S&P at important resistance retest

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11 All-time high
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,900      20 Days moving average
                         
DJ Support:      21,840
                           21,770
                           21,687      50 Days moving average
                           21,682      July peak
                           21,600
                           21,535      June peak
                           21,200
                           21,115      Strong breakout
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,700      200 Days moving average
                           20,590
                           20,400      Very strong
                           20,125      January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678      January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is the strongest index between the three. DJIA has established a consolidation range DJ21,600 - 22,179.11 and has maintained over DJ21,682 strong breakout and July peak.
S&P is facing important resistance at SP2,453, it was a major support. The bulls need S&P to overcome this level to recover from the damaged chart. S&P supports are at SP2,437 and SP2,417, SP2,405 is a very important support below it the market could get a correction.
Considering August downturn and the consolidation phase we can consider that the uptrend is still in place.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Geopolitical, especially North Korea, are playing in this summer doldrums and the stock market got a downturn during August.
Economy is looking well. This week we have two important facts for the stocks, first is Mr. Trump's speech about tax cuts, every investor and individuals have to assess how it affects them. Secondly, the market is going to receive important economic reports like ISM Services, ISM Manufacturing, Government Employment Situation and Personal Income, GDP update.
The most relevant should be the tax cuts because lower corporate taxes mean better corporate earnings then better stock prices, higher dividends, more money in the consumers' hands and better corporate sales and consumption.

Dear traders and investors, the tax argument is more important as incentive for the stock market but both are necessary to visit SP2,500.  

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                         

Correction and Bounce Up?

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11 New all-time high
                           22,000
                           21,910      20 Days moving average

DJ Support:     21,840
                          21,682       July peak
                          21,640       50 Days moving average
                          21,535       June peak
                          21,305
                          21,200
                          21,115       Strong breakout
                          20,980
                          20,800
                          20,600       200 Days moving average
                          20,590
                          20,400       Very strong
                          20,125       January peak
                          19,732
                          19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA supported well on supports like DJ21,590 (50 days moving average) - DJ21,682 (July peak) which put the correction and the bounce up in a positive path to the upside according to technical analysis. The correction damage in the DJIA charts are almost irrelevant but conversely with the S&P the case is the contrary, the correction has damaged the charts.
DJ22,000 retest should be an important gauge to assess the bulls and bears. DJIA is the strongest index between the three. DJIA is still over its 50 days moving average instead S&P broke down the same support.
S&P needs to overcome SP2,453 to repair the chart and to put the index on the upside.
DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE remain firmly bullish in the longer-term.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

 Fundamentals:
The market got a healthy correction, the markets never go higher and higher forever, they move like the teeth of a saw. The correction is the opportunity to assess your portfolios and rotate some stock if you consider that their growth projection is weak.
In summary the economy is in a solid health, the corporate earnings are growing and the bond rates are so low then the best place to be is in the stock market. It is very possible the markets could do a deeper correction until SP2,400 and DJ21,115.
It is important to watch the consumers because they do 66% of the U.S. economy. Consumer Sentiment figures spiked on last week report, the unemployment rate is near the lows and Redbook weekly retail sales showed solid growth.
All of these indicates that the correction should be limited and the north continues to show a positive landscape.
North Korea and bomb attack in Barcelona are placed in the air during the last three weeks and they affect investors' confidence.
Market is expecting Janet Yellen's participation on Federal Reserve's economic policy simposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this coming Friday.

Dear traders and investors, the markets are in their summer doldrums and geopolitical have played against them but fundamentals economic strength indicate that there is still room to the upside in the aged bull market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                  

The Trend is Still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11  New all-time high
                           22,000

DJ Support:      21,840       Strong & 20 days moving average
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,590       50 Days moving average
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,305
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong breakout
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,530       200 Days moving average
                           20,400       Very strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJ21,840 has proven to be an excellent support and the bounce from this level is constructive for the bulls. We can define a consolidation range DJ21,840 - 22,179.11.
S&P has a strong support at SP,2440 and technically is SP2,449-2,553.
The three indexes have a bullish trend although the downturn in August. DJIA is the strongest index between the three.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                         
Fundamentals:
Geopolitical risks relaxed this week, U.S.A. versus North Korea, and the stock market recovered part of last week losses. Investors have to focus in the long term trends and not on geopolitical rhetoric, we have to pay attention to it but the focus in the long term trend.
When the economy, interest rates and corporate earnings growth, the bull market will extend its existence until the stock prices get overvalued. Right now we are still in a bull market without overvalue in the stock market then please do not short , stay focus in the long term trends and be long, you can buy the deeps (dips) or maintain the course on your long term portfolio strategy on the long side. Economic evidence is for the long side. We have to be long until the stock market prices become overvalued and out of control. At that time we will sale and possibly short as the money managers do.
August and part of September are difficult months for trading, this is the summer doldrums.

Dear traders and investors, the target SP2,500 is on the way and I suggest you to consider that at this point in this aged bull market the breakouts are not followed by an explosion instead by profits taken.



Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                 

Dow Jones new all-time high

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11 New all-time high
                           21,930
                           21,840
                         
DJ Support:      21,682       July peak
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,485       50 Days moving average
                           21,305
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong breakout
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,410       200 Days moving average
                           20,400       Very strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           20,000
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA was notching 9 straight record closes until this Tuesday. S&P is consolidating in a range during the last days. Let's say that DJIA is the strongest between the three indexes.
July peak DJ21,682 is the strongest support for DJIA in the short term and for S&P is SP2,453 (June peak).
The three indexes shows a constructive pictures in the medium term. S&P has to fight to clear SP2,500, the breakout would open higher perspectives for the market.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Economic news and corporate earnings season show the path to a higher levels in the stock market. The summer doldrums begin this or next week. The weak ISM Services report last week could not stop the Dow Jones 9 session winning streak closes. S&P target in the near term is SP2,500 and we should see it at SP2,600 before the year's end.
Last Friday jobs growth announcement and the unemployment rate at 4.3% pushed up the interest rates which affects the bond market because it could bring wage inflation. If you are in the conservative bond market it is time to asses them and consider to discharge the positions and maybe to short them.
Geopolitical is affecting the markets right now with the North Korea menace about Guam Islands and Mr. Trump answer "fury and fierce".
Dear traders and investors, markets should consolidate their advances into the next four weeks in my opinion. Markets could be boring or very volatile in this period, it is hard to anticipate because the volume has increased this year and the low interest rates are walking orderly to the upside besides the geopolitical unbalance. I am still bullish with the stock market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

The Trend still is Bullish

DJ Resistance:  21,990.96  All-time high

DJ Support:      21,682       Breakout
                           21,600       20 Days moving average
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,400       50 Days moving average
                           21,305
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong breakout
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Very strong
                           20,355       200 Days moving average
                           20,125       January peak
                           20,000
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is almost at DJ22,000 and that goal is in sight. During last week the DJIA has done a new all-time high in its life.
Strong support is at breakout point at DJ21,682 and DJ21,535. DJIA is actually flying and stronger than the other two indexes. S&P is weaker and consolidated just below its all-time high but it has formed a bull flag.
The trend is bullish-leaning for the three indexes barring a violation of supports.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Earnings season is strong and the bulls are in a party. We have continued getting positive economic news like ISM Manufacturing Index at 56.3, New Orders at 60.4, Redbook Weekly Retail Sale +2.8% all these mean more growth forwards.
Markets will be in the summer doldrums in one or two weeks and it is not easy to read it just now. We should enter in a consolidation phase.
People is asking about the next bear market. We are in a long bull market considered mature. There are no signs of a bear market coming. We have to pay attention to:
1. - Long bull market, the trend is your friend
2. - Strong earnings season, actually this Q2 earnings are solid.
3. - +2.6 GDP report shows growth.
4. - 10 year Treasury yields 2.3% p.a. which is really low, the stock market yields from 5 to 10% p.a.

Dear traders and investors, I am very pleased and proud to have helped you to navigate in these markets from DJ14,000 to DJ22,000 during these almost four years. I promise you to continue doing my best.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises