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miércoles, 24 de mayo de 2017

The Trend is Bullish





Pardon me for not updating my blog but I'm currently in Florida visiting my children and grandchildren. Also, I injured my right arm at home and this makes it very difficult to write.

I will try to update it by May 31st.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

miércoles, 3 de mayo de 2017

NASDAQ new record highs

DJ Resistance:  21,169       All-time high
                           21,115       All-time record close
                           21,100       March peak

DJ Support:      20,909       Top of the gap
                           20,850
                           20,776       50 Days moving average
                           20,720       20 Days moving average
                           20,600       Negative trend line
                           20,410       Strong March low
                           20,125       January peak
                           20,000       Very strong
                           19,800
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low
                           19,400      200 Days moving average
                           19,200
                           18,800
                           18,668       Old all-time high
                           18,247       August low
                           18,000
                           17,833.23  November low (Trump rally)
                           17,579       Inflection point
                           17,125       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P have stayed over the negative trend line breakout which is supportive for the indexes and bullish. The trend line acts as support now DJ20,850. DJIA and S&P did a Gap in the April late, the top of this gap also acts as support DJ20,909. The next resistances are the all-time close high DJ21,115 and the all-time high DJ21,169.
The NASDAQ Composite has done seven straight new all-time highs, DJIA and S&P have broken up the negative trend line and have done a gap (top of the gap DJ20,909). They have slept over it during five straight days which is supportive and bullish forming a tightened range.
On May first begins the worst seasonally six months for the stock market, "sell May and go away".
In technical analysis what important is the behaavior of the stock market facing resistances and it seems that there is not selling pressures. Said that, the trend is bullish-leaning barring a violation of DJ20,000.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


 Fundamentals:
May first is the beginning of the worst season for the stock market statistically until September.
Earnings season is positive, the corporations are doing well, this is the best earnings season in two years, conversely the Q1 GDP was weak +0.7%. The explanation is that the global economy is rebounding, Europe is growing slow but growing and their last manufacturing index hit the highest level since 2011. Japan, parts of South America and even China are showing growth. About 38% of the earnings season of S&P 500 come from outside of U.S.A.

In the U.S.A. market is expecting important economic data like ADP Employment and ISM Services, Non-farm payroll, unemployment rate. If positive data arrives could bolster the growth trend that we have witnessed in the previous months.

The three scenarios that the stock market is facing are: break over SP2,400 and DJ21,169, second consolidation below those levels and third is a correction. In my opinion the first two scenarios are more possible by large.

Dear traders and investors, maybe it is the time to rotate part of your portfolio to European stocks. The best location for 2015 and 2016 was the U.S. stocks but if the U.S. growth slows it would be convenient to have part of your portfolio in Europe. I stay bullish at this time.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!