news.
Important economic news are coming this week and next like U.S. PMI PSG Flash, Durable Goods, U.S. Consumer Sentiment, U.S. PMI Services Flash, U.S.Q2 GDP final revision. But they are not going to break the range DJ15,651-17,050., for that market needs the unemployment figures or the very important U.S. PMI Manufacturing that we are going to know in October.
Dear traders and Investors, I am worry because technically the market is showing a possible bearish shift in the medium term and maybe in the long run. Long term bull market is still supported but it is on the limit support, buyers should be drawn.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Interest rates: Ahead of the FED

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 high
                           17,810     Important
                           17,579     Very important
                           17,050     Strong
                           16,667    Upper side trading range

DJ Support:     16,210     Light
                          15,980     Lower side trading range
                          15,651
                          15,370

Technical Analysis:
DJIA stayed in the trading range DJ15,980-16,667 waiting for the FED decision. The limits of the trading range are clear. S&P did the same and both indexes are attacking the range top but it seems that the sellers were drawn on the resistance levels. Its technical bias points to the low side barring a close over DJ16,667.
DJIA needs to atop DJ17,579 to show solid chart repairs.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy and global economy, specially China, Japan and emerging markets like Brazil are driven the financial markets. U.S.A. is doing well and recovering, summer payroll, retail and construction reports show positive path. Q2 2015 GDP grew 3.7% and consumption did +3.1% in the same period. , that is positive for the stocks but markets don't trust China recovery.
Dear traders and in investors, volatility, up and downside, will continue in the next weeks. Correction has ended? We don't know. It is very hard to time the market. We have to follow the ups and down movement and when we'll have the bottom confirmation we should buy and take the bargains. Right now I don't recommend to chase bargains. Market is expecting FED meeting on 16th. and17th. September and its decision about the interest rates increase. Next meeting are in October and December. Personally, I think the rate increase should be for December if there is.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Ups and Downs

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 peak
                           17,810     Important
                           17,579     Very Important
                           17,050     Strong
                           16,640

DJ Support:      15,980
                           15,850
                           15,370

Technical Analysis:
The damage caused in the charts is clear and needs time for the repairs. Last week has created a new trading range DJ15,980-16,640.
For the bulls, the trade over DJ17,579 and 17,810 is very important. And for the bears is the trading below 15,850.
The long term bull market is still in place because the support has worked. In the short an medium term the trens is bearish and it could be worst. If the DJIA stays over DJ16,000 we could conclude the chart repairs are on the way.

Pleaswe click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
The market is receiving the pressure from China (Yuan, growth, stock market), Greece, emerging markets (especially BRICS countries), FED, etc. The volatility (see VIX) in the last four weeks caused fear and panic to the traders and investors. Investors doesn't like fear and it is difficult to endure or support those emotions especially when you are losing money.
The fresh economic news are going to continue coming but the most important for September is the FED interest rates increase decision next week. September is the worst month of the year for the financial markets.
Dear traders and investors, September is going to be very volatile, we are going to be in the money some days and others losing it. I still think that the U.S.A. economy is positive and the EU is recovering in a slower pace. The DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are in a correction phase. In my opinion the pros are higher than the cons and we should see a bounce before the year's end. But We have to be alert and ready to take dramatic decisions if the direction of the market shifts. Remember, the most important is to preserve the capital.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

Bearish Backdrop

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 high
                           17,810     Important
                           17,579     Very important
                           17,050     Strong
                           16,640

 DJ Support:     15,850     Strong
                           15,370

Technical Analysis:
DJIA broke support at DJ16,460 approximately which is bearish and that indicates a possible shift to a bearish long-term direction. The S&P did the same with its support at SP1,970.
The 10 years monthly chart shows that the long term bull market is at its last and important support, please watch the chart.
The damage in the charts are considerably and is going to take time the repair of them.
September is beginning and volume is coming. The saucer pan formed on the toppish top is clear and the trend is bearish not only for the short term barring support at DJ15,850 works well and produces a bounce up. The resistance at DJ17,579 is the line to confirm the chart repairs are on the way.

Fundamentals:

I expect positive economic news from U.S.A. on productivity, manufacturing, service and employment.

This Friday would be the center of this week expectations with unemployment figures, non-farm payroll expected 213,000 new jobs by average economist. On Wednesday we will receive the ADP jobs, it should be positive, some speak about solid rock.

The last correction of the market was in 2012, S&P corrected 10% between April and June something like 32 days. We got calm during the last 3 years. The correction is healthy for the market prices and it will put out the loose hand investors.

Volatility, ups and downs, is going to be present in September. China puts nervous all the markets, affects and drives the stock exchanges markets.

Dear traders and investors, I am still positive with U.S.A. economy and stock market, European Union is doing better, the damage in the market needs repairs, September should begin with it. Then we have to expect volatility during this month. Please stay cool, stick to your plans, this correction is positive for the financial markets, I expect the rates rise for the end of the year, I told you at the end of 2014 that they were for September at least. If the support breaks down we can get a deeply shift of the market direction.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

Dead-cat Bounce?

DJ Resistance: 18,351     All-time high
                          18,206     Breakout
                          18,204     2014 high
                          17,810     Important
                          17,579     Very important
                          17,050
                          15,850     Very strong

DJ Support:     15,370
                          14,500

Technical Analysis:
The damage inflicted in the charts from last week is considerable and the recovery is going to take time.
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have violated its 200 days moving average which is significant because these important supports broke down.
DJIA has lost from last top DJ18,104 (2014 peak) about 2,200 points. DJIA has lost about 2,900 points from the high of the year which means a 14.5% correction. Markets movement over 10% is a correction and 20% means bear market by definition. DJIA needs to stabilize over DJ17,579 breakdown and tested point, please watch daily chart. And break up DJ17,810 to look for a higher leg. DJIA closed today below DJ15,850 a strong support that shows weakness and put the index in the defensive way.
As we realised in the prior weeks, the DJIA was doing lower highs and lower lows, it was very clear in the charts, I read that S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE were ready to support DJIA but the Shanghai Stock Exchange sold off put the Global markets in a defensive mood.
The indexes charts are awful showing the fall in the last days.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Dow and European markets are well but China is where the play is. U.S.A and Europe are going to be affected for what's going on in China. The last days fall are actually awful and the panic is in the stock market backdrop. This is diferent with what happened with Greece because of the size.
China has taken the correct measures to face the fall with delay. Right now the factor of confidence is in place, and investments = confidence is in all over the world.
Dear traders and investors, these moments are really hectic but we have to stay cool and rational. I think U.S.A. economy is in shape and EU is coming back its weak economy, Spain is growing over 3% p.a. Almost all the world commerce with China, emerging and frontier states need China demand for its raw materials and products. The markets damage done is there, this is the reality. Technical analysis shows the fall and indicate that a recovery is going to take time and efforts, and the possible bounces up could be "dead-cat bounce". On the fundamentals U.S.A and EU are in shape and they were doing positive before China's fall, Chinese authorities are taken measures to reestablish stabilization in the first step and growth after. Let's see the bottoming process without forgetting the emotional state of the traders and investors many of whom could try to sell in the bounces up.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

August: technically still bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakdown
                           18,104     2014 high
                           17,810     Important last top
                           17,579     March low and important area
 
DJ Support:      17,400     July low
                           17,125     6 months low
                           17,050     Very strong


Technical Analysis:
S&P supported and bounced up from its important support at SP2,080 and 200 days moving average (200DMA) SP2,077 which is bullish because it means that buyers were attracted at those levels. NASDAQ COMPOSITE did almost the same and it is the strongest index between the three.
DJIA backdrop is the weakest but it bounced up with the other two. It is atop DJ17,400 old five months low that now acts as support. For DJIA is very important to close over DJ17,810.
DJIA is the only one which is running below 200DMA and 50DMA has crossed the 200DMA to the downside which should be bearish barring that DJIA is supported by S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE, they are over its 200DMA.
 The U.S. stock market behavior this year is toppish but still solid. S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE remian with neutral and bullish-leaning.
DJIA consolidation range is DJ17,050-18,351.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Market was affected by Grexit, the fall of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Yuan devaluation, weaker Japanese economy, plunge of the oil and gold prices, neutral 2nd.earnings season of 2015, Brazil, all these in the last two months. With all these negative circumstances the stock market has supported in its consolidation range. I find this as positive.
August is not an easy month, senior traders are in holidays and market volume decreases during the summer doldrums.
We are going to face important economic news in the next two weeks and the market reaction is difficult to anticipate due the low volume.
Dear traders and investors, technical analysis still points to the upside and also fundamentals. I am still bullish but this time I am alert because the market direction can shift easily.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                     

Well supported although China devalution

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 Peak
                           17,810     Last top and 200 days moving average
                           17,579

DJ Support:      17,400
                           17,279     Six months low
                           17,050     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE supported over its 200 days moving averages. S&P has resisted the third attempt to breakdown the support at 200 days moving average, it shows its bullish bias barring a violation of this support. It means that buyers came in this important point. NASDAQ COMPOSITE still has its bullish bias and is the strongest index.
DJIA has tried to reverse from its six months low but it could not break DJ17,810 resistance. To recover a bullish bias DJIA has to stabilize over this level. DJIA is the weakest index and is doing lower highs with lower lows, which is negative.
We can conclude after technical analysis that the S&P with NASDAQ COMPOSITE remains resilient and they can bring support to the weak DJIA.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Earnings season is almost gone and it didn't give us a summer rally. The stock market is going to move by the economic news and possibly by political during August with a low volume.
The long term bull market is toppish, watch the last seven months, but the upside bias is still in place.
August is the traders holidays time and it could be a boring month for the trading.
The market is evaluating how the China's currency devaluation is going to affect the activity, the Chinese Yuan has devalued 1.6 and 1.9%, Deutsche Bank is predicting the Yuan is overvalued by around 10%, so if the Yuan continues to weaken, the stock market should be affected. The rate increase should wait until the fourth quarter at least.
Dear traders and investors, it seems to me that we are going to navigate in the consolidation range during the next four weeks.This 2015 is very hard for the traders because it is toppish and stays into the range. My bias is still to the upside and don't forget that the long term bull market is still alive.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises