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miércoles, 15 de agosto de 2018

Dow Jones Well Supported

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,691
                           25,500       Gap upperside
                           25,400       Gap downside
                         
DJ Support:      25,215
                           25,150
                           25,086      May high
                           25,000       Strong, 50 days MA
                           24,945
                           24,816       2017 high
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,700       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
The bull trend is in play. The indexes have retraced during the last trading days but the trend have not changed. The DJIA last retracement is more pronounced than the S&P.  DJIA is supported by the key negative trend line (please watch the chart). Support at DJ25,150 is crucial and is going to act as a gauge for the bulls and bears. We have to assess the bounce from that support because it is going to define if the bull trend continues. Next support is the 50 days moving average at DJ25,000 which is pointing to the support at DJ 25,120 - 25,150.
The three financial indexes have well supported during this last downturn. DJ25,835.35 (February high) is the next target for DJIA and the bulls have to give the battle there.
DJIA mid-term bias is bullish barring a violation of the supports.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                         
Fundamentals:
Trade war is weighing on the financial markets and now Turkey with its weak Lira is on the table. President Erdogan is claiming to U.S.A. the repatriation of Fethullah Gulen, a leader of the movement against Erdogan. President trump claims to Erdogan the repatriation of the evangelical Andrew Branson. President Trump tried to negotiate the exchange of them pressing Erdogan with higher tariffs for the Turkish steel and aluminum, the Lira felt immeadiately and the crisis could affect Europe especially the Spanish, French and German banks.
Every time that the three indexes take the way to the upside looking for their resistances international political disagreement frustrate the upside movement despite the robust U.S. economy.
Also remember that August is a lazy month for the stock market due the Summer doldrums. Senior traders are in holidays. You can realize that looking at the volume.
The economy is vigorous, last Small Business Optimism Index showed 107.9 from prior 107.2. Redbook retail sales on same stores was up 4.5% on year to year basis. Inflation is not a concern.

Dear traders and investors, August is a hard month for the markets, I expect the market in the range barring an important violation. My bias is to the upside this semester what worries me is the political events.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         
                               

miércoles, 1 de agosto de 2018

Bull Trend

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,000

DJ Support:      25,402
                           25,086       May high
                           24,989       20 Days moving average
                           24,945
                           24,902       50 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 High
                           24,819       200 Days moving high
                           24,719       2017 Close
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Strong, gap
                           23,173
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has higher lows from April's low. Same picture has S&P 500. That is bullish.
Both indexes are over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average and those moving averages are pointing up in their natural positions let's say first 20, second 50 and third 200 days. They clean the field for the bulls.
The first six months of the year had DJIA and S&P indexes in a range. NASDAQ Composite got a new all-time high.
The important DJIA support DJ 23,250 was fought in the last semester by the bears twice getting the low at DJ23,344. The support worked well.
The consolidation range for the semester is DJ 23,250 - 26,616.71. The short-term consolidation range is DJ24,000 - 25,835.35.
S&P support at SP2,802.
The trend is bullish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The markets continue with their ups and down but showing resilience. In summary they go up step by step.
U.S.A. and EU reached an agreement on trade. Zero tariffs on non-automotive industrial goods are the goal, steel and aluminum the same. They also agreed to reduce tariffs on cars. U.S.A., Mexico and Canada are working on the same way. China tries to collaborate and avoid a trade war. Intentions are not an agreement signed but show the goals. Nobody in the world wants a trade war.
We are in earnings season and after three or four weeks in this process it is normally to take profits. This season is very positive notwithstanding Twitter and Facebook.
The economy also is doing well, GDP grew up 4.1%. The markets are receiving promising news like Consumer Confidence raised at 127.4 from last month 126. Also, employment is in an excellent position near its record. Redbook, retail sales, showed same stores sales are growing at 4.2% , up from last month pace 3.8%. Chicago Purchasing Manager Index 65.5 from last month 64.1. Personal Income grew 0.4% like Personal Spending up 0.4%.
The markets are ready for new earnings reports today. FOMC Meeting Announcement today at 2 P.M., Fed is expected to keep rates steady and employment figures this coming Friday.
The markets expect two more rates hike this year.

Dear traders and investors, positive news from the markets and the economy outweigh the negatives. The strong economy is decisive for the consumers and therefore for the corporations. I expect a surge in the stock market this second semester of 2017.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         
                         

miércoles, 18 de julio de 2018

S&P & Dow Jones at mayor resistance

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  March high
                           25,402       Mayor resistance
                         
DJ Support:      25,086       May high
                           24,945
                           24,876       2017 high
                           24,744       50 Days moving average
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,579       20 Days moving average
                           24,451       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Strong, gap
                           23,173
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
July is a positive month for the stocks. NASDAQ Composite got a new all-time high. S&P is attacking a mayor resistance SP2,802. Dow Jones is approaching a mayor resistance at DJ25,402. DJIA is the weakest index between the three.
DJIA has exceeded the resistance at DJ25,000 and has closed successfully over it in the last three sessions.
DJIA also is closing over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average. This is positive and confirm the direction of the trend.
In the intermediate and long term, the trend is bullish-leaning. The third trimester has begun with the bulls in charge.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Tariffs are weighting on the market; trade war fears are in the air. It would be higher prices for the internal consumption in the U.S.A. This country is the only one in the world that could live isolated from the rest of the world.
Earnings season begins officially this Wednesday with Alcoa, it will be after the market closes. The main focus will be on second quarter's earnings season.
Do not forget the growing corporate earnings, the rising and strengthening economy and the excellent employment figures.

Dear traders and investors, today's story is short because we could be in front of a Summer rally due earnings season's expectations. The market looks ballast for higher stock prices. Let's see it!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
 

miércoles, 11 de julio de 2018

3 Indexes are Bullish

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  March peak
                           25,086       May peak
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,642       50 Days moving average
                           24,600       20 Days moving average
                           24,401       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Strong, gap
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
First semester was hard, the financial indexes did new all-time highs and stayed trapped in a range when they have the potential to go up.
The three indexes bounced up and have a good start in this third trimester. The three have recovered the closing over its 20, 50 and 200 days moving average which is bullish. The Dow Jones Industrial benchmark is the weakest between the three.
DJIA has closed over DJ24,719 (2017 close) and DJ24,876 (2017 peak). It shows a shift to a positive momentum.
Next resistance for S&P is SP2,802 (March peak).
The trend of the indexes is bullish in the intermediate and long term.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The last Friday and beginning of the new week's bounce up was originated by Friday's job report. It was positive and showed a growing economy. Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ closed higher for 4th. days in a row. Expectations of corporate second quarter earnings weights in the market too.
Tariff concerns were neutralized by the estimation that the tariff hike will cost only 2% of the S&P in earnings growth. That means that the bull market will not be actually affected by the trade war especially when the economy is stimulated by the tax cut and the corporate earnings are growing with expectations of two digits. All that means that the fundamentals look splendid for the country and the price stocks.
Retail sales continues going up, Redbook report indicated same store sales grew at a rate of 5.5% versus last month at 4.4% which is actually brilliant.

Dear traders and investors, I expect indeed an excellent second half of the year based on the tax cut, growing economy and consumption.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

jueves, 5 de julio de 2018

Dow Jones weaker than S&P

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  March peak
                           25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           24,905       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,603       50 Days moving average
                           24,356       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                         
DJ Support:      24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
At the opening of the third quarter S&P is in bullish trend for the mid and long term and DJIA instead is in a notably weak position. Volatility is constant present as it was on the first semester of this year.
S&P range is SP2,692-2,742.
DJIA has been closing under the 200 days moving average during the 6-last session. It is bearish. DJIA needs to overcome the 200 days moving average (DJ24,356) and eventually DJ24,719, 2017 close, to aspire to return to the bull path. DJ24,603 (50 days moving average) is also important. DJ24,000 should be a good support for the short term. If you watch the daily chart, you will realize that DJIA is doing a lower low with respect with end May low (DJ24,247), it shows the trend shift.
The negative trend line should act as support for DJIA.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are at the beginning of the 2018's third quarter and earnings season is coming; would we have a Summer Rally? The market has enough chances to bring it based on the strong economy. You can confirm the positive that we have gotten last week and also Monday and Tuesday like Retails sales up 4.4%, Factory Orders 0.4%, and so on.
We have to watch how the market is going to act today after the release of the FED's meeting minutes and tomorrow U.S. jobs report.
The trade war clouds are weighing on the market. The instability and fears do not allow to have a consistent rebound. Every intent of the market is avoided by the new measures and threatens taken by U.S.A, China and EU.

Dear traders and investors, I expect to have a positive market in this second semester of 2018. I expect the economy will continue its growing path and the corporations doing better. The trade war is a constant obstacle but I actually expect a leg up soon.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises



                       

jueves, 21 de junio de 2018

Dow Jones at relevant support

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35
                           25,500       March peak
                           25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           24,924       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,654       50 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,278       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA could not come across DJ25,500 resistance and it took a correction way. DJIA has gotten a three months high and turned back correcting the up move.
Don't forget that DJIA has formed a W BOTTOM with March and May low and the pivot is DJ25,086 (May high) with a target on DJ26,870. If the retracement continues could negate this formation but at the moment it is valid and is in play. The index is still raising from W BOTTOM establishing higher highs and higher lows.
DJIA came across the strong support DJ25,719 (2017 close) and now is supported by 50 days moving average at DJ24,654.
Support at DJ24,280 is an inflection point in the short and mid term. In the same periods of time the trend is still bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The trade war fears are weighting in the market. If you watch the chart you can realize that the bounces were stopped by geopolitical events.
In my opinion the market does not expect a trade war and believe in a North Korea denuclearization through an agreement.
The economy is doing very well plus the tax cut of the corporations will growth with investments done with the tax cut money spared and it will produce more and better jobs. The individuals tax cut will strengthen the consumption that will stimulate the corporations to produce more to satisfy their demand.
DJIA is down again due the trade war fears but the small-cups are higher in all-time highs. Why? the explanation is easy, normally small-cups depend on the domestic market and with the government stimulus in the economy they are not going to suffer with the trade war instead they will benefit from higher domestic demand. Small-cups Russel 2000 and NASDAQ Composite are in all-time new highs.
GDP 2018 second trimester estimated in +4.7% by the Atlanta Fed.

Dear traders and investors, I am still positive with the U.S.A. economy therefore I expect corporations' better business that will be reflected in the stocks prices. What worries me is that I don't know is the Mr. Trump government is following a clear and concrete plan or the government is reacting to the China, EU, North TLC, etc. responses to the U.S. government initiatives.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises





                         
                         

miércoles, 13 de junio de 2018

Nasdaq at New Highs

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35
                           25,500       March peak
           
DJ Support:      25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           25,902       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,516       50 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,100       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
June breakout seems supported. S&P is fighting with SP2,780 resistance (inflection point) and NASDAQ Composite is doing and keeping new high.
DJIA is over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average and broke out DJ25,086 (May peak) which is extremely bullish. Now the May peak (DJ25,086) should be a strong support, next is DJ24,876 (2017 peak) and DJ24,716 (2017 close).
DJIA has elongated its June break out when broke DJ25,086 (May peak). DJIA theoretically has formed a W with a double bottom market by March (DJ23,533) and May (DJ23,531) low. The breakout was done at DJ24,859 (April high) and this W has a target in the DJ26,100 area.
Now the stronger financial index is NASDAQ Composite.
Price action in the 3 financial indexes is notably bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Interest rates hike in 0.25% is almost sure done this afternoon after the FED Meeting. That will show the FED's confidence on the state of the economy. This pronouncement is for today at 2 p.m. o'clock.
There is nothing about the summit between Trump and Kim Jon Un but it was positive. Time will show if North Korea denuclearizes, that is the world's hope. In my opinion the meeting was a good first step.
The economy is in good shape, corporate profits are growing, consumer confidence at highs in the last 18 years.
Mythical investors like Dimon, Buffet, etc. have been lauded the behaviour of the market and the economy and they expect stocks moving higher.
Months before we have determined DJ23,250 as a decisive support for the bulls and we have expected high volatility during the months to become. Now, the moment for the bulls is coming with the second semester at view.
Dear traders and investors, we have worked all this volatility with calm and clear expectations, I am not sure if the volatility times are at the end but I am still bullish with the stock market and optimist with next semester.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises