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miércoles, 17 de octubre de 2018

200 Days MA supported

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old-time high (January peak)
                           26,289       20 Days moving average
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,979       50 Days moving average
                           25,835.35  February high

 DJ Support:     25,835.35  February peak
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,119       200 Days moving average
                           24,900       October low
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
DJIA after have done a new historical high retraced aggressively to just the important support at 200 days moving average and then bounced up. This support is a bull-bear gauge and the bulls are winning.
October low is the three moths low and is the support now.
Next important resistance is DJ25,879 (50 days moving average).
The short-term trend is bearish but midterm is bullish. We have to pay attention to the chart damage, if the DJIA exceeds the 50 days moving average the trend will be bullish again.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Earnings season is back and brought buyers generating a rebound after last week retracement. The start of earnings season was very strong.
Uncertainty is still in play due the difference between Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. caused by the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In addition, the trade war with China brings uncertainty. In the European Union the Brexit weights with the Italian budget and the Italian bonds prices. 
The economic news is still positive and promise good results for the corporation and stronger consumption. Industrial Production rose up 0.3%. The lasts economic reports are bullish.
Last week pullback is healthy for the market and it reacted technically and positive with the new earning season. The continuing strength of the economy and the Trump tax reduction are going to impact on the corporation profits like the future stronger consumption. 

Dear traders and investors, I don't take too much of your time, my expectations are a strong economy, excellent business for the corporations, better standard of live for individuals therefore the stock market will look for new historical highs.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises


miércoles, 3 de octubre de 2018

Dow Jones at New Historical High

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time High

DJ Support:      26,760       September peak
                           26,616       January peak
                           26,312       20 Days moving average
                           26,168       August peak
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,908       50 Days moving average
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,082       200 Moving average
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500       Strong
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones did a new all-time high and S&P is within striking distance to do the same. NASDAQ Composite is alike.
Start October, the beginning of the four quarter, shows a bullish trend looking for unknown territories. The near-term inflection point is DJ26,616 January peak. The third week September gap was filled with the DJIA rally promising new all-time highs.
DJIA 20, 50- and 200-days moving average are crossed pointing to the upside which is very bullish and they should give to DJIA good support in the case of retracement. DJIA is behaving technically. The price action is constructive.
The trend of the three benchmark is bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
What a monthly, October, and fourth 2018 quarter start!
What we have seen these two last days is very bullish. This last up move is based in the fabulous economy. We see the historic level of employment, the growth of the economy, fantastic consumer confidence and therefore the corporate earnings with the promise for better results in the future. All these in spite of the trade war uncertainty. Thanks God the TLC was restructured and reconfirmed.
The growth of the economy is accelerating to 3.1% in 2018 after year of 1.5%. It is almost the double.
The Tax cut and deregulation taken by President Trump is rejuvenating the U.S.A. economy.
Dear traders and investors, this bull market have 12 years long, it is a record but this time the promise is "the best is yet to come".

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         

miércoles, 19 de septiembre de 2018

Dow Jones looking for old all-time High

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time High
                           26,435       January gap upper side
                           26,338       January gap downside
                         
DJ Support:      26,000       Strong
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,068       50 Days moving average
                           25,000       200 Days moving average
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500       Strong
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap

Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones has topped August peak at DJ26,168 and is ready to try to close January gap.
S&P is well supported at SP2,873 and the breakout at SP2,873. NASDAQ Composite is the softer but well supported.
DJIA is also well supported by two positive trend lines (please watch the chart). DJIA has formed a bull flag in the last days daring its seven months high.
The September path is bullish and I expect a prompt visit to the DJIA all-time high.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The good economic news was imposed about the uncertainty created by the possible trade war between U.S.A. and China, and U.S.A. and Canada.
Consumer sentiment at 100.8 from last moth 96.2
The Business Inventory report year to year showed that the inventories pace at 4.3% lags the year to year pace for sales at 8.1%.

Dear traders and investors, as I have explained in prior blogs I expect an excellent 2018 second semester. Technical analysis and fundamentals indicated an upward trend: bullish.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises  


                         
                         
                               

miércoles, 29 de agosto de 2018

S&P500 and NASDAQ at New Record Highs

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                            26,435       January gap upper side
                            26,338       January gap downside
                         
DJ Support:       26,000
                            25,888
                            25,835.35  February high
                            25,691
                            25,548       20 Days moving average
                            25,079       50 Days moving average
                            24,991       Strong
                            24,816       2017 high
                            24,786       200 Days moving average
                            24,719       2017 close
                            24,000       Strong
                            23,509       Strong
                            23,250       Very strong
                            23,173       Strong, gap
                            23,002       Strong, gap
                            22,890
                            22,795
                            22,420       Strong, breakout
                            22,119
                            21,912
                            21,600
                            21,535

Technical Analysis:
S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite have done new record highs and it seems that there are not sellers at those level. When that, the absent of sellers will draw buyers at SP2,873 (breakout and old all-time high). If the index stays over this level the S&P target will be SP2,923.
Dow Jones is lagging also this time but it has a clear up trend. It should visit its all-time high at DJ26,616.71.
Taking the DJIA August high and August low the target is 26,423 equivalents to the S&P 500 target at SP2,923.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite are touching uncharted territory. The three indexes trend is bullish.
DJIA over DJ26,000 is bullish and if it breaks the all-time high DJ26,616.71 the new target should be DJ 29,800.
The previous up move in August and its down retracement to 50 days moving average, and its bounce up with new upside move should touch DJ26,423 as a target just the January gap area DJ26,338 - 26,435.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
August is almost ended; this month is painful for traders because the volume decreases and senior traders take holidays. That explains the high volatility despite the Summer doldrums.
The market took the up way again due the news about China and its will to avoid a trade war, the commercial agreement between U.S.A. and Mexico, and finally the positive expectations about U.S.A - Canada commercial agreement.
The bullish bias is supported by the robust economy of U.S.A. and the consumers that support the promised positive corporate results based on the reduction of taxes.
Consumer Confidence Index at 133.4 which is the strongest in almost 17 years. Redbook report about retail sales in a same store increased 5.1% in a y/y base, last month it was up 4.7%.

Dear traders and investors, be prepared for the new month coming next week. The market activity will increase and I expect to see new all-time highs this year and I am almost sure that this pace will continue for a considerable period.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                         
                           
                           
                           
                           
                         

miércoles, 15 de agosto de 2018

Dow Jones Well Supported

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,691
                           25,500       Gap upperside
                           25,400       Gap downside
                         
DJ Support:      25,215
                           25,150
                           25,086      May high
                           25,000       Strong, 50 days MA
                           24,945
                           24,816       2017 high
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,700       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
The bull trend is in play. The indexes have retraced during the last trading days but the trend have not changed. The DJIA last retracement is more pronounced than the S&P.  DJIA is supported by the key negative trend line (please watch the chart). Support at DJ25,150 is crucial and is going to act as a gauge for the bulls and bears. We have to assess the bounce from that support because it is going to define if the bull trend continues. Next support is the 50 days moving average at DJ25,000 which is pointing to the support at DJ 25,120 - 25,150.
The three financial indexes have well supported during this last downturn. DJ25,835.35 (February high) is the next target for DJIA and the bulls have to give the battle there.
DJIA mid-term bias is bullish barring a violation of the supports.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                         
Fundamentals:
Trade war is weighing on the financial markets and now Turkey with its weak Lira is on the table. President Erdogan is claiming to U.S.A. the repatriation of Fethullah Gulen, a leader of the movement against Erdogan. President trump claims to Erdogan the repatriation of the evangelical Andrew Branson. President Trump tried to negotiate the exchange of them pressing Erdogan with higher tariffs for the Turkish steel and aluminum, the Lira felt immeadiately and the crisis could affect Europe especially the Spanish, French and German banks.
Every time that the three indexes take the way to the upside looking for their resistances international political disagreement frustrate the upside movement despite the robust U.S. economy.
Also remember that August is a lazy month for the stock market due the Summer doldrums. Senior traders are in holidays. You can realize that looking at the volume.
The economy is vigorous, last Small Business Optimism Index showed 107.9 from prior 107.2. Redbook retail sales on same stores was up 4.5% on year to year basis. Inflation is not a concern.

Dear traders and investors, August is a hard month for the markets, I expect the market in the range barring an important violation. My bias is to the upside this semester what worries me is the political events.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         
                               

miércoles, 1 de agosto de 2018

Bull Trend

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,000

DJ Support:      25,402
                           25,086       May high
                           24,989       20 Days moving average
                           24,945
                           24,902       50 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 High
                           24,819       200 Days moving high
                           24,719       2017 Close
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Strong, gap
                           23,173
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has higher lows from April's low. Same picture has S&P 500. That is bullish.
Both indexes are over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average and those moving averages are pointing up in their natural positions let's say first 20, second 50 and third 200 days. They clean the field for the bulls.
The first six months of the year had DJIA and S&P indexes in a range. NASDAQ Composite got a new all-time high.
The important DJIA support DJ 23,250 was fought in the last semester by the bears twice getting the low at DJ23,344. The support worked well.
The consolidation range for the semester is DJ 23,250 - 26,616.71. The short-term consolidation range is DJ24,000 - 25,835.35.
S&P support at SP2,802.
The trend is bullish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The markets continue with their ups and down but showing resilience. In summary they go up step by step.
U.S.A. and EU reached an agreement on trade. Zero tariffs on non-automotive industrial goods are the goal, steel and aluminum the same. They also agreed to reduce tariffs on cars. U.S.A., Mexico and Canada are working on the same way. China tries to collaborate and avoid a trade war. Intentions are not an agreement signed but show the goals. Nobody in the world wants a trade war.
We are in earnings season and after three or four weeks in this process it is normally to take profits. This season is very positive notwithstanding Twitter and Facebook.
The economy also is doing well, GDP grew up 4.1%. The markets are receiving promising news like Consumer Confidence raised at 127.4 from last month 126. Also, employment is in an excellent position near its record. Redbook, retail sales, showed same stores sales are growing at 4.2% , up from last month pace 3.8%. Chicago Purchasing Manager Index 65.5 from last month 64.1. Personal Income grew 0.4% like Personal Spending up 0.4%.
The markets are ready for new earnings reports today. FOMC Meeting Announcement today at 2 P.M., Fed is expected to keep rates steady and employment figures this coming Friday.
The markets expect two more rates hike this year.

Dear traders and investors, positive news from the markets and the economy outweigh the negatives. The strong economy is decisive for the consumers and therefore for the corporations. I expect a surge in the stock market this second semester of 2017.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         
                         

miércoles, 18 de julio de 2018

S&P & Dow Jones at mayor resistance

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  March high
                           25,402       Mayor resistance
                         
DJ Support:      25,086       May high
                           24,945
                           24,876       2017 high
                           24,744       50 Days moving average
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,579       20 Days moving average
                           24,451       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Strong, gap
                           23,173
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
July is a positive month for the stocks. NASDAQ Composite got a new all-time high. S&P is attacking a mayor resistance SP2,802. Dow Jones is approaching a mayor resistance at DJ25,402. DJIA is the weakest index between the three.
DJIA has exceeded the resistance at DJ25,000 and has closed successfully over it in the last three sessions.
DJIA also is closing over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average. This is positive and confirm the direction of the trend.
In the intermediate and long term, the trend is bullish-leaning. The third trimester has begun with the bulls in charge.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Tariffs are weighting on the market; trade war fears are in the air. It would be higher prices for the internal consumption in the U.S.A. This country is the only one in the world that could live isolated from the rest of the world.
Earnings season begins officially this Wednesday with Alcoa, it will be after the market closes. The main focus will be on second quarter's earnings season.
Do not forget the growing corporate earnings, the rising and strengthening economy and the excellent employment figures.

Dear traders and investors, today's story is short because we could be in front of a Summer rally due earnings season's expectations. The market looks ballast for higher stock prices. Let's see it!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises