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miércoles, 22 de noviembre de 2017

New Record Highs: DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ

DJ Resistance:  23,617.80  All-time high
                           23,600

DJ Support:      23,470       20 Days moving average       
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174       Gap
                           23.002       Strong, Gap
                           22,980       50 Days moving average
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,640       200 Days moving average
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,200
                           21,115
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           21,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,672      January low

Technical Analysis:
The trend is bullish, the three indexes show us new record highs. The near term supports, DJ23,250 and SP2,564, were successfully tested and the indexes rebounded from there to new all-time highs that is very bullish and puts the groundwork for potential follow-through.
The 20 days moving average are also working as supports.
We can conclude that the three indexes are behaving technically constructive and they are in bullish-leaning mood.
The retest of the short term supports has defined the range and given projections to visit new historical highs. 
                          
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
 Fundamentals:
Existing Home sales came at 5.480 million units in the annualized figures, last month it was 5.370 million units. Retail sales did well too.

Dear traders and investors, we have to be thankful this year and these Thanksgiving days we have to share with our families and friends. I wish you all the best and we will continue working together trying to understand these passionate markets.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                         

miércoles, 15 de noviembre de 2017

Consolidation or Downdraft of Bull-Trend?

DJ Resistance:  23,602.12  All-time high
                           23,483
                           23,340

DJ Support:      23,250       October low
                           23,174       Gap
                           23,002       Strong, Gap
                           22,890
                           22,810       50 Days moving average
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,560       200 Days moving average
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,200
                           21,115
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,672       January low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA showed a downdraft and it is approximating important support at DJ23,250, October low. Is this retracement a consolidation? It should be. The market is in a bull-trend barring a violation of strong supports. DJ23,250 defines the first range support. DJ23,340 has resisted and proved as support in the short term. 20 Days moving average has failed as support, DJIA was over this indicator every trading day from September 8th.
In summary, the market has done a small retracement and supports are working. The trend is bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                         
 Fundamentals:
Most indexes are in the green. Yesterday the close was in red due of some fears about the tax cut that will be discussed in the House and later in the Senate. Obamacare could be repeal that is not a good new.
The President Trump returned to the U.S.A. after his Asia trip with good news like the 300 billion in trade bills.
Earnings and economic news are driven the market through a good path.
Last month Producer Price Index +2.8% y/y versus +2.6% prior figure. Less food and energy is +2.4% on a year basis. Redbook Retail Sales +2.3% year to year pace against last month +2.6%, still positive number with the sales expectation during Christmas sales.
Today we are going to receive the figures of the MBA Mortgage Applications, The Atlanta FED Business Inflation Expectations, Business Inventories, Retail Sales, The Empire States Manufacturing Survey and Consumer Price Index. We will have a busy day with all these news.

Dear traders and investors, possibly we are in a consolidation phase that will give support the DJIA and S&P indexes gains before to continue to the upside. That means buy the dips and invest accordingly.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         
                         

miércoles, 8 de noviembre de 2017

November Start Bullish: succesive light record closes

DJ Resistance:  23,602.12  All-time high

DJ Support:      23,483
                           23,300       20 Days moving average
                           23,250     
                           23,174       Gap
                           23,002       Strong, Gap
                           22,890     
                           22,785
                           22,610       50 Days moving average
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119       Breakout
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,488       200 Days moving average
                           21,200
                           21,115
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,672       January low

Technical Analysis: 
Positive November start with consecutive new all-time highs during four days. The increases were small bur every day that puts a bullish-leaning trend in the intermediate term barring a violation of the supports.
DJIA supports are at DJ23,483, DJ23,300 (20 days moving average) and DJ23,250. The gaps at DJ23,174 and DJ23,002 are going to act as strong supports for DJIA.
The consolidation range is DJ23,002 - 23,602.12.
The broke of the bull flag just below of DJ23,500 triggered these new all-time highs during last four days. We are almost at the end of the year witnessing a bull trend. The late price action is solid and constructive for the bulls. We are seeing a rotation from transport and healthcare to technology and transport sectors which is healthy and signals the grounded bull trend.
The different moving average will act as solid supports.

Pleaase click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 
Last Friday we have received a bullish Employment figures, 4.1% Unemployment rate and Non-farm payroll increased to 261,000 in October (9,000 from public sector and 252,000 from private sector) ,  which accompany the positive economic news and the corporate earnings.
DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ COMPOSITE have eight straight weekly gains. All these are in a row.
This week there is not controversial news from the economic field. We have to pay attention to Jobless Claims and Whole Sale Trade numbers on Thursday and this coming Friday Consumer Sentiment report.

The market expects the tax cut done this year

This positive situation puts the market encouraged. The conjunction of all of these factors could drive in a new way of growth and wealth for many years.

Dear traders and investors, this bull market is pristine and looks strong enough to continue. We can expect a marvelous end of the year. I am optimistic with the stock market and in any pull back I think we should buy. 

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

miércoles, 1 de noviembre de 2017

Clearly Bull Trend

DJ Resistance:  23,485.25  All-time high
                         
DJ Support:      23,368
                           23,250
                           23,174       Gap
                           23,092       20 Days moving average
                           23,002       Strong, Gap
                           22,890
                           22,785
                           22,500       50 Days moving average
                           22,420       Strong
                           22,119       Breakout
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,412       200 Days moving average
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
The Three indexes have gotten all-time highs during October and we are at he open of the best six months season for the stock market, November to April.
The market is entering to this season with a strong bull trend.
DJIA is doing well with technical and has good supports between DJ23,002 to 23,250 including two gaps support.
The 20 Days moving average is acting as a good support, pay attention to it.
The consolidation phase is still in place and it would be healthy to continue until Thanksgiving with a possible rally. The short, mid and long term trend is clearly bullish.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


Fundamentals:
The economy continues bringing positive news and reports:
Consumer spending rose +1%, core inflation +0.1%, inflation +1.3%, wages rose 0.4%, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey to 27.6 from 21.3. This coming Friday Unemployment Report and Non-Farm Payroll will be disclosed and those figures move the markets. 3Q GDP grew to 3%, estimates were +2.5%., and Consumer Sentiment was at 100.7 which is positive taking note that 70% in the GDP is due to the spending by the consumers.
The market continues underpinned with Redbook retail sales up to 3.6% from 3.5% last month, Consumer Confidence increased to 125.9 from 119.8 last month and in its highest level, Chicago PMI is at 66.2 from 65.2
In resume, October was an excellent month for the stock market and the economy.
The details of the tax cut plan will be released today. There are a lot of rumors of what is in and on what is out, these rumors will end.
Dear traders and investors, the market is in a strong bull trend at least until the year's end underpinned by the optimism of the earnings season, accelerating economy and tax cut plan. I still think about a consolidation before Thanksgiving but the market seems to be resolute and doesn't want to lose time.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                         

miércoles, 25 de octubre de 2017

The Trend is Bull

DJ Resistance:  23,485.25  All-time high

DJ Support:      23,368
                           23,174       Gap
                           23,086
                           23,002       Strong & gap
                           22,890
                           22,810       20 Days moving average
                           22,785
                           22,420       Strong breakout
                           22,405       50 Days moving average
                           22,119       Breakout
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,305       200 Days moving average
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
What a month!
Actually the October breakout at the beginning of the month is unstoppable. We have to realize that the period between November and April is the best for the stock market.
20 days moving average is accompanying as first support the October great acceleration after the breakout.
DJIA has gaps to be filled especially at DJ23,002 where should be a strong support. This action will bring solidity to the up move on DJIA. The consolidation range is DJ23,000 to 23,485.25 with a very strong support at the breakout DJ22,420.
The last up move of the three indexes is over extended in the near term and needs to consolidate filling the gaps and touching the supports. This consolidation will strengthen the bull trend for the seasonal coming period which is statistically the best part of the year for the stock market as I explained previously.
In the mid and long term the trend is bullish-leaning barring a violation at DJ22,420.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
This upside of the last days comes from the budget in the U.S. Congress, it is almost sure that it will be approved by the Senate and the House of Represents, and through this activity the tax cut will be approved too with less votes than the normally requirement. This should be ready just before Thanksgiving.
Economic news continue to be positive, constructive and give strenghto the markets like the increases of September Existing Home Sales to 5.390 million from 5.350 million units. Redbook report showed +3.5% on retail sales on a year to year basis, PMI Composite Flash at 55.7 versus last month 54.6. The corporate earnings season is open and statistically during this period the stock market goes higher. The combination of both should send the market to the up side.
We still have to pay attention to geopoliticals, ISIS or DAESCH is losing territorry and power but they can continue with terrorist attacks as the threat to the footballer Leonel Messi, North Korea continues with threats.

Dear traders and investors, we should face a consolidation in the market before Thanksgiving that will bring health for the bull movement. I am still bullish and I suggest to buy on the dips.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

miércoles, 18 de octubre de 2017

Dow Jones 23,002.20 Wow

DJ Resistance:  23,002.20  All-time high

DJ Support:      22,890
                           22,785
                           22,625      20 Days moving average
                           22,420      Strong breakout
                           22,220
                           22,210       50 Days moving average
                           22,119       Breakout
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,210       200 Days moving average
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis: 
DJIA has visited DJ23,000 and has gotten a new all-time high like the other two indexes. The bull trend is firmly and confirmed by the October breakout.
DJIA and S&P have formed a bullish ascending triangle in the last days, please watch the chart. Practically both indexes have done a new all-time high every day in the last week.
Minor supports before the strong at the breakout DJ22,420. The breakouts will work as important supports. The 50 days moving average at DJ 22,210 will be a strong support.
DJIA and S&P are walking in uncharted territory without resistance, the trend in the midterm is leaning-bullish barring supports violation.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
This begin of the week is so positive for the stock market, let's say nice. Economic news is supporting the new all-time highs consecutive during the last days. The earnings season is just in front of us and it is promising good corporate results. In addition President Trump and the leader of the republican majority have announced their compromise to the tax cut and it should be done in December before the year's end. All of this is fuel for the stock market which has discounted an interest hike for this coming December.
Last economic data:
- Empire State Manufacturing Survey to 30.2 from 24.4
- Redbook Report reported sales increased +3.6% on year to year basis, last month it was +3.2%
- Housing Market index jumped to 68 from previous month at 64
- September Industrial Production + 0.3% from August -0.7%

Dear traders and investors, economic continues supporting the stock market growth and I expect positive corporate earnings in the third quarter. The tax cut will stimulate the consumption which is excelent for the corporate activities and subsequently for the economy. Stay long, the trend is to the upside.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                       

miércoles, 11 de octubre de 2017

New All-time High

DJ Resistance:  22,850.51  All-time High

DJ Support:      22,685
                           22,450       20 Days moving average
                           22,420       Breakout
                           22,220
                           22,119       Breakout
                           22,100       50 Days moving average
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,682       July peak
                           21,600       Strong
                           21,535       June peak
                           21,200
                           21,115       Strong
                           21,080       200 Days moving average
                           20,800
                           20,590
                           20,400       Strong
                           20,125       January peak
                           19,732
                           19,678       January low

Technical Analysis:
The indexes are in new all-time highs and in unknown territories. S&P and DJIA have gotten our targets for before the year's end, they got it earlier than we had expected.
Consolidation range is DJ22,119 - 22,850.51
The breakouts in the way up should work as strong supports.
The trend for the short and midterm is bullish-leaning barring a violation of the supports.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
DJIA closed 69 points higher this Tuesday. This week we will have important economic news that should affect the markets like retail's Redbook report, Mortgage applications, FOMC minutes, Jobless claims, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales figures, Business inventories and Consumer Sentiment. We will have a lot of work on the weekend analyzing the new data.
The markets are flying in uncharted territories and showing strong conviction about the economy and corporate activity. The market resilience is present almost every day.
Next week earnings season begins and I expect firm results according to the recent information of the development of the economy. That means more gains to materialize in the stock market. Normally earnings season affects the market driving it up.
The upcoming tax reform is underpinning the market.
Political possible problems in the U.S.A have to be paid attention like the budget in December, healthcare, and international field with North Korea, certification of Iran deal.

Dear traders and investors, the market is in a strong way to the upside. My targets, DJIA 22,750 and S&P 2,550, have been reached before the year's end. I need to assess the coming market behavior during this coming three month.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises