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miércoles, 14 de febrero de 2018

Rebound?

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,542       20 Days moving average
                           25,500
                           25,089       50 Days moving average
                           25,000
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,715.90  Support of old range

  DJ Support:    24,500
                           24,100
                           26,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,922       200 Days moving average
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P have rest at the resistances corresponding to the 2017 high and 2017 close DJ24,719, DJ24,876 and SP2,673, SP2,695. It is very important for the bulls and for the market recovery to overcome those levels. The retest could take some time.
The February low is the lowest level in three months. We can determine as a breakout point the 2017 high and close.
The three indexes are digesting the February damages, the market is trying to bounce up and is capped at the resistances indicated before.
The primary uptrend continues very clear but the mid-term trend is bearish.
Last week S&P tested support at 200 days moving average and bounced up.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is trying to stabilize and bouncing up. The markets have had a rapid and fierce correction. This last we were expecting and as it was long belated it could explain the frenetic movement, a 10% correction. We saw a profound profit taking, technical trading but fundamentals remain the same. The economy is doing well, the PIB is growing over 2.5 % p.a., the corporation earning are growing due of the market and the tax cut, and the consumers are well positioned.
Have we seeing the bottom of this correction? It is not possible to affirm that, the market could continue with ups and down. What we have to understand is that this correction is healthy for the market and will provide new opportunities to buy in the dips.
Next FED meeting is in March and they have announced three hikes of the interest rates for this year. We could define the consolidation range for the next months is the Friday's low and the all-time high. It is a broad range.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is at 106.9 from last month 104.9. With all the economy and momentum support there is future for the small business, pay attention to them.
Dear traders and investors, calm down and expect volatility, the trend is to the upside technically and  fundamentally supported by the economy. Financial markets are not easy. My advice is buy your selected stocks in the dips.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         

miércoles, 7 de febrero de 2018

DJIA,S&P: Major supports were violated

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,912       20 Days moving average
                           25,500
                           25,079       50 Days moving average
                           25,000

DJ Supports:    24,876       2017 peak
                           24,715.90  Support of old range
                           24,500
                           24,100
                           23,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,740       200 Days moving average
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak

Technical Analysis:
Big damages were made in the down correction from recently highs. The bulls need to repair the charts if they still wants new all-time highs.
DJIA and S&P have broken down important supports like DJ25,904, DJ24,100, 20 and 50 days moving average, and 2017 peak. The last bounce up could stop the correction.
DJIA has done a 10% correction from the all-time high DJ26,616.71. The 10% correction market at DJ23,954.
DJIA and S&P need to form an extended base to look for a new leg that will send the market for a new all-time high.
The indexes are trending to lower levels and repairs are pending before to take the way to new all-time highs.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
Fundamentals:
The market is going down and up, this is a correction 10% in the DJIA and 9.2 in the S&P. The weakest index is NASDAQ Composite.
The economy is doing very well, the tax cut will generate better corporate profits in the big, mids and small ones.
This panic is about inflation coming from possible higher salaries, we know that interest rates will be raised three times this year and the market fears a runaway inflation.
On February 8th. we have the dateline for the Spending Bill, this is tomorrow. There is no agreement in the Congress until now.
I find this correction very healthy because it will put the stock market prices in their fair value. The correction was needed to forma a solid base before the next leg up looking for the new all-time high. I understand that it is hard to go through the correction phase when you have bought at a higher price or when you how you have lost the price profit in your positions. For me these times are nice opportunities to increase the positions at good prices and you will see more volume coming to the market, they are the investors who lost the last movements to the upside, this is really healthy.

Dear traders and investors, it is difficult to feel great during these days in the stock and bond markets. I ask you to be calm and look for the market opportunities, remember I was calling for a correction or profound consolidation phase before the next leg up. Financial market are very difficult to foresee but in this case we have a solid economy, excellent corporate earnings and stable consumption. All these are rational not a story from a fortune teller. Are we out of the woods? Actually I don't know but we will and i am still positive with the stock market.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

miércoles, 31 de enero de 2018

Reverse from unknown territories.

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  New all-time high
                           26,200

DJ Support:      26,000       Light
                           25,904       Strong, support of consolidation range
                           25,788       20 Days moving average
                           25,700     
                           25,440       Strong
                           25,112
                           24,910       50 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,715.90  Strong, support of old range
                           24,500       Breakout
                           24,100
                           23,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,582       200 Days moving average
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak

Technical Analysis:
It is impressive how the market went up during January. In contrast to this scenery the three indexes reversed and came down to its important supports DJ25,904 and SP2,807.
The 20 days moving average is a solid support at DJ25,788. Next support is at DJ25,700. DJIA ends down 361 points or 1.4% the worst one-day percentage drop since May 17th. A consolidation phase has been long time overdue and probably it is developing. Although this possible reverse the trend continues showing a bullish trend in the mid and long term.
The response to supports will be important for the trend in the short term.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


 
Fundamentals:
The confirmation that the FED is going to raise the interest rates at least twice during 2018 started a bond sell off. The stock market corrected to the clear supports which have worked very well until now.
The stock market needs to rest consolidating its growth. But where? It needs to build a new base to go higher from the solid new base.
This profit taking is temporal due to the positive and clear economy, and the corporate profits based on the economy, tax cuts and the growing consumption.
Rebook numbers grew 3.2% at an annual rate lower than last month growth 3.8%.
Consumer Confidence went to 125.4 from previous month 123.1
State Street Investors went to 102.1 from last month 95.7.
As you can see the economy is clearly open the path for an excellent stock market year.
This coming Friday we will have the Unemployment Rate and the Non-farm payroll figures.
Pay attention to the spending bill deadline on February 8th.
Dear traders and investors, I still think that the stock market correction or consolidation is an splendid opportunity to buy at good prices but expect consolidation phases in the market to build base for new all-time highs.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

miércoles, 24 de enero de 2018

The trend is bullish

DJ Resistance:  26,315       New all-time high
                         
DJ Support:      26,200
                           25,904
                           25,819.10
                           25,700
                           25,440
                           25,412       20 Days moving average
                           25,112
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,715.90  Strong, support of old range
                           24,574       50 Days moving average
                           24,500
                           24,100
                           23,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,493       200 Days moving average
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes have gotten new highs and this movement shows continuation. It is supported by the charts although the indexes are in uncharted territory.
The trend will continue to the upside barring a violation of DJ25,904 support.
Consolidation range DJ25,904 - 26,315. In the short term support at DJ25,904 is very important.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
 I read on the news about Ray Dalio Tuesday's interview on CNBC.... "If you are holding cash, you are going to feel pretty stupid" and ..."we are in the Goldilocks period right now. Inflation is not a problem. Growth is good, everything is pretty good with a big jolt of stimulation coming from changes in tax laws......"   He expressed optimism on the global economy backdrop.
The stock market is doing continues new highs and this is the trend for 2018 based on the economy and the corporate earnings after the tax cut laws, the consumers also weight a lot.
The three weeks truce in the Congress is positive for the markets and we expect a final agreement.
The IMF commented raising their projections growth for the global economy and the U.S.A. This new is playing in the market.
Dear traders and investors, I expect a wonderful 2018 for the stock market, I hope the geopolitical is not going to play against. We are in earnings season and I expect new highs in the three indexes DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ Composite.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises           

miércoles, 17 de enero de 2018

Dow Jones touched 26,000

DJ Resistance:  26,086.12  New all-time high
                           25,977
                           25,819.10

DJ Support:     25,700
                          25,440
                          25,112
                          25,016       20 Days moving average
                          24,876       2017 peak
                          24,715.90   Strong, support of old range
                          24,500
                          24,395       50 Days moving average
                          24,100
                          23,950
                          23,600
                          23,500       Gap upside
                          23,480       Gap downside
                          23,250       Strong
                          23,174       Gap
                          23,002       Strong, gap
                          22,890
                          22,795
                          22,420       Strong, breakout
                          22,390       200 Days moving average
                          22,119
                          22,000
                          21,912
                          21,600
                          21,535       July peak
                          21,115
                          20,800
                          20,590
                          20,400       Strong
                          20,125       January 2017 peak
                          19,732
                          19,672       January 2017 low

Technical Analysis: 
The three indexes has started the new Year showing a powerful bullish trend. The breakout to the upside is solid and supported. Momentum is bullish in the three indexes.
DJIA touched DJ26,000 today and retraced forming a DOJI symbol possible bullish.
S&P should have a strong support at SP2,740. DJ25,300 area should be an important support for DJIA.
The three indexes have reached actually new territories in the charts and are above the 20, 50 and 200 moving averages days which is powerful bullish.
Let's see if today's DOJI will be a bull sign.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
 Fundamentals:
Last week was spectacular for the markets with more new all-time highs.
Historical tax cuts, strengthening economy and surging corporate earnings show us an excellent backdrop for the future. The uncertainty comes from the spending bill deadline this January 19th. If there is not an agreement the government will shut down. The fight between republicans and democrats are the security of the country through a wall border with Mexico and the DACA, immigrant students plan, which has stopped the negociations.
The markets are concentrated in the Congress these days and it is difficult to get a deal this Friday or before. Both parties have to find a way to maintain the government operating.
The uncertainties and volatilities about the spending bill will cause retracement and corrections in this bull market. I personally think that they will be temporally and I welcome them to get opportunities to buy cheap.

Dear traders and investors, the fundamentals of the markets and the economy are strong therefore stay long and use the volatility to get bargain prices of your prefered stocks.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

miércoles, 10 de enero de 2018

In New Skies Again

DJ Resistance:  25,479.38  New all-time high
                         
DJ Support:      25,112       Near terme support
                           24,876       Strong, 2017 peak
                           24,820       20 Days moving average
                           24,715.90  Strong, lower band of old range
                           24,500
                           24,172       50 Days moving average
                           24,100
                           23,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174       Gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,280       200 Days moving average
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak
                           21,115
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January 2017 peak
                           19,732
                           19,672       January 2017 low
Technical Analysis:
S&P, DJIA and NASDAQ Composite are again in new record territories, due of this it is difficult to chart them. Possible immediate supports are DJ25,000 and DJ24,876 2017 peak.
They are showing a clear and firmly bull trend in the mid and long term. DJIA and S&P are overbought in the short term and should have a consolidation phase. We look at 20 days moving average as a good support for this phase in the short term. The three indexes are over the 20, 50 and  200 days moving average. That is a strong bull signal.
2018 has started with the bulls in control and with positive perspectives.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The stock market is doing new all-time highs. 2018 started with great expectations for the stock market, global economy and consumption.
Earnings season is open and market has high hopes about the results. The official open is for January 17th. with Alcoa's report (AA). Earnings season is regularly volatile and maybe this time more with the new estimates that are coming to the market.
The tax cut is now a Law not an expectation that is important because the tax cuts are going to be seeing in the profits/loss of the corporations. In my opinion the corporate earnings expected in this season don't reflect this new situation. Analysts are beginning to estimate that impact in the corporations.
The Congress has until January 19th. to agree on Spending Bill other way the Government could be shut down. Democrats and republicans have to agree. That brings volatility to the financial markets due the uncertainty.
Geopolitical is calm at the moment

Dear traders and investors, 2018 started with a nice mood. I expect a good year based in the economy, corporate earnings and consumption. The volatility could retrace the market or consolidates it. Let's see 2018!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         
                         

miércoles, 3 de enero de 2018

2018 seing Bullish

DJ Resistance:  24,885.78  All-time high

DJ Support:      24,715.90
                           24,610       20 Days moving average
                           24,500
                           24,100
                           23,992       50 Days moving average
                           23,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174       Gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,101       200 Days moving average
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak
                           21,115
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           20,732
                           20,672       January low

Technical Analysis:
2018 scenario is firmly bullish.
DJIA could not reach DJ25,000 with the small Christmas Rally in the last days of 2017 but has sustained the last 2017 technical rally breakout staying in the range DJ24,715.90-24,876.07.
The way to DJ25,000 is open and clear to be reached. In the last two weeks the range is about 150 points.
The November rally resembles the September rally and right now the last range seems to be in the same situation.
S&P has the same picture and it last range is only 21 points.
There is no selling pressure at the moment. The trend is bullish what means the stock prices should go up.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:

Happy New Year!

DJIA didn't get DJ25,000 but it raised 28.11% and S&P21.83% during 2017.
The tax cut change the corporations rate from 35% to 21% and is putting more money on the consumers' hands. U.S. GDP is about 70% from the consumers.
We have to pay attention on January 19th. due the debt ceiling and not to stop the government activity.
The economy is doing well and consumers will demand more products and services.

Dear traders and investors, I am still bullish with the stock market, I think that 2018 is going to be an excellent year for the stocks. All the information that we can manage now show us an upside path. Hopefully the geopolitical problems will remain aside or they will be solved. I am ready to work for you as always.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises