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miércoles, 12 de diciembre de 2018

Bounce up or continue the descent?

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277       November high
                           26,000       December high
                           25,382       50 Days moving average
                           25,111       200 Days moving average
                           24,989       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 Peak
                           24,719       2017 Close
                         
DJ Support:      24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250
                           23,173       Gap upper side
                           23,002       Gap down side

Technical Analysis:
There are three important support in the consolidation range DJ23,250 - 26,824.78, they are DJ24,000, 23,500 and 23,250. Is the index bouncing up from the December downdraft? It is clear that DJIA reversed from 7 months low. DJIA broke down the important supports DJ24,719 (2017 close) and DJ24,876 (2017 peak), they have became resistants now.
The great volatility in the markets are expressed in 2,099 downdraft points in DJIA in five sessions from December peak.
One day reversal from December low is not enough.
The mud and long term bias is bearish right know but the three indexes are above their important supports and still in their consolidation ranges.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is plenty of concerns and they weigh in it. Uncertainty is the hell for the financial markets, capitals are cowards, they fly immediately to safe havens.
We are living with political concerns in all the globe.
UK prime ministers is in dificults about the Brexit-deal vote, the UK pound became weaker.
La France, Ms. Le President Emmanuel Macron had to reverse his decisions about the gas tax. The yellow-gillets have created problems for about 0.5% of the PBI of the country.
China's Huawei CFO, Whanzhou Meng, is detaned in a Canadian prison. U.S.A. claims her to be prosecuted by the bans on doing business with Iran.
December 21st. is the budget deadline and there is a risk of a shutdown.

The  strength of the U.S.A. economy is a reality, it is working with an excellent steam and we expect positive 2019 gains.

Dear traders and investors, all the political concerns has to pass and the economy will be in play. I a still positive withe the stock market and I expect a nice stock market in the next year. Be calm and cool, have control on your emotions. Don't be nervous with the late pullback.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises


jueves, 15 de noviembre de 2018

Dow Jones corrected after U.S.A. elections

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,805       50 Days moving average
                           25,368       20 Days moving average

DJ Support:      25,112       200 Days moving average
                           25,000       Gap upper side
                           24,876       2017 Peak
                           24,719       2017 Close
                           24,122
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Gap upper side
                           23,002       Gap down side

Technical Analysis:
Rally post-election petered out. DJIA stays over its 200 days moving average (long term indicator) while S&P and NASDAQ Composite have broken these important supports to the downside. S&P reversed from the defined resistance SP2,817.
DJIA did a November high and retraced from that level forming a negative trend line coming from the all-time high at the beginning of October. The chart shows the November high as a lower high which is bearish. This reverse filled the November gap which is constructive in the technical analysis. DJIA needs to be and sleep over the mentioned negative trend line to start to repair charts damages.
Technically is very important in these moments the bottoming of the three indexes. DJIA is the strongest between them.
The market's trend is bearish but with good supports. In the longer term we can say that the three indexes are in a range from January 2018. The DJIA consolidation range is DJ23,250 - 26,824.78.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

  Fundamentals:                     
 Statistics: After the last 18 midterm elections the stock market has increased a weighted of 17 % at the end of one year after them. Beside November and December are very strong months for the stock market after midterm elections.
Producer Price Index-Final demand report was up 0.6% month to month and 2.6% year to year minus Food and Energy.
Consumer Sentiment came at 98.3, it is strong.
The economy looks splendid and there is room until the end of 2019 and maybe more for spectacular corporate results.
The U.S. economy Achilles heel is the deficit. The tax cut should stimulate the economy to get strengthening and specially growth to grab a higher tax collection. The higher tax collection should cover the government loss due the tax cut and bring more economic resources.
Oil prices are plunging, that carries benefits for the consumers but not for the producers and other agents of the economy. It is not helping the stock market.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came at 107.4 which is near its highs.
Volatility is reigning in the day to day market's activity. President Trump domestic fights, international challenges bring uncertainties contribute strongly to volatility. But the economy is dazzling and that will deliver new historic highs to us.

Dear traders and investors, I am still optimistic with the stock market. I still believe that in the corrections is the opportunity to buy cheap and increase the portfolios with excellent prices.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                 

jueves, 25 de octubre de 2018

Technicals Leaning

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high (January peak)
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,798       50 Days moving average
                           25,732
                           25,717       20 Days moving average
                           24,992       200 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close

DJ Support:      24,533.19  Wednesday's low
                           24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
These late days have changed the trend in the charts. The short term is bearish but medium and long still are bullish with damages in the chart. S&P and DJIA have violated its 200 days moving average which is bearish.
NASDAQ Composite has done the same and it has lost more than 10%. Correction is considered when the index has lost 20% from the high of the movement, bear market is when the lost is over 20%. Right now, we can speak about a retracement. Until this moment we have not seen a capitulation then one can think that the market was overbought, there was a profit taking and buyers are expecting for opportunities to buy.
Positive trend line (watch the chart) has supported DJIA but today is the first day that the index sleeps below it. The market needs a confirmation of the positive trend line breaking.
We need to see the DJIA behavior during the next days.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
   
  Fundamentals:
 The market again reverses. The S&P has lost all the 2018 gains. In 15 days all those gains were wiped out . The retracement could be wealthy to adjust the prices with the new P/E.

The economy, the corporate earnings (81% of the corporate earnings per share that we have seen during this season are better than expected), employment and consumption are still positive with nice promises. The current earnings look great. Economic data doesn't show sign of pending recession, don't forget that recessions kill the bull markets.
We are witnessing a correction in a long-term bull market, almost 10 years, which has uncertainties about China, trade war, rising rates, nuclear pact with Russia, journalist Khashoggi case with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
There is no capitulation in the market but we have to see the bottom to aspire to have a rebound toward the highs we have seen in the market.

Dear traders and investors, I am still bullish with the market but not steadfastly. It is because my analysis confirms me my expectations. Don't forget that October is very volatile and the market is superstitious due that the crashes occurred on October.

I try as always to express my analysis in the simpler way to facilitate the digestion of the traders and investors.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                   
                         
                         

miércoles, 17 de octubre de 2018

200 Days MA supported

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old-time high (January peak)
                           26,289       20 Days moving average
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,979       50 Days moving average
                           25,835.35  February high

 DJ Support:     25,835.35  February peak
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,119       200 Days moving average
                           24,900       October low
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
DJIA after have done a new historical high retraced aggressively to just the important support at 200 days moving average and then bounced up. This support is a bull-bear gauge and the bulls are winning.
October low is the three moths low and is the support now.
Next important resistance is DJ25,879 (50 days moving average).
The short-term trend is bearish but midterm is bullish. We have to pay attention to the chart damage, if the DJIA exceeds the 50 days moving average the trend will be bullish again.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Earnings season is back and brought buyers generating a rebound after last week retracement. The start of earnings season was very strong.
Uncertainty is still in play due the difference between Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. caused by the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In addition, the trade war with China brings uncertainty. In the European Union the Brexit weights with the Italian budget and the Italian bonds prices. 
The economic news is still positive and promise good results for the corporation and stronger consumption. Industrial Production rose up 0.3%. The lasts economic reports are bullish.
Last week pullback is healthy for the market and it reacted technically and positive with the new earning season. The continuing strength of the economy and the Trump tax reduction are going to impact on the corporation profits like the future stronger consumption. 

Dear traders and investors, I don't take too much of your time, my expectations are a strong economy, excellent business for the corporations, better standard of live for individuals therefore the stock market will look for new historical highs.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises


miércoles, 3 de octubre de 2018

Dow Jones at New Historical High

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time High

DJ Support:      26,760       September peak
                           26,616       January peak
                           26,312       20 Days moving average
                           26,168       August peak
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,908       50 Days moving average
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,082       200 Moving average
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500       Strong
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones did a new all-time high and S&P is within striking distance to do the same. NASDAQ Composite is alike.
Start October, the beginning of the four quarter, shows a bullish trend looking for unknown territories. The near-term inflection point is DJ26,616 January peak. The third week September gap was filled with the DJIA rally promising new all-time highs.
DJIA 20, 50- and 200-days moving average are crossed pointing to the upside which is very bullish and they should give to DJIA good support in the case of retracement. DJIA is behaving technically. The price action is constructive.
The trend of the three benchmark is bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
What a monthly, October, and fourth 2018 quarter start!
What we have seen these two last days is very bullish. This last up move is based in the fabulous economy. We see the historic level of employment, the growth of the economy, fantastic consumer confidence and therefore the corporate earnings with the promise for better results in the future. All these in spite of the trade war uncertainty. Thanks God the TLC was restructured and reconfirmed.
The growth of the economy is accelerating to 3.1% in 2018 after year of 1.5%. It is almost the double.
The Tax cut and deregulation taken by President Trump is rejuvenating the U.S.A. economy.
Dear traders and investors, this bull market have 12 years long, it is a record but this time the promise is "the best is yet to come".

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         

miércoles, 19 de septiembre de 2018

Dow Jones looking for old all-time High

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time High
                           26,435       January gap upper side
                           26,338       January gap downside
                         
DJ Support:      26,000       Strong
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,068       50 Days moving average
                           25,000       200 Days moving average
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500       Strong
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap

Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones has topped August peak at DJ26,168 and is ready to try to close January gap.
S&P is well supported at SP2,873 and the breakout at SP2,873. NASDAQ Composite is the softer but well supported.
DJIA is also well supported by two positive trend lines (please watch the chart). DJIA has formed a bull flag in the last days daring its seven months high.
The September path is bullish and I expect a prompt visit to the DJIA all-time high.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The good economic news was imposed about the uncertainty created by the possible trade war between U.S.A. and China, and U.S.A. and Canada.
Consumer sentiment at 100.8 from last moth 96.2
The Business Inventory report year to year showed that the inventories pace at 4.3% lags the year to year pace for sales at 8.1%.

Dear traders and investors, as I have explained in prior blogs I expect an excellent 2018 second semester. Technical analysis and fundamentals indicated an upward trend: bullish.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises  


                         
                         
                               

miércoles, 29 de agosto de 2018

S&P500 and NASDAQ at New Record Highs

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                            26,435       January gap upper side
                            26,338       January gap downside
                         
DJ Support:       26,000
                            25,888
                            25,835.35  February high
                            25,691
                            25,548       20 Days moving average
                            25,079       50 Days moving average
                            24,991       Strong
                            24,816       2017 high
                            24,786       200 Days moving average
                            24,719       2017 close
                            24,000       Strong
                            23,509       Strong
                            23,250       Very strong
                            23,173       Strong, gap
                            23,002       Strong, gap
                            22,890
                            22,795
                            22,420       Strong, breakout
                            22,119
                            21,912
                            21,600
                            21,535

Technical Analysis:
S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite have done new record highs and it seems that there are not sellers at those level. When that, the absent of sellers will draw buyers at SP2,873 (breakout and old all-time high). If the index stays over this level the S&P target will be SP2,923.
Dow Jones is lagging also this time but it has a clear up trend. It should visit its all-time high at DJ26,616.71.
Taking the DJIA August high and August low the target is 26,423 equivalents to the S&P 500 target at SP2,923.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite are touching uncharted territory. The three indexes trend is bullish.
DJIA over DJ26,000 is bullish and if it breaks the all-time high DJ26,616.71 the new target should be DJ 29,800.
The previous up move in August and its down retracement to 50 days moving average, and its bounce up with new upside move should touch DJ26,423 as a target just the January gap area DJ26,338 - 26,435.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
August is almost ended; this month is painful for traders because the volume decreases and senior traders take holidays. That explains the high volatility despite the Summer doldrums.
The market took the up way again due the news about China and its will to avoid a trade war, the commercial agreement between U.S.A. and Mexico, and finally the positive expectations about U.S.A - Canada commercial agreement.
The bullish bias is supported by the robust economy of U.S.A. and the consumers that support the promised positive corporate results based on the reduction of taxes.
Consumer Confidence Index at 133.4 which is the strongest in almost 17 years. Redbook report about retail sales in a same store increased 5.1% in a y/y base, last month it was up 4.7%.

Dear traders and investors, be prepared for the new month coming next week. The market activity will increase and I expect to see new all-time highs this year and I am almost sure that this pace will continue for a considerable period.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises