Near to the all-time high

DJ Resistance:  16.735,51  All-time record high
                            16.715,44  All-time closing high

DJ Support:        16.580
                            16.520
                            16.312      Strong April's low
                            16.174      November's peak
                            16.015      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA broke up the resistances at DJ16.580 and DJ16.620, which shows the clear up trend.
The DJIA has formed a positive trend line from March's low. It has high probabilities to drive the index to breakout the all-time high resistance and to visit new territories (watch the chart).
The new S&P all-time record high SP1.912, the fresh NASDAQ Composite bounce up clearing resistance at 4.155 and the negative trend line from March's high confirm this strong up move.
The S&P one or two closes above the SP1.900 is not a breakout, to get the confidence of it we need to stay and close above this level during many days.
I like this break out potential for the longs and today's volume supports it.

The trend is up well supported.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it

Fundamentals:

The technical analysis concludes that the trend is upward so clear as the transparency and clarity of the rainwater but fundamentally not so much.

We are getting positive economic news with some negatives and some neutrals. This week and next are plenty of important economic news ending next week's Friday with the unemployment and non-farm payroll.

The U.S.A. economy is growing, the recovery is on the way if economic activity can maintain a constant solid step. It seems to me that it is working.

Dear traders and investors, I think we are going to see and enjoy DJIA new records high soon, the question is to maintain those levels. If the DJ continues to the upside it goes to breakout the range and it will navigate in non-charted territory. This is what I expect for the short term. I am still bullish, maintain your long positions. The momentum and timing are mature for this attempt, if the DJ can not accomplish new highs in the next fifteen days, it had to wait until the first three weeks of July before the Summer Doldrums.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

May is almost gone

DJ Resistance:  16.715,44  All-time closing high
                            16.731       Prior all-time high 
                            16.620
                            16.580

DJ Support:        16.361,46    
                            16.357.35  May's low
                            16.312       Strong April's low
                            16.174       November's peak
                            16.015       Strong

Technical Analysis:
The DJIA is still in the two weeks range DJ16.312 - 16.715.44
The DJIA continues to act well according to technical analysis. Although it is trapped in the range, it maintains showing its bullish trend.
I quoted in my prior blog actualization " the two first supports (DJ16.352 and DJ 16.312) should work well, if that, we'll see new attempts to the highs soon" and the market did that. I felt like Napoleon.
I expected a fiercest fight in the new highs looking for new territories. I don't like this retracement, we have to pay attention to the momentum and the timing.
Another point is the volume, it was low when DJIA got new highs and a little bit higher volume when the market retraced. These new highs are dangerous with such low volume.
In summary the trend is up.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it

Fundamentals:
This week and next we are going to get important economic news to drive the market. I expect to get good news overall but not excellent. The economy is growing and the market needs the economy to keep a good step. Still we are in earnings season.
My worry is about momentum and timing. May is almost gone, the transaction volume is so low. The momentum is losing strength and the timing is driven the market to a typical neutral June.

Dear traders and investors, the market has two weeks in front of it to confirm the new high and maybe to go in unknown territories, other way is to wait until July earnings season before the summer doldrums if the summer rally. Stay tuned and cool for these two weeks.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

Sell in May and go away?

DJ Resistance:  16.631    All-time high

DJ Support:       16.352    50 Days Moving Average
                           16.312    Strong April's low
                           16.174    November's peak
                           16.015    Strong

Technical Analysis:
DJ challenged the all-time closing high and touched DJ16.620 but not the all-time high DJ16.631. DJIA is still in the range DJ16.015 - 16.631and still looking for the upside. What it has done is very constructive.
DJ has to be over DJ16.352 (50 days MA) and DJ16.312 (April's low) supports to maintain this challenge.


Fundamentals:
The first quarter GDP was extremely weak if we compare with the last two quarters of 2013. I attribute that to the bad weather and to confirm it we have to focus on April data.
- Non-farm payroll to 288.000
- Unemployment rate to 6.3%
- ISM Services is up to 55.2 from 53.1
- New orders to 58.2
- ISM Manufacturing to 54.9 from 53.7
All these news drive us to think that the U.S.economy is improving. We will face important economic news in the next three days. May came and this and the next week are fundamentals to see new highs soon.
I feel myself comfortable with the upside bias but I worry about momentum.
Dear traders and investors, the two first supports should work well, if that, we'll see new attempts to the highs soon.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises