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martes, 23 de diciembre de 2014

Christmas Rally Dow Jones 18,069

Dow Jones Industrial Average overcame DJ18,000. It is in unknown territories in rally mode. Target accomplished.
The long term trend is bullish. I still think that we are going to see S&P at SP2,100 before the year's end.
I was comfortable and confident with DJ18,000 target before 2015 because I was expecting good U.S. economic news in spite of the weakness in the rest of the world, and the low interest rates. Besides the technical analysis which is clearly constructive to the bull side.

Dear traders and investors, my goal is to help you in navigating the market. I put all my knowledge, experience and strength of mi person to write this small blog every week. It is a passion and I feel the responsibility with you. Nothing is for granted in life but I am with you.
I want to thank my colleague who worked with me in Citibank who encouraged me to write about the market.
See you in January, I wish you;

!Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
!Happy Holidays!
!Seasons Greetings!


Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises


martes, 16 de diciembre de 2014

What so hectic days for the stock market

DJ Resistance:  17,991     All-time record high
                           17,726.55
                           17,600
                           17,525
                           17,278 - 17,350

DJ Support:      16,990
                           16,588
                           16,320
                           16,015
                           15,854

Technical Analysis:
What a damage we can see in the charts. The strong support at DJ16,278 was penetrated and left far. The DJIA needs to overcome this level and also to recover a level over its 50 days moving average to look for stabilization. In the last seven sessions, six were very negative and only one positive. DJIA has lost almost 5.125% during this period.
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have the same backdrop.
The trend is bullish in the long run, please watch the six years bull market chart. It is not clear in the short term.
We have to pay attention to DJ16,278. In that level there was a strong battle, please watch volume, and sellers fought buyers. Sellers were attracted there.
Let's see how the market reacts during these three days.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


Fundamentals:
I will relay last week fundamentals blog:
"We are clear that U.S. economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth rate (maybe below 7% of GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs they are not the same as 2006 jobs, that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences." What I missed is the Russia case and the rubble.

Dear traders and investors, next economic news should be positive. This correction or reversal should be limited. Actually, sellers are driving the market, they are present and acting releasing their stocks into the market making the offer higher than the demand. Sellers are investors, traders and fund managers taking profit from their positions as I explained few weeks ago and cleaning their portfolios. For that, they sell bad or weak positions and take loses preparing the taxes to pay until April 2015. My expectations are more hectic days in the stock market and a Christmas Rally over December 20th. Please be calm and cool!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

martes, 9 de diciembre de 2014

Sharp reversal from new all-time high, almost DJ18,000

DJ Resistance:  17,991     All-time record high
                           17,894     Prior all-time high

DJ Support:      17,726.55     Strong
                           17,600
                           17,525
                           17,278 - 17,350 Very strong
                           16,990

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has reversed sharp from its new all-time record high, it almost got DJ18,000.
This sharp reverse is important because sellers came at an important psychological level DJ18,000 and they battled the bulls this time. What I like is that there is a clear short term range formed during the last two weeks. This range should be the consolidation area for the market rest (DJ17,726 - 17,991). The market can stay in the range for ten days more fighting the bulls and bears. This fight will be defined with or not a Christmas Rally.
DJIA is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
It is hard to determine the DJIA supports due to the steep slope of the Dow Jones bounce up from mid-October and besides the market is in unknown territory.
The breakout point DJ17,278 - 17,350 should provide a formidable and strong support attracting buyers.
Considering DJIA behavior, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE also, the bull trend for medium and long term maintains its bullish perspective. The three indexes are well backed barring a break through supports.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are clear that U.S, economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth (maybe below 7% GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs, they are not the same as 2006 jobs that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences.
Dear traders and investors, we are facing hectic movements in the next 10 days. I expect that the supports are going to work well and, if that, we are going to be compensate by our Christmas Rally in the last ten days of December. Am I extremely optimistic? My nature is optimistic but I have done my due diligence. Nothing is written! be cool and navigate these markets according to your plans, stick with them!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises
                         

martes, 2 de diciembre de 2014

Dow Jones uptrend continues

DJ Resistance:        17,897       All-time record high
                                 17,879.55  All-time close high

DJ Support:            17,705       Strong
                                 17,600
                                 17,500
                                 17,278 - 17,350 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA got a 9% correction in October and continues ridding an extraordinary and powerful 7 weeks bounce.
This bounce up is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The breakout level of this up movement is DJ17,278 - 17,350 which is equivalent to the height of September. This last movement should find a very strong support at those levels, buyers should come to buy and fight bears there. It is almost a steep line to the new highs which makes difficult to determine small supports in the race. All this defines a constructive up move and confirm the bullish bias for December. The long term trend is bullish for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This V Reversal has an academic target at DJ18,600.
Next target for the year end is DJ18,000 and S&P2,100.
Long over DJ17,278.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are going to get important economic news from this Wednesday specially non-farm payroll and unemployment rate on Friday. These figures during December are going to drive the market. December is a good month for the stock market. Traditionally we get Christmas rally and I think this December will follow the same pattern because U.S.A. economy is improving. UE economy is still weak but in a better shape, China probably will define a lower 2015 GDP target, Japan is in recession but asking for a new mandate to fix its deflationary and weak economy.
The market is expecting a deep correction at same point. The participants are nervous and are going to get any excuse to take profits. For example last Friday and Monday were profit taking days with the excuse of a black Friday figures disappointment.
My expectations for December are some market rest with some profits taking in the first 20 days of the month and a clear Christmas rally in the last 10 days of December. Remember I was wrong with my November expectations when I thought about market rest in the first two weeks, market always pointed up and finally we got our Thanksgiving rally.
Dear traders and investors, stay long over DJ17,288, I expect a good December for us.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises