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miércoles, 22 de marzo de 2017

Near Term Bearish

DJ Resistance:  21,169      All-time high
                           21,000
                           20,910      20 Days moving average
                           20,743

DJ Support:      20,640      Breaking point
                           20,600      Strong
                           20,400      50 Days moving avergae
                           20,125      Strong January peak
                           20,000      Very strong
                           19,800
                           19,732      Strong
                           19,678      January low
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           19,004      200 Days moving average    
                           18,800  
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August high
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Supports DJ20,640 and 20,600 are working well. The potential is at DJ20,600 where a technical test will be try by the bears.
The market has reversed from DJ21,000 last week that changes the trend to a bearish leaning in the short term. It has formed a lower high.
If the support at DJ20,600 (it is strong) does not work, next support should be DJ20,400 50 days moving average.



Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
As I have explained in my previous blog the "support will be tested furiously" because we should enter in a consolidation phase. Economics are sturdy which include 4.8% unemployment rate, corporate earnings are steadily raising please watch S&P's Q4 corporate earnings +7.1% over past year, quarterly earnings value hit $287.4 billion, consumer is solid and Trump planned reforms should stimulate the economy. But there are some doubts about Trump policy like Trump trade and uncertainties over U.S. healthcare overhaul fuel concerns about the pro-business agenda. Bond, yen and gold gain as traders seek traditional havens.
Markets were hit by biggest fall from Trump's election this Tuesday.
Thursday 3/23 Janet Yellen's speach, market will try try to get information about interest rates raise. On Friday we will get Durable Goods and PMI Composite Flash Report.

Dear traders and investors, U.S. economy is doing well, we could have a retracement or correction until DJ20,400 (50 days moving average) or DJ20,000 area, my opinion is still positive with the stock market. Consolidation will be done below DJ21,000. Stay long!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

miércoles, 15 de marzo de 2017

Dow Jones at Important Support before FOMC

DJ Resistance:  21,169      All-time high
                           21,000

DJ Support:      20,800     20 Days moving average
                           20,743
                           20,640      Breaking point
                           20,600      Strong
                           20,300      50 Days moving average
                           20,125      Strong January peak
                           20,000      Very strong
                           19,800
                           19,732      Strong
                           19,678      January low
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA filled the gap and is fighting the DJ19,850 support, next is DJ20,743 and DJ20,600 area. For S&P support is at SP2,351.
March began with a strong breakout doing a new all-time high and the market is trying to consolidate the new backdrop.
The trend points higher in the great-picture barring a violation of supports. The panorama looks bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

   
Fundamentals:
The market is moving to supports to try them and experiences the continuing plunge of oil and the 10 years bond yield came up, from 2.31% p.a. to 2.61%
Last week  non-farm payroll and the unemployment rate showed a good economy that put in place high expectations for a rate hike this week after FOMC, this Wednesday 2 p.m. Regularly an increase in the interest rates are negative for the stocks but if the market considers that the FED only increases the interest rates when they find well supported bases to think about a robust economy, the market will welcome the increases. In my opinion it is discounted three rates hike in 2017. Besides, this week we will get important figures especially on Friday like Leading Indicators which means that support will be tested furiosly.

Dear traders and investors, the March interest rate hike is discounted by the market, my opinion stays with a consolidation phase before the next earnings season in April. we do not be surprised if he stock market rises after the FOMC meeting comunication. Be ready at 2 p.m.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!              

miércoles, 8 de marzo de 2017

Dow Jones well supported

DJ Resistance:  21,169      All-time high
                           21,000
                           20,971      Monday's high

DJ Support:      20,901      Monday's low
                           20,850      Strong downside gap
                           20,743
                           20,640      Breakout point
                           20,600      Strong
                           20,200      50 Days moving average
                           20,125      Strong January peak
                           20,000      Very strong
                           19,800
                           19,732      Strong
                           19,678      January low
                           19,200     strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
S&P and DJIA have retraced to the strong support. S&P filled the gap instead DJIA still has the gap opened, which is positive for both indexes. That means that the breakout is still valid.
DJ20,850 should be a strong support.
It seems that the doors for a consolidation phase are opened.
Technical analysis through the price action shows a strong uptrend which is bullish leaning.

Click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
S&P has won about 6% from January to March and almost 12% from elections. That figure was expected to be done during 2017. Why? It is explained by the U.S. Dollar appreciation due the imminent interest rates hike during 2017, expected Trump economic plan: higher infrastructure spending, lower taxes, deregulation, etc. Corporations are going to do good businesses and the consumption will be higher and sustained. The strong dollar, the U.S.A. economic perspectives and the slow growth in the European Union and Asia are bringing huge flows of money to the U.S.A. Part of that money goes to the stock market and bonds.
This Friday we are going to have the figures for unemployment and non-farm payroll, and next week FOMC is going to take place and decide about interest rates hike. These news will rule the market.
I have commented you in my prior blog actualization that most likely the market would enter in a period of consolidation once touched the targets DJ21,000 and S&P 2,400. The market achieved the goals.

Dear traders and investors, as I explained in a past blog 2nd. Quarter earnings season is coming in April and it would be fuel for the market. During March the market should enter in a consolidation period to mature the gains made at the end of last year and this year.                        

miércoles, 1 de marzo de 2017

Dow Jones over 20,000 Solid

DJ Resistance:  20,851      All-time high
                           20,837.41 All-time closing high
                         
DJ Support:      20,743
                           20,640      Breakout point
                           20,600      Strong
                           20,400      20 Days moving average
                           20,125      Strong January peak
                           20,095      50 Days moving average
                           20,000      Very strong
                           19,800
                           19,732      Strong
                           19,678      January low
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis: 
DJIA broke today its 12 straight record closes. This path is very bullish as the 50 Days Moving Average, if we watch this line we can remark that every day is closing higher indicating a transparent trend to the upside and we can speak about a strong 2017 bull trend.
February has an important breakout and the chart shows a strong bullish leaning in the medium and long term.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


Fundamentals:
Economic news continue its positive way. Chicago PMI is at 57.4 from 50.3, today we will get ISM Manufacturing, and both are much related. Consumer Confidence is at 114.8, we got this new yesterday.
The stock market has grown up 11% from November 8th. to February 28, Trump Rally.
The yield on 10-years Treasury bonds is 2.3 % p.a. and 30-years is still under 3% p.a. That means that stocks are more attractive than bonds to invest.
In my previous blogs I have explained the combination of lower taxes and the rebuild plan with maintenance of U.S.A. structures. This is very well for the consumption in U.S.A., the future profit of the corporations, the demand of raw materials and finish products. I see a promising 2017.
Next earnings season is coming on April. We could enter in a consolidation phase before this coming season but not before to have reached our targets as I indicated in my previous blog: DJIA 21,000, S&P 2,390-2,400 and NASDAQ COMPOSITE 6,000.

Dear traders and investors, be calm and use the pullbacks to increase your positions in stocks.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

miércoles, 22 de febrero de 2017

Bullish

DJ Resistance:  20,758      All-time high
                           20,743      All-time closing high

DJ Support:      20,640
                           20,440
                           20,200      50 Days moving average
                           20,125      Strong January peak
                           20,000      Very strong
                           19,978      200 Days moving average
                           19,732      Strong
                           19,678      January low
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
New all-time record high again for the three indexes. The breakout of SP2,300 and DJ20,600 is very bullish. When the market is going to consolidate DJ20.000 and DJ20,125 both levels would be strong supports and a bounce up from there would be an excellent confirmation for the bulls. Dow Jones posted eight straight daily advance.
Next targets are DJ21,000 and SP2,390.
It is possible a consolidation in the near term and for the mid and long term the trend is clearly bullish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                         
 Fundamentals:
 I have explained in my previous blogs why I am bullish for 2017. We are witnessing positive economic, corporate news, and the market is expecting better statistics and economic news in the coming months. That means that the GDP will accelerate to the upside due the higher infrastructure spending and lower taxes, and possible protectionism in U.S.A.

The next question is what is the target or is there a correction in the way or at least a pullback? My guess is that the market is going to get the targets DJ21,000, S&P2,390-2,400 and NASDAQ COMPOSITE 6,000 and then they will enter in a consolidation. The traders and short term investors will download part of their portfolio.

Dear traders and investors, the mid and long term is to be long stocks and in U.S. Dollars, if we face a correction or a pullback stay long.


 Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!                     
                         

miércoles, 15 de febrero de 2017

Dow jones New Highs

DJ Resistance:  20,504.41 New all-time high

DJ Support:      20,100.91
                           20,000
                           19,800      50 days moving average
                           19,732      Strong
                           19,678      January closing
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18.000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Strong

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes did new record highs. The panorama is auspicious.
DJIA got uncharted territories after showed strong support at DJ20,002 last week. Its uptrend is confirmed by this bounce up after testing support at DJ20,000. S&P did a similar path is showing a bullish mood well supported by the bounce up after tested its support.
The trend for the three indexes is bullish barring a violation of support, DJ19,732.
                         
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Funfamentals:
We have witnessed an important change, 2016 Q4 corporate earnings returned to growth after five straight quarters of declines from 2015 to 2016. Wall Street investment banking are forecasting better corporate earnings for 2017.
January Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI - NFIB) showed again to be in in the highest level from 2004 at 105.9. This index comprises the largest employer in the U.S.A. and they answer question like capital investment, economic expectations, hiring, expected credit conditions, sales expectations. In summary, they also predict a positive 2017.

Dear traders and investors, these expectations accompanied by positive economic news like retail sales rise more than expected in January, Empire States Manufacturing Index surged in February, strengthen my bullish expectations for 2017. Do not forget about volatility.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!



miércoles, 8 de febrero de 2017

Trend is Still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  20,155      New all-time high
                           20,100.91 Record close

DJ Support:      19,770      50 Days moving average
                           19,732    
                           19,678      January closing low
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Strong

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes are in the highs. DJIA did a new all-time high. What we don't see is a frankly follow through.
The DJIA as the other two indexes are very well supported and they have a clearly up trend barring a breakdown of the support. S&P is fighting with SP2,300 and its all-time high is SP2,300.99 and the record close at SP2,298.37.

Click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
The new administration plans to stimulate the economy with "Buy american and hire American" (Trump's motto during the campaign) and investing for recovery and developping U.S.A. infrastructure. The average age of the fixed assets owned by the goverment was 24 years in 2015. To achive that the goverment thinks that they need one trillion dollras. Democrats proposed the same idea in 2015 and 2016. It seems that the path to get this project differs in the way, democrats wants to do through the goverment investment and Trump administration wants through APP (Asociation of Private Public). This project includes repair & replacement of aging bridges and motorways, upgrading electricity networks and water systems, repairing and fixing outdated dams and river locks, building railways and airports. Trump wants to recover the domestic manufacturing. All these in practice should be positive for the country and its economy.
Economic news are acceptable like corporate earnings during this season. Why is there not a follow through over DJ20,000 and S&P2,300? UNCERTAINTY. The market is taken as positive the first measurements taken by the new administration but the uncertainty of how will it be implemented and their future results is stopping an explosive follow through.

Dear traders and investors, the mood and the expectations are clearly supporting the upside bias of the market but we need to take some defensive measures in our portfolio due these big uncertainties.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!