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miércoles, 19 de julio de 2017

DJIA and NASDAQ New All-time High

DJ Resistance:  21,681.53  New all-time high
                         
DJ Support:      21,535       June peak
                           21,450       Strong
                           21,400       20 Days moving average
                           21,305       Near-term support
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong breakout point
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,590      
                           20,400       Very strong
                           20,190       200 Days moving average
                           20,125       January peak
                           20,000
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and NASDAQ COMPOSITE got a new all-time high. In the last months the 2 breakouts were not followed by a solid follow through this confuses the market. The next target for DJIA is DJ21,785 and SP2,500. It is difficult to navigate in uncharted territories.
June peak DJ21,535 is an inflection point and support now, next strong support is the area between DJ21,400 and DJ21,450.
The uptrend is clear and constructive. The bull market is alive.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Earnings season arrived and it would be the main focus this week and next days. If corporate earnings are solid the stock market will reach the next up leg. We are going to get enough information about the corporations next week to be clear if we are going to have a summer rally.
The economic report from Q2 showed strength what would discard poor corporate earnings but good income which should show interesting corporate earnings.
Traders will take profit near SP2,500 and DJ21,785. Long term investors will maintain their positions riding the bull market until real signs of bear will see in the horizon.

Dear traders and investors, by I have explained in above I suggest to stay long and continue buying in the deeps. We have to be ready for the next up leg and a new consolidation area.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 
                         

miércoles, 12 de julio de 2017

Long Term Bullish

DJ Resistance:  21,562.75  New all-time high
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,490

DJ Support:      21,305       Near-term support
                           21,200
                           21,190       50 Days moving average
                           21,115       Strong breakout point
                           20,980
                           20,800
                          20,590
                           20,400       Very strong
                           20,125       March peak
                           20,060       200 Days moving average
                           20,000
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJ21,115 and SP2,405 break points still are excellent supports and while the indexes stay over them the bullish trend is clear for the mid and long term.
DJ21,305 is the near term support and the important resistance for the bulls is DJ21,535 (June peak). Next support is the 50 days moving average at DJ21,190 and for S&P is SP2,415.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

 Fundamentals:
Economic news that we have to watch:
Q2 GDP estimate at +2.7%
ISM Services 57.4 positive number
Non-farm pay roll 222,000 jobs added when the market was expecting 170,000
57.8 ISM Manufacturing, excellent figure highest in 2 years and a half.
10 years bond yield 2.4% p.a.

With these economic indicators we can expect a better consumption power and corporate earnings growth to go higher. Q2 corporate earnings season is at portas.

I have to indicate that the last breakout on July 3rd. and the previous missed follow through. It is becoming as normal in the last times.

When this bull market will end? It comes most likely from economic decline or the bear market comes from overvalued stock market. In these moments the stock market pays almost the double than bonds.

Dear traders and investors, stocks is the market where we have to be now, we should see the S&P 2,500 in the next leg but it doesn't mean that we are going to sleep while we wait for that level, always we have to be alert.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                      

miércoles, 5 de julio de 2017

DJIA New All-time High

DJ Resistance:  21,562.75  New all-time high
                           21,529       All-time record close
                           21,490
               
DJ Support:      21,380      20 Days moving average
                           21,200
                           21,125      50 Days moving average
                           21,115      Strong
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400      Very strong
                           20,125      March peak
                           20,000
                           19,990      200 Days moving average
                           19,732
                           19,678      January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA got a new all-time high on Monday without follow through. S&P approched its all-time high but could not come through. NASDAQ COMPOSITE is the weakest between the three indexes.
DJIA and S&P are consolidating the space in the charts the y have won.
The trend in the short and midterm is bullish-leaning.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


 Fundamentals:
 DJIA did a new all-time high what not surprised me as I have mentioned in the priors actualizations of the blog. The problem is the follow through, the three indexes are well supported and ready to go up. In NASDAQ COMPOSITE we have witnessed a sell-off but it was mostly about the profit taking from the conservative blue chip stocks tech, traders and investors have taken good profits from them and they are rotating their portfolios.
This Wednesday the market is waiting for the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. This Thursday we will know the ADP employment, trade deficit, ISM nonmanufacturing index and Friday nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. If they come positive they will be enough to fuel the market besides in one week earnings season will be in place.
Economics and corporations are healthy and in shape, GDP Q2 is expected 3% instead 2.7% previous estimated. ISM Manufacturing Improved from 54.9 to 57.8. New Orders are at 63.5, it is a good number.

Dear traders and investors, I expect a Summer rally based on the economy and corporate earnings but I am not yet clear around the Summer doldrums due the continues uncertainties about Mr. Trump's election promises. The market is consolidating and ready for new highs barring a violation of the supports. My advice is to stay long and buy on the deeps.

 Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises           

miércoles, 28 de junio de 2017

DJIA and S&P new high last week

DJ Resistance:  21,535.33 All-time high
                           21,529      All-time reckord close
                           21,450
                           21,384      Bottom of the gap filled

DJ Support:      21,305      20 Days moving average
                           21,115      Strong
                           21,040      50 Days moving average
                           20,980
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400      Very strong
                           20,125      March peak
                           20,000
                           19,960      200 Days moving average
                           19,732
                           19,678      January low

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes (DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ COMPOSITE) tried its all-time high and failed, they are well supported.
Near term resistances are DJ21,384 (the bottom of the gap), DJ21,450, 21,529 and 21,535.33 all-time high.
There is a price action based in portfolio rotation.
20, 50 and 200 days moving average are ascending, that is a positive indication for the bulls. DJ21,115 AND DJ20,980 should act as strong supports.
The backdrop for the three indexes is bullish barring a supports rupture.


Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The postponed bill of healthcare on Tuesday put the stock market down due the uncertainty:
Uncertainty in the financial markets = stocks sell off

Consumer confidence came higher 118.9, excellent result. If consumers and corporations remain confident as they are, reflects optimism and positive expectations about the economy which is decisive for the stock market.

Dear traders and investors, next earnings season is coming. I am still bullish with the stock market and I would not be surprised if we get new all-time highs before the earnings season. Buy in the deeps and stay long.

My right arm is getting better but still immobilized.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises



miércoles, 21 de junio de 2017

Dow Jones bullish

DJ Resistance:  21,535.03      All-time high

DJ Support:      21,436      Top of the gap
                           21,384      Bottom of the gap
                           21,115      Strong
                           20,980
                           20,970      50 Days moving average
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400      Very strong
                           20,125      March peak
                           20,000
                           19,850      200 Days moving average
                           19,732

Technical Analysis:
S&P and DJIA have gotten a new all-time highs this week. It is not easy to draw the path in an uncharted territory but DJIA technical target is DJ21,630 (DJ21,115 - 20,400= 715 + 21,115= 21,830).
Next supports are DJ21,436 top of the gap and DJ21,384 bottom of the gap. While DJIA stays over DJ21,115 the trend is bullish in the medium term.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
This and next week we will get important economic news like leading economic indicators. We have to pay attention to the oil prices which affect directly the stock market. Oil has confirmed its down trend.
We have witnessed stock rotation in the market, investors look for stocks with more potential to go up.
Monday's breakout failed on Tuesday, oil is pointing down on Wednesday, and it seems that the market is not ready for new highs at the moment. Economy and corporations are doing well although rate hike by the FED last week. Next earnings season is coming after the first week of July, in my humble opinion the market will get new all-time highs before the earnings season.

Dear traders and investors, the market is in a bull trend, Europe is doing better (Brexit is discounted). Stay long and buy in the deeps. We have to assess the coming earnings season because the 2017 summer doldrums could be very boring, remember the stock market weak period is from May to October.

My right arm is recovering, it will be ready again in July for earnings season.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

miércoles, 14 de junio de 2017

DJIA is bullish-leaning

DJ Resistance:  21,332.77 All-time high

DJ Support:      21,115
                           21,070      20 Days moving Average
                           20,980
                           20,900      50 Days moving average
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400
                           20,125      March peak
                           20,000
                           19,790      200 Days moving average
                           19,732

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is in unchartered territories doing new all-time high while NASDAQ COMPOSITE is correcting from its all-time high.
DJIA has tested with successful support DJ21,115 which is positive for the bull trend. May low should be the key support to maintain the bullish-leaning trend.
Earnings season is almost closed and the next one is coming the second week of July.
The intermediate term is clearly bullish barring May low violation.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is waiting for this Wednesday 2 p.m. FED should raise the rates from 0.875 to 1.125% indicating that the economy is walking into the growth path, if not we will witness a shallow sell off because the market will read it as the economy is not in shape. For us it would be an opportunity to buy "buy the deeps".

I consider the current sell off in the tech sector as healthier signs for the bull market. The movement means stock rotation in the sector to stocks with more potential and to have prices more sincere and adjusted.

Dear traders and investors, new earnings season is coming in July, will we have a summer rally?, I don't know because I am not a guru but I stay with the bulls.

Pardon me again for the updates lack, my right arm is not ready but I try my best for you.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

miércoles, 24 de mayo de 2017

The Trend is Bullish





Pardon me for not updating my blog but I'm currently in Florida visiting my children and grandchildren. Also, I injured my right arm at home and this makes it very difficult to write.

I will try to update it by May 31st.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises