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miércoles, 20 de septiembre de 2017

Confirmed bullish-leaning

DJ Resistance:  22,386.01  All-time high
                           22,370.80  Record close

DJ Support:      22,179.11  Old all-time high
                           22,119       Old-time close
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,820       50 Days moving average
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong
                           20,980
                           20,910       200 Days moving average
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,115       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
S&P and DJIA has confirmed its uptrend with the break out and the constant higher close during five days. S&P is atop SP2,500 which is very bullish because it has reached a technical target and stays closing over it.
First important support for S&P is SP2,480 and for DJIA is DJ21,119, next is DJ22,040 (early September peak, watch the chart).
DJIA following targets are DJ22,550 and 22,750. For S&P is SP2,550 which we should get at the end of the year.
DJIA consolidation range is DJ22,119 - 22,386.01.
DJIA and S&P are exploring uncharted territory and NASDAQ COMPOSITE is attempting 6,460 mayor resistance. The trend in the intermediate term is clearly bullish.
50 days moving average has acted as notable support, we have to pay attention to it.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Last week was the best in gains since last December 2016.
Market expects substantial gains in the coming future based in an economy that becomes stronger every day, better corporate earnings and the awaited Trump's tax cut.
Empire State Manufacturing came at 24.4 versus expected19.0. FED considers "favorable macroeconomic factors supporting the backing for current equity valuations".
This is a long bull market that began in 2009 and confirmed with the breakout at the beginning to 2013 that means more than 8 years and there is room for more time to reign.
The markets are awaiting the FOMC Meeting Announcement on rates and FOMC Forecast today at 1 P.M.
I don't expect any surprise, the interest rates should stay as they are. Experts and market watchers will interpreted the FED's words and pay especial attention on when the FED will begin to unwind its balance sheet.

Dear traders and investors, the markets are not easy and to get our conclusions is very hard. It is simple when we expressed them in a few words that they don't show all the drafts that we have written. I am optimistic with the stock market let's say bullish and expect SP2,550 and DJ22,550 for the end of the year. Geopolitical risks are alive but if you are invested in solid assets don't worry.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

miércoles, 13 de septiembre de 2017

S&P New Record High

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11  All-time high
                           22,119       Record close

DJ Support:      22,000
                           21,912
                           21,850       20 Days moving average
                           21,783       50 Days moving average
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong
                           20,980
                           20,810       200 Days moving average
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
S&P did a new all-time high, SP2,496.48. DJIA should follow S&P and get a new all-time high. DJIA got a new close high at DJ22,118.86.
DJIA spiked from the support 50 days moving average tested last week and twice in August. Technically it is very positive for the index. S&P also bounced up after tested its technical support SP2,453 last week.
The charts show bullish trend for the midterm of the three indexes. S&P new target should be SP2,550. Next target for DJIA if it breaks out its all-time high with a follow through should be DJ22,750.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.



Fundamentals:
The worst of Irma hurricane is over. It was a relief for the traders and they drove S&P to a record new high.
The measures taken like the swift aid packages and all the U.S.A. rebuilding efforts (replacing cars and trucks, new electronics, clothes, furniture, rebuilding businesses and homes, infrastructure, oust debris and so on) will participate in the economy supporting an increase in the GDP. This cost will be paid by the insurances, districts, states, families, etc. and it will stimulate the economy.
Some traders and investors think that "cash is king" at this point of the markets. This attitude is wrong right now in my humble opinion. You should holding positions to take profit of the up move that we are witnessing. We know that in this aged bull market we don't see a follow through when the market breaks an important resistance instead profit taking comes but with limited sellers. Then the up move continues. That is the reason to be holding positions. Do you remember when the S&P took SP2,300, part of the market thought that it was the limit to the highs, now we are almost at  SP2,500.

Dear traders and investors, the U.S.A. economy and the corporations are doing well, I think the horizon until the end of the year and maybe more is clean and without clouds. The best season of the year for the stock market is October to May, I am still bullish and recommend to buy the dips. Hold positions.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                        
                         

miércoles, 6 de septiembre de 2017

Stocks still bullish although geopolitical fears

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11 All-time high
                           22,118      Record close
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,900      20 Dayd moving average
                           21,770
                 
DJ Support:      21,720      50 Days moving average
                           21,682      July peak
                           21,600
                           21,535      June peak
                           21,200
                           21,115      Strong
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,780      200 Days moving average
                           20,590
                           20,400      Very strong
                           20,125      January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678      January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA broke up through DJ22,000 and then reversed losing 250 points to close this Tuesday at DJ21,753.31. Next important supports are DJ21,682 and 21,600. S&P support is SP2,453  for Nasdaq Composite is 6,342.
Amid geopolitical tensions about North Korea we can say that technically the bullish trend is still in place and the indexes are well supported according to the charts.
DJIA founded support at DJ21,682 and DJ21,720 (50 days moving average), this support area is well defined and that means that the index is technically supported. The same for the other two indexes.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

 Fundamentals:
Last Friday we have gotten the August non-farm payroll +165,000 new jobs less than 180,000 expected and jobless rate at 4.4%. It is a good number especially because it was done in the private sector. Manufacturing was also a positive number and the Consumer Sentiment Index at 96.8 also less than expected 97.4 but still a good number.
The revision of the Q2GDP was up to3% from 2.7%. Redbook weekly retail sales showed +4.3% related to the last year. Both figures are good for the stock market.
We are witnessing a pull back of the market due the geopolitical tensions, North Korea continues with missile and nuclear experiments and does not want to low the escalations. The market is facing other threats this September like the Hurricane Harvey bill relief, U.S.A. budget, debt ceiling vote. Markets are always confronting threats and uncertainties.
The market had been concentrating on the sustained improved economic figures and the positive corporate earnings and sales.

Dear traders and investors, my opinion is that the stock market backdrop is still bullish and we have to see any pullback as temporarily. Buy on the deeps.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                 
                         

miércoles, 30 de agosto de 2017

S&P at important resistance retest

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11 All-time high
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,900      20 Days moving average
                         
DJ Support:      21,840
                           21,770
                           21,687      50 Days moving average
                           21,682      July peak
                           21,600
                           21,535      June peak
                           21,200
                           21,115      Strong breakout
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,700      200 Days moving average
                           20,590
                           20,400      Very strong
                           20,125      January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678      January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is the strongest index between the three. DJIA has established a consolidation range DJ21,600 - 22,179.11 and has maintained over DJ21,682 strong breakout and July peak.
S&P is facing important resistance at SP2,453, it was a major support. The bulls need S&P to overcome this level to recover from the damaged chart. S&P supports are at SP2,437 and SP2,417, SP2,405 is a very important support below it the market could get a correction.
Considering August downturn and the consolidation phase we can consider that the uptrend is still in place.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.



Fundamentals:
Geopolitical, especially North Korea, are playing in this summer doldrums and the stock market got a downturn during August.
Economy is looking well. This week we have two important facts for the stocks, first is Mr. Trump's speech about tax cuts, every investor and individuals have to assess how it affects them. Secondly, the market is going to receive important economic reports like ISM Services, ISM Manufacturing, Government Employment Situation and Personal Income, GDP update.
The most relevant should be the tax cuts because lower corporate taxes mean better corporate earnings then better stock prices, higher dividends, more money in the consumers' hands and better corporate sales and consumption.

Dear traders and investors, the tax argument is more important as incentive for the stock market but both are necessary to visit SP2,500.  

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                         

miércoles, 23 de agosto de 2017

Correction and Bounce Up?

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11 New all-time high
                           22,000
                           21,910      20 Days moving average

DJ Support:     21,840
                          21,682       July peak
                          21,640       50 Days moving average
                          21,535       June peak
                          21,305
                          21,200
                          21,115       Strong breakout
                          20,980
                          20,800
                          20,600       200 Days moving average
                          20,590
                          20,400       Very strong
                          20,125       January peak
                          19,732
                          19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA supported well on supports like DJ21,590 (50 days moving average) - DJ21,682 (July peak) which put the correction and the bounce up in a positive path to the upside according to technical analysis. The correction damage in the DJIA charts are almost irrelevant but conversely with the S&P the case is the contrary, the correction has damaged the charts.
DJ22,000 retest should be an important gauge to assess the bulls and bears. DJIA is the strongest index between the three. DJIA is still over its 50 days moving average instead S&P broke down the same support.
S&P needs to overcome SP2,453 to repair the chart and to put the index on the upside.
DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE remain firmly bullish in the longer-term.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

 Fundamentals:
The market got a healthy correction, the markets never go higher and higher forever, they move like the teeth of a saw. The correction is the opportunity to assess your portfolios and rotate some stock if you consider that their growth projection is weak.
In summary the economy is in a solid health, the corporate earnings are growing and the bond rates are so low then the best place to be is in the stock market. It is very possible the markets could do a deeper correction until SP2,400 and DJ21,115.
It is important to watch the consumers because they do 66% of the U.S. economy. Consumer Sentiment figures spiked on last week report, the unemployment rate is near the lows and Redbook weekly retail sales showed solid growth.
All of these indicates that the correction should be limited and the north continues to show a positive landscape.
North Korea and bomb attack in Barcelona are placed in the air during the last three weeks and they affect investors' confidence.
Market is expecting Janet Yellen's participation on Federal Reserve's economic policy simposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this coming Friday.

Dear traders and investors, the markets are in their summer doldrums and geopolitical have played against them but fundamentals economic strength indicate that there is still room to the upside in the aged bull market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                  

miércoles, 16 de agosto de 2017

The Trend is Still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11  New all-time high
                           22,000

DJ Support:      21,840       Strong & 20 days moving average
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,590       50 Days moving average
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,305
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong breakout
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,530       200 Days moving average
                           20,400       Very strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJ21,840 has proven to be an excellent support and the bounce from this level is constructive for the bulls. We can define a consolidation range DJ21,840 - 22,179.11.
S&P has a strong support at SP,2440 and technically is SP2,449-2,553.
The three indexes have a bullish trend although the downturn in August. DJIA is the strongest index between the three.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                         
Fundamentals:
Geopolitical risks relaxed this week, U.S.A. versus North Korea, and the stock market recovered part of last week losses. Investors have to focus in the long term trends and not on geopolitical rhetoric, we have to pay attention to it but the focus in the long term trend.
When the economy, interest rates and corporate earnings growth, the bull market will extend its existence until the stock prices get overvalued. Right now we are still in a bull market without overvalue in the stock market then please do not short , stay focus in the long term trends and be long, you can buy the deeps (dips) or maintain the course on your long term portfolio strategy on the long side. Economic evidence is for the long side. We have to be long until the stock market prices become overvalued and out of control. At that time we will sale and possibly short as the money managers do.
August and part of September are difficult months for trading, this is the summer doldrums.

Dear traders and investors, the target SP2,500 is on the way and I suggest you to consider that at this point in this aged bull market the breakouts are not followed by an explosion instead by profits taken.



Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                 

miércoles, 9 de agosto de 2017

Dow Jones new all-time high

DJ Resistance:  22,179.11 New all-time high
                           21,930
                           21,840
                         
DJ Support:      21,682       July peak
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,485       50 Days moving average
                           21,305
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong breakout
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,410       200 Days moving average
                           20,400       Very strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           20,000
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA was notching 9 straight record closes until this Tuesday. S&P is consolidating in a range during the last days. Let's say that DJIA is the strongest between the three indexes.
July peak DJ21,682 is the strongest support for DJIA in the short term and for S&P is SP2,453 (June peak).
The three indexes shows a constructive pictures in the medium term. S&P has to fight to clear SP2,500, the breakout would open higher perspectives for the market.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Economic news and corporate earnings season show the path to a higher levels in the stock market. The summer doldrums begin this or next week. The weak ISM Services report last week could not stop the Dow Jones 9 session winning streak closes. S&P target in the near term is SP2,500 and we should see it at SP2,600 before the year's end.
Last Friday jobs growth announcement and the unemployment rate at 4.3% pushed up the interest rates which affects the bond market because it could bring wage inflation. If you are in the conservative bond market it is time to asses them and consider to discharge the positions and maybe to short them.
Geopolitical is affecting the markets right now with the North Korea menace about Guam Islands and Mr. Trump answer "fury and fierce".
Dear traders and investors, markets should consolidate their advances into the next four weeks in my opinion. Markets could be boring or very volatile in this period, it is hard to anticipate because the volume has increased this year and the low interest rates are walking orderly to the upside besides the geopolitical unbalance. I am still bullish with the stock market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises