Bounce up or continue the descent?

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277       November high
                           26,000       December high
                           25,382       50 Days moving average
                           25,111       200 Days moving average
                           24,989       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 Peak
                           24,719       2017 Close
                         
DJ Support:      24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250
                           23,173       Gap upper side
                           23,002       Gap down side

Technical Analysis:
There are three important support in the consolidation range DJ23,250 - 26,824.78, they are DJ24,000, 23,500 and 23,250. Is the index bouncing up from the December downdraft? It is clear that DJIA reversed from 7 months low. DJIA broke down the important supports DJ24,719 (2017 close) and DJ24,876 (2017 peak), they have became resistants now.
The great volatility in the markets are expressed in 2,099 downdraft points in DJIA in five sessions from December peak.
One day reversal from December low is not enough.
The mud and long term bias is bearish right know but the three indexes are above their important supports and still in their consolidation ranges.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is plenty of concerns and they weigh in it. Uncertainty is the hell for the financial markets, capitals are cowards, they fly immediately to safe havens.
We are living with political concerns in all the globe.
UK prime ministers is in dificults about the Brexit-deal vote, the UK pound became weaker.
La France, Ms. Le President Emmanuel Macron had to reverse his decisions about the gas tax. The yellow-gillets have created problems for about 0.5% of the PBI of the country.
China's Huawei CFO, Whanzhou Meng, is detaned in a Canadian prison. U.S.A. claims her to be prosecuted by the bans on doing business with Iran.
December 21st. is the budget deadline and there is a risk of a shutdown.

The  strength of the U.S.A. economy is a reality, it is working with an excellent steam and we expect positive 2019 gains.

Dear traders and investors, all the political concerns has to pass and the economy will be in play. I a still positive withe the stock market and I expect a nice stock market in the next year. Be calm and cool, have control on your emotions. Don't be nervous with the late pullback.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones corrected after U.S.A. elections

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high
                           26,277
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,805       50 Days moving average
                           25,368       20 Days moving average

DJ Support:      25,112       200 Days moving average
                           25,000       Gap upper side
                           24,876       2017 Peak
                           24,719       2017 Close
                           24,122
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Gap upper side
                           23,002       Gap down side

Technical Analysis:
Rally post-election petered out. DJIA stays over its 200 days moving average (long term indicator) while S&P and NASDAQ Composite have broken these important supports to the downside. S&P reversed from the defined resistance SP2,817.
DJIA did a November high and retraced from that level forming a negative trend line coming from the all-time high at the beginning of October. The chart shows the November high as a lower high which is bearish. This reverse filled the November gap which is constructive in the technical analysis. DJIA needs to be and sleep over the mentioned negative trend line to start to repair charts damages.
Technically is very important in these moments the bottoming of the three indexes. DJIA is the strongest between them.
The market's trend is bearish but with good supports. In the longer term we can say that the three indexes are in a range from January 2018. The DJIA consolidation range is DJ23,250 - 26,824.78.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

  Fundamentals:                     
 Statistics: After the last 18 midterm elections the stock market has increased a weighted of 17 % at the end of one year after them. Beside November and December are very strong months for the stock market after midterm elections.
Producer Price Index-Final demand report was up 0.6% month to month and 2.6% year to year minus Food and Energy.
Consumer Sentiment came at 98.3, it is strong.
The economy looks splendid and there is room until the end of 2019 and maybe more for spectacular corporate results.
The U.S. economy Achilles heel is the deficit. The tax cut should stimulate the economy to get strengthening and specially growth to grab a higher tax collection. The higher tax collection should cover the government loss due the tax cut and bring more economic resources.
Oil prices are plunging, that carries benefits for the consumers but not for the producers and other agents of the economy. It is not helping the stock market.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came at 107.4 which is near its highs.
Volatility is reigning in the day to day market's activity. President Trump domestic fights, international challenges bring uncertainties contribute strongly to volatility. But the economy is dazzling and that will deliver new historic highs to us.

Dear traders and investors, I am still optimistic with the stock market. I still believe that in the corrections is the opportunity to buy cheap and increase the portfolios with excellent prices.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                 

Technicals Leaning

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high (January peak)
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,798       50 Days moving average
                           25,732
                           25,717       20 Days moving average
                           24,992       200 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close

DJ Support:      24,533.19  Wednesday's low
                           24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
These late days have changed the trend in the charts. The short term is bearish but medium and long still are bullish with damages in the chart. S&P and DJIA have violated its 200 days moving average which is bearish.
NASDAQ Composite has done the same and it has lost more than 10%. Correction is considered when the index has lost 20% from the high of the movement, bear market is when the lost is over 20%. Right now, we can speak about a retracement. Until this moment we have not seen a capitulation then one can think that the market was overbought, there was a profit taking and buyers are expecting for opportunities to buy.
Positive trend line (watch the chart) has supported DJIA but today is the first day that the index sleeps below it. The market needs a confirmation of the positive trend line breaking.
We need to see the DJIA behavior during the next days.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

   
  Fundamentals:
 The market again reverses. The S&P has lost all the 2018 gains. In 15 days all those gains were wiped out . The retracement could be wealthy to adjust the prices with the new P/E.

The economy, the corporate earnings (81% of the corporate earnings per share that we have seen during this season are better than expected), employment and consumption are still positive with nice promises. The current earnings look great. Economic data doesn't show sign of pending recession, don't forget that recessions kill the bull markets.
We are witnessing a correction in a long-term bull market, almost 10 years, which has uncertainties about China, trade war, rising rates, nuclear pact with Russia, journalist Khashoggi case with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
There is no capitulation in the market but we have to see the bottom to aspire to have a rebound toward the highs we have seen in the market.

Dear traders and investors, I am still bullish with the market but not steadfastly. It is because my analysis confirms me my expectations. Don't forget that October is very volatile and the market is superstitious due that the crashes occurred on October.

I try as always to express my analysis in the simpler way to facilitate the digestion of the traders and investors.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                   
                         
                         

200 Days MA supported

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old-time high (January peak)
                           26,289       20 Days moving average
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,979       50 Days moving average
                           25,835.35  February high

 DJ Support:     25,835.35  February peak
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,119       200 Days moving average
                           24,900       October low
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
DJIA after have done a new historical high retraced aggressively to just the important support at 200 days moving average and then bounced up. This support is a bull-bear gauge and the bulls are winning.
October low is the three moths low and is the support now.
Next important resistance is DJ25,879 (50 days moving average).
The short-term trend is bearish but midterm is bullish. We have to pay attention to the chart damage, if the DJIA exceeds the 50 days moving average the trend will be bullish again.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:

Earnings season is back and brought buyers generating a rebound after last week retracement. The start of earnings season was very strong.

Uncertainty is still in play due the difference between Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. caused by the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In addition, the trade war with China brings uncertainty. In the European Union the Brexit weights with the Italian budget and the Italian bonds prices. 

The economic news is still positive and promise good results for the corporation and stronger consumption. Industrial Production rose up 0.3%. The lasts economic reports are bullish.

Last week pullback is healthy for the market and it reacted technically and positive with the new earning season. The continuing strength of the economy and the Trump tax reduction are going to impact on the corporation profits like the future stronger consumption. 

Dear traders and investors, I don't take too much of your time, my expectations are a strong economy, excellent business for the corporations, better standard of live for individuals therefore the stock market will look for new historical highs.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones at New Historical High

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time High

DJ Support:      26,760       September peak
                           26,616       January peak
                           26,312       20 Days moving average
                           26,168       August peak
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,908       50 Days moving average
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,082       200 Moving average
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500       Strong
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones did a new all-time high and S&P is within striking distance to do the same. NASDAQ Composite is alike.
Start October, the beginning of the four quarter, shows a bullish trend looking for unknown territories. The near-term inflection point is DJ26,616 January peak. The third week September gap was filled with the DJIA rally promising new all-time highs.
DJIA 20, 50- and 200-days moving average are crossed pointing to the upside which is very bullish and they should give to DJIA good support in the case of retracement. DJIA is behaving technically. The price action is constructive.
The trend of the three benchmark is bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
What a monthly, October, and fourth 2018 quarter start!
What we have seen these two last days is very bullish. This last up move is based in the fabulous economy. We see the historic level of employment, the growth of the economy, fantastic consumer confidence and therefore the corporate earnings with the promise for better results in the future. All these in spite of the trade war uncertainty. Thanks God the TLC was restructured and reconfirmed.
The growth of the economy is accelerating to 3.1% in 2018 after year of 1.5%. It is almost the double.
The Tax cut and deregulation taken by President Trump is rejuvenating the U.S.A. economy.
Dear traders and investors, this bull market have 12 years long, it is a record but this time the promise is "the best is yet to come".

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         

Dow Jones looking for old all-time High

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time High
                           26,435       January gap upper side
                           26,338       January gap downside
                         
DJ Support:      26,000       Strong
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,732
                           25,600
                           25,068       50 Days moving average
                           25,000       200 Days moving average
                           24,742
                           24,000
                           23,500       Strong
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap

Technical Analysis:
Dow Jones has topped August peak at DJ26,168 and is ready to try to close January gap.
S&P is well supported at SP2,873 and the breakout at SP2,873. NASDAQ Composite is the softer but well supported.
DJIA is also well supported by two positive trend lines (please watch the chart). DJIA has formed a bull flag in the last days daring its seven months high.
The September path is bullish and I expect a prompt visit to the DJIA all-time high.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The good economic news was imposed about the uncertainty created by the possible trade war between U.S.A. and China, and U.S.A. and Canada.
Consumer sentiment at 100.8 from last moth 96.2
The Business Inventory report year to year showed that the inventories pace at 4.3% lags the year to year pace for sales at 8.1%.

Dear traders and investors, as I have explained in prior blogs I expect an excellent 2018 second semester. Technical analysis and fundamentals indicated an upward trend: bullish.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises  


                         
                         
                               

S&P500 and NASDAQ at New Record Highs

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                            26,435       January gap upper side
                            26,338       January gap downside
                         
DJ Support:       26,000
                            25,888
                            25,835.35  February high
                            25,691
                            25,548       20 Days moving average
                            25,079       50 Days moving average
                            24,991       Strong
                            24,816       2017 high
                            24,786       200 Days moving average
                            24,719       2017 close
                            24,000       Strong
                            23,509       Strong
                            23,250       Very strong
                            23,173       Strong, gap
                            23,002       Strong, gap
                            22,890
                            22,795
                            22,420       Strong, breakout
                            22,119
                            21,912
                            21,600
                            21,535

Technical Analysis:
S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite have done new record highs and it seems that there are not sellers at those level. When that, the absent of sellers will draw buyers at SP2,873 (breakout and old all-time high). If the index stays over this level the S&P target will be SP2,923.
Dow Jones is lagging also this time but it has a clear up trend. It should visit its all-time high at DJ26,616.71.
Taking the DJIA August high and August low the target is 26,423 equivalents to the S&P 500 target at SP2,923.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite are touching uncharted territory. The three indexes trend is bullish.
DJIA over DJ26,000 is bullish and if it breaks the all-time high DJ26,616.71 the new target should be DJ 29,800.
The previous up move in August and its down retracement to 50 days moving average, and its bounce up with new upside move should touch DJ26,423 as a target just the January gap area DJ26,338 - 26,435.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
August is almost ended; this month is painful for traders because the volume decreases and senior traders take holidays. That explains the high volatility despite the Summer doldrums.
The market took the up way again due the news about China and its will to avoid a trade war, the commercial agreement between U.S.A. and Mexico, and finally the positive expectations about U.S.A - Canada commercial agreement.
The bullish bias is supported by the robust economy of U.S.A. and the consumers that support the promised positive corporate results based on the reduction of taxes.
Consumer Confidence Index at 133.4 which is the strongest in almost 17 years. Redbook report about retail sales in a same store increased 5.1% in a y/y base, last month it was up 4.7%.

Dear traders and investors, be prepared for the new month coming next week. The market activity will increase and I expect to see new all-time highs this year and I am almost sure that this pace will continue for a considerable period.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                         
                           
                           
                           
                           
                         

Dow Jones Well Supported

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,691
                           25,500       Gap upperside
                           25,400       Gap downside
                         
DJ Support:      25,215
                           25,150
                           25,086      May high
                           25,000       Strong, 50 days MA
                           24,945
                           24,816       2017 high
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,700       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,173       Strong, gap
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
The bull trend is in play. The indexes have retraced during the last trading days but the trend have not changed. The DJIA last retracement is more pronounced than the S&P.  DJIA is supported by the key negative trend line (please watch the chart). Support at DJ25,150 is crucial and is going to act as a gauge for the bulls and bears. We have to assess the bounce from that support because it is going to define if the bull trend continues. Next support is the 50 days moving average at DJ25,000 which is pointing to the support at DJ 25,120 - 25,150.
The three financial indexes have well supported during this last downturn. DJ25,835.35 (February high) is the next target for DJIA and the bulls have to give the battle there.
DJIA mid-term bias is bullish barring a violation of the supports.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                         
Fundamentals:
Trade war is weighing on the financial markets and now Turkey with its weak Lira is on the table. President Erdogan is claiming to U.S.A. the repatriation of Fethullah Gulen, a leader of the movement against Erdogan. President trump claims to Erdogan the repatriation of the evangelical Andrew Branson. President Trump tried to negotiate the exchange of them pressing Erdogan with higher tariffs for the Turkish steel and aluminum, the Lira felt immeadiately and the crisis could affect Europe especially the Spanish, French and German banks.
Every time that the three indexes take the way to the upside looking for their resistances international political disagreement frustrate the upside movement despite the robust U.S. economy.
Also remember that August is a lazy month for the stock market due the Summer doldrums. Senior traders are in holidays. You can realize that looking at the volume.
The economy is vigorous, last Small Business Optimism Index showed 107.9 from prior 107.2. Redbook retail sales on same stores was up 4.5% on year to year basis. Inflation is not a concern.

Dear traders and investors, August is a hard month for the markets, I expect the market in the range barring an important violation. My bias is to the upside this semester what worries me is the political events.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         
                               

Bull Trend

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,000

DJ Support:      25,402
                           25,086       May high
                           24,989       20 Days moving average
                           24,945
                           24,902       50 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 High
                           24,819       200 Days moving high
                           24,719       2017 Close
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Strong, gap
                           23,173
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has higher lows from April's low. Same picture has S&P 500. That is bullish.
Both indexes are over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average and those moving averages are pointing up in their natural positions let's say first 20, second 50 and third 200 days. They clean the field for the bulls.
The first six months of the year had DJIA and S&P indexes in a range. NASDAQ Composite got a new all-time high.
The important DJIA support DJ 23,250 was fought in the last semester by the bears twice getting the low at DJ23,344. The support worked well.
The consolidation range for the semester is DJ 23,250 - 26,616.71. The short-term consolidation range is DJ24,000 - 25,835.35.
S&P support at SP2,802.
The trend is bullish-leaning.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The markets continue with their ups and down but showing resilience. In summary they go up step by step.
U.S.A. and EU reached an agreement on trade. Zero tariffs on non-automotive industrial goods are the goal, steel and aluminum the same. They also agreed to reduce tariffs on cars. U.S.A., Mexico and Canada are working on the same way. China tries to collaborate and avoid a trade war. Intentions are not an agreement signed but show the goals. Nobody in the world wants a trade war.
We are in earnings season and after three or four weeks in this process it is normally to take profits. This season is very positive notwithstanding Twitter and Facebook.
The economy also is doing well, GDP grew up 4.1%. The markets are receiving promising news like Consumer Confidence raised at 127.4 from last month 126. Also, employment is in an excellent position near its record. Redbook, retail sales, showed same stores sales are growing at 4.2% , up from last month pace 3.8%. Chicago Purchasing Manager Index 65.5 from last month 64.1. Personal Income grew 0.4% like Personal Spending up 0.4%.
The markets are ready for new earnings reports today. FOMC Meeting Announcement today at 2 P.M., Fed is expected to keep rates steady and employment figures this coming Friday.
The markets expect two more rates hike this year.

Dear traders and investors, positive news from the markets and the economy outweigh the negatives. The strong economy is decisive for the consumers and therefore for the corporations. I expect a surge in the stock market this second semester of 2017.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         
                         

S&P & Dow Jones at mayor resistance

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  March high
                           25,402       Mayor resistance
                         
DJ Support:      25,086       May high
                           24,945
                           24,876       2017 high
                           24,744       50 Days moving average
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,579       20 Days moving average
                           24,451       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Strong, gap
                           23,173
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
July is a positive month for the stocks. NASDAQ Composite got a new all-time high. S&P is attacking a mayor resistance SP2,802. Dow Jones is approaching a mayor resistance at DJ25,402. DJIA is the weakest index between the three.
DJIA has exceeded the resistance at DJ25,000 and has closed successfully over it in the last three sessions.
DJIA also is closing over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average. This is positive and confirm the direction of the trend.
In the intermediate and long term, the trend is bullish-leaning. The third trimester has begun with the bulls in charge.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Tariffs are weighting on the market; trade war fears are in the air. It would be higher prices for the internal consumption in the U.S.A. This country is the only one in the world that could live isolated from the rest of the world.
Earnings season begins officially this Wednesday with Alcoa, it will be after the market closes. The main focus will be on second quarter's earnings season.
Do not forget the growing corporate earnings, the rising and strengthening economy and the excellent employment figures.

Dear traders and investors, today's story is short because we could be in front of a Summer rally due earnings season's expectations. The market looks ballast for higher stock prices. Let's see it!

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
 

3 Indexes are Bullish

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  March peak
                           25,086       May peak
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,642       50 Days moving average
                           24,600       20 Days moving average
                           24,401       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,000       Strong
                           23,500
                           23,250       Strong, gap
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
First semester was hard, the financial indexes did new all-time highs and stayed trapped in a range when they have the potential to go up.
The three indexes bounced up and have a good start in this third trimester. The three have recovered the closing over its 20, 50 and 200 days moving average which is bullish. The Dow Jones Industrial benchmark is the weakest between the three.
DJIA has closed over DJ24,719 (2017 close) and DJ24,876 (2017 peak). It shows a shift to a positive momentum.
Next resistance for S&P is SP2,802 (March peak).
The trend of the indexes is bullish in the intermediate and long term.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The last Friday and beginning of the new week's bounce up was originated by Friday's job report. It was positive and showed a growing economy. Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ closed higher for 4th. days in a row. Expectations of corporate second quarter earnings weights in the market too.
Tariff concerns were neutralized by the estimation that the tariff hike will cost only 2% of the S&P in earnings growth. That means that the bull market will not be actually affected by the trade war especially when the economy is stimulated by the tax cut and the corporate earnings are growing with expectations of two digits. All that means that the fundamentals look splendid for the country and the price stocks.
Retail sales continues going up, Redbook report indicated same store sales grew at a rate of 5.5% versus last month at 4.4% which is actually brilliant.

Dear traders and investors, I expect indeed an excellent second half of the year based on the tax cut, growing economy and consumption.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Dow Jones weaker than S&P

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35  March peak
                           25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           24,905       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,603       50 Days moving average
                           24,356       200 Days moving average
                           24,280
                         
DJ Support:      24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
At the opening of the third quarter S&P is in bullish trend for the mid and long term and DJIA instead is in a notably weak position. Volatility is constant present as it was on the first semester of this year.
S&P range is SP2,692-2,742.
DJIA has been closing under the 200 days moving average during the 6-last session. It is bearish. DJIA needs to overcome the 200 days moving average (DJ24,356) and eventually DJ24,719, 2017 close, to aspire to return to the bull path. DJ24,603 (50 days moving average) is also important. DJ24,000 should be a good support for the short term. If you watch the daily chart, you will realize that DJIA is doing a lower low with respect with end May low (DJ24,247), it shows the trend shift.
The negative trend line should act as support for DJIA.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are at the beginning of the 2018's third quarter and earnings season is coming; would we have a Summer Rally? The market has enough chances to bring it based on the strong economy. You can confirm the positive that we have gotten last week and also Monday and Tuesday like Retails sales up 4.4%, Factory Orders 0.4%, and so on.
We have to watch how the market is going to act today after the release of the FED's meeting minutes and tomorrow U.S. jobs report.
The trade war clouds are weighing on the market. The instability and fears do not allow to have a consistent rebound. Every intent of the market is avoided by the new measures and threatens taken by U.S.A, China and EU.

Dear traders and investors, I expect to have a positive market in this second semester of 2018. I expect the economy will continue its growing path and the corporations doing better. The trade war is a constant obstacle but I actually expect a leg up soon.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises



                       

Dow Jones at relevant support

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35
                           25,500       March peak
                           25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           24,924       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,654       50 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,278       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA could not come across DJ25,500 resistance and it took a correction way. DJIA has gotten a three months high and turned back correcting the up move.
Don't forget that DJIA has formed a W BOTTOM with March and May low and the pivot is DJ25,086 (May high) with a target on DJ26,870. If the retracement continues could negate this formation but at the moment it is valid and is in play. The index is still raising from W BOTTOM establishing higher highs and higher lows.
DJIA came across the strong support DJ25,719 (2017 close) and now is supported by 50 days moving average at DJ24,654.
Support at DJ24,280 is an inflection point in the short and mid term. In the same periods of time the trend is still bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The trade war fears are weighting in the market. If you watch the chart you can realize that the bounces were stopped by geopolitical events.
In my opinion the market does not expect a trade war and believe in a North Korea denuclearization through an agreement.
The economy is doing very well plus the tax cut of the corporations will growth with investments done with the tax cut money spared and it will produce more and better jobs. The individuals tax cut will strengthen the consumption that will stimulate the corporations to produce more to satisfy their demand.
DJIA is down again due the trade war fears but the small-cups are higher in all-time highs. Why? the explanation is easy, normally small-cups depend on the domestic market and with the government stimulus in the economy they are not going to suffer with the trade war instead they will benefit from higher domestic demand. Small-cups Russel 2000 and NASDAQ Composite are in all-time new highs.
GDP 2018 second trimester estimated in +4.7% by the Atlanta Fed.

Dear traders and investors, I am still positive with the U.S.A. economy therefore I expect corporations' better business that will be reflected in the stocks prices. What worries me is that I don't know is the Mr. Trump government is following a clear and concrete plan or the government is reacting to the China, EU, North TLC, etc. responses to the U.S. government initiatives.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises





                         
                         

Nasdaq at New Highs

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35
                           25,500       March peak
           
DJ Support:      25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           25,902       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,516       50 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,100       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
June breakout seems supported. S&P is fighting with SP2,780 resistance (inflection point) and NASDAQ Composite is doing and keeping new high.
DJIA is over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average and broke out DJ25,086 (May peak) which is extremely bullish. Now the May peak (DJ25,086) should be a strong support, next is DJ24,876 (2017 peak) and DJ24,716 (2017 close).
DJIA has elongated its June break out when broke DJ25,086 (May peak). DJIA theoretically has formed a W with a double bottom market by March (DJ23,533) and May (DJ23,531) low. The breakout was done at DJ24,859 (April high) and this W has a target in the DJ26,100 area.
Now the stronger financial index is NASDAQ Composite.
Price action in the 3 financial indexes is notably bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Interest rates hike in 0.25% is almost sure done this afternoon after the FED Meeting. That will show the FED's confidence on the state of the economy. This pronouncement is for today at 2 p.m. o'clock.
There is nothing about the summit between Trump and Kim Jon Un but it was positive. Time will show if North Korea denuclearizes, that is the world's hope. In my opinion the meeting was a good first step.
The economy is in good shape, corporate profits are growing, consumer confidence at highs in the last 18 years.
Mythical investors like Dimon, Buffet, etc. have been lauded the behaviour of the market and the economy and they expect stocks moving higher.
Months before we have determined DJ23,250 as a decisive support for the bulls and we have expected high volatility during the months to become. Now, the moment for the bulls is coming with the second semester at view.
Dear traders and investors, we have worked all this volatility with calm and clear expectations, I am not sure if the volatility times are at the end but I am still bullish with the stock market and optimist with next semester.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                

Boring but bullish

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,800.35
                           25,400
                           25,000
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close

DJ Support:      24,619
                           24,500       20 Days moving average
                           24,440       50 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,100
                           23,978       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002      Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is attacking DJ25,000 resistance. The mood and the technical are bullish. It is very important for the bulls to breakout DJ25,000 and it should be over DJ24,719 (2017 close) and DJ24,876 (2017 high).
The three indexes resilience and stability support the bullish bias.
It seems the DJ23,250 that we have outlined from March 2018 acts as very strong support for DJIA.
The breakout of DJ25,000 would confirm the double bottom defined by March and May lows approximately DJ23,500.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Better than expected economic reports and records earnings project the stocks to higher prices. We are facing historic times for the economy and the markets. I am not showing the last economic reports but you can watch PMI Composite Flash report as an example. The problem comes from geopolitical issues, it brings uncertainty the principal enemy for the financial markets. We saw Israel using in its war the F-35 hunters, it is incredible, Iran agreement, North Korea meeting with President trump was cancelled, TLC in problems without definitions, the European Union no longer trust their ally from always U.S.A. and so on.
FED minutes from May 4th. calmed the markets about inflation and practically has ratified an interest increase for June.
In January and February we were very clear that the tax cut was bullish for the corporations and individuals, the corporate earnings were doing well and consumption was solid. All these is excellent for the economy and better times were coming. I also added that the uncertainty will be with us during the next months and the important was to define the bottom of the correction. It seems that we did well with DJ23,250 support.

Dear traders and investors, I don't want to take your time with a long explanation in detail about what I expect in the economy field for 2018 and 2019, my position is bullish until I find reasons and ground to change my expectations about the economy and the financial markets.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Resistances under attackt

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,800.35
                           25,400
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close

DJ Support:      24,472       50 Days moving average
                           24,411       20 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,100
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is near important resistances like the 2017 high DJ24,876 and 2017 close DJ24,719. S&P and NASDAQ Composite are almost doing the same. If they break those resistances the bulls would have an excellent opportunity to show their intentions.
Volume is weak in the last sessions.
In the short term the technical picture remains bearish-leaning. The important support area DJ23,250 - 23,500 stays unblemished.
 
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

                       
Fundamentals:
President's Trump announcement about the Iran deal has not caused a great reaction. The financial market is acting all in stride like the oil market. It seems that the 90 days grace period eliminates uncertainty. Opinions are split if the decision is positive or negative for the United States.
The Redbook numbers for the retails stores showed the sales increase in the same stores with a y/y gain of 4.2% compared to last month's 3.5%.
The number of job opening in U.S.A. surged in March to a record 6.55 million from 6.1 million
Employment is in shape and the last economic reports show strength in the economy.

Dear traders and investors, there are uncertainties and new rules participating in the geopolitical, the financial markets doesn't like them but they have to live with. Economy and consumption are healthy therefore a rise in the market should be underway.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                    

Bearish in the Mid Term

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,800.35
                           25,400
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,623       50 Days Moving average
                           24,280
                           24,256       20 Days moving average
                           24,100
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
False breakout of the negative trend line and the 50 days moving average, this action indicates the bearish-leaning trend in the medium term. S&P dis almost the same.
DJIA could not to penetrate de resistance DJ24,876 (2017 peak) and returned below its 50 days moving average (DJ24623). If you watch the S&P chart you will realize the same behavior.
DJIA has to close over DJ24,876 (2017 peak) to bring back the bulls.
The three indexes are below its 50 days moving averages and show a failed attempt to recover to the all-time highs.
DJ23,250 should be a strong and an extraordinary support. The correction range is DJ23,250 - 26,616.71
Following the negative trend line (watch the chart) the trend in the midterm is bearish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 
The 10 year bond got 3% p.a. because sellers of bonds were active. That put the stock market in alert and we have witnessed how the bounce in April failed. Besides, Caterpillar showed excellent earnings in this first quarter with nice outlook in the future and announced that this one could be the stellar of this year that put the stock Caterpillar and the stock market in a sell mode.
We have to focus in the economy. Earnings season is excellent and we expect positive profits until the season's end. With the corporate tax cut the corporations foresees better benefits in the coming times and its expansions. Last GDP was 2.9% positive in the quarter. The economy is showing a vigorous job growth with low unemployment. The information that we are receiving indicates to us that we are in front of a bolstering economy with solid consumption and the consumer confidence almost in the highest levels.

Dear traders and investors, the market entered in a correction mode which is normal after the 2017 results. I had explained to you some months ago that the volatility would be with us in the next weeks and months. Economy is showing us the path to the expansion and very good times coming. That is what really counts. Concentrate in the facts, analyze them and buy the dips.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises