Dear traders and investors,
My wish is that you have had a beatiful Christmas time with your families and the message of peace, love and union are in the hearts of all the world.
We have gotten the expected Christmas rally and we will see what DJ level achieve, at least DJ16.500.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We are going to work together during all 2014, that makes me delighted and fortunate to have the opportunity of cooperating with you colleagues.
See you next week.
Ulises
jueves, 26 de diciembre de 2013
miércoles, 18 de diciembre de 2013
Can the bull market last during 2014?
This is a very good article about if the bull market can last during 2014. I took it from Finantial Times, read with patience as we await for the Federal Reserve announcement about the taper at 2 P.M.
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2013/12/15/can-the-bull-market-last-another-year/?
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
martes, 17 de diciembre de 2013
Wednesday: QE tapering ?
DJ Resistance : 16.174 All-time high
16.097 All-time high close.
16.058
15.930
DJ Support : 15.720 Strong (October pick)
15.687 50 days moving averages (50MA)
15.550 Strong
14.760 Very strong
Technical Analysis :
The DJ bounced up from the strong support area DJ15.721-15.797, technically the importance of this support is confirmed and the bullish bias too. The Dow Jones Index Average over this area is contructive positive and do not fear to be long. Below this support is another history.
It was the same for the S&P at SP1.775 and NASDAQ at 3.995. The two index bounced up.
The support DJ15.900 now is a resistance at DJ15.930. The DJ also is supported with the 50 and 200 days moving average.
The five years daily and one year daily charts have intact positive trend lines. They work as support and both are not the same.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals :
The market behavior has been back and forth in these last days, something that do not surprise us in this time of the year. Specially this end of the year when we are facing the end of the QE3 and we don't know if we are in a robust recovery, the unemployment and consumption still have mist.
Why I am positive? Because the economic news, for example the last GDP numbers, non-farm payroll, Empire State Manufacturing Index (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), U.S. labor productivity, the Tankan Book (Bank of Japan), Europe is turning to growth, U.K. property houses prices are rising, and so on, in addition of the charts and technical analysis conclusions.
Why are the stock prices in these levels? It is because of the liquidity from QE1,2 and 3, the corporations have been reorganized so are efficient, competitive, and the cash they have right now. Those prices have to be adjusted but when? When the factors change and we are going to evalue the new reality.
Mr. Mohamed El-Erian thinks December taper as high as 60%, I have read that 88% of the funds managers don't expect December taper. Mi opinion is that tapering is going to begin next year because inflation is still low in these moments.
Dear trader and investors, this Wednesday all the market is waiting for the FOMC decision. Then, we are going to see how the market reacts. I am still with the possibility of Christmast rally for next week. The mouvements in the finantials market after Christmats are sudden and strong due the lower volume and the few participants.
I try to assist you by giving my views and analysis so you navigate in the market with rationality without emotions. I am a trader, I know very well how hard is to take decisions in these markets and how our emotions affect our trading.
KEEP THE COURSE ACCORDING TO THE TAKEN STRATEGY!
16.097 All-time high close.
16.058
15.930
DJ Support : 15.720 Strong (October pick)
15.687 50 days moving averages (50MA)
15.550 Strong
14.760 Very strong
Technical Analysis :
The DJ bounced up from the strong support area DJ15.721-15.797, technically the importance of this support is confirmed and the bullish bias too. The Dow Jones Index Average over this area is contructive positive and do not fear to be long. Below this support is another history.
It was the same for the S&P at SP1.775 and NASDAQ at 3.995. The two index bounced up.
The support DJ15.900 now is a resistance at DJ15.930. The DJ also is supported with the 50 and 200 days moving average.
The five years daily and one year daily charts have intact positive trend lines. They work as support and both are not the same.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.
Fundamentals :
The market behavior has been back and forth in these last days, something that do not surprise us in this time of the year. Specially this end of the year when we are facing the end of the QE3 and we don't know if we are in a robust recovery, the unemployment and consumption still have mist.
Why I am positive? Because the economic news, for example the last GDP numbers, non-farm payroll, Empire State Manufacturing Index (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), U.S. labor productivity, the Tankan Book (Bank of Japan), Europe is turning to growth, U.K. property houses prices are rising, and so on, in addition of the charts and technical analysis conclusions.
Why are the stock prices in these levels? It is because of the liquidity from QE1,2 and 3, the corporations have been reorganized so are efficient, competitive, and the cash they have right now. Those prices have to be adjusted but when? When the factors change and we are going to evalue the new reality.
Mr. Mohamed El-Erian thinks December taper as high as 60%, I have read that 88% of the funds managers don't expect December taper. Mi opinion is that tapering is going to begin next year because inflation is still low in these moments.
Dear trader and investors, this Wednesday all the market is waiting for the FOMC decision. Then, we are going to see how the market reacts. I am still with the possibility of Christmast rally for next week. The mouvements in the finantials market after Christmats are sudden and strong due the lower volume and the few participants.
I try to assist you by giving my views and analysis so you navigate in the market with rationality without emotions. I am a trader, I know very well how hard is to take decisions in these markets and how our emotions affect our trading.
KEEP THE COURSE ACCORDING TO THE TAKEN STRATEGY!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulisesmiércoles, 11 de diciembre de 2013
U.S. Budget Deal
DJ Resistance : 16.174 All-time high
16.097 All-time high close
16.058 Monday's high
DJ Support : 15.900
15.797 Strong support confirmed
15.721 Strong (October pick)
15.550 Strong
14.760 Very strong
Very sorry for the delay, it was because I was flying since Tuesday noon until this morning.
Technical Analysis :
The S&P did a new all-time high and the Nasdaq got highs we didn't see in the last thirteen years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is lagging but in a constructive way. It bounced up from the strong support spanning DJ15.721 - 15.797. This support area is confirmed now. My opinion is that de DJ over 15.797 is strong and bullish.
The DJ index is still over 20,50 and 200 moving averages. All of these put the index in a positive position and it has to overcome DJ 16.097,all-time closing high, to look for new highs.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
16.097 All-time high close
16.058 Monday's high
DJ Support : 15.900
15.797 Strong support confirmed
15.721 Strong (October pick)
15.550 Strong
14.760 Very strong
Very sorry for the delay, it was because I was flying since Tuesday noon until this morning.
Technical Analysis :
The S&P did a new all-time high and the Nasdaq got highs we didn't see in the last thirteen years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is lagging but in a constructive way. It bounced up from the strong support spanning DJ15.721 - 15.797. This support area is confirmed now. My opinion is that de DJ over 15.797 is strong and bullish.
The DJ index is still over 20,50 and 200 moving averages. All of these put the index in a positive position and it has to overcome DJ 16.097,all-time closing high, to look for new highs.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
The "V" reversal target is about DJ16.600.
Fundamentals :
As I explained in the last actualization of the blog we have to keep the discipline and do not take emotional decisions with these back and forth of the market during these days.
If we are going to have the Christmats Rally, it is going to begin on December 23rd. and finish the first week of January.
We are getting good economic news like unemployment, non farm payroll after a positive earnings season. There is U.S.budget deal which is excellent, we have to analyse the terms for the economy.After all of this,
I feel confortable with the idea to close the year with the DJ over 16.500
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulisesmartes, 3 de diciembre de 2013
And now?
DJ Resistance : 16.174 All-time high
16.120
16.098
DJ Support : 15.900 Closing low on November 22nd.
15.860
15.797
15.721 Strong (October pick)
15.550 Strong
14.760 Very strong (range support)
Technical Analysis :
We got the small rally for Thanksgiving with a new high in the Dow Jones industrial average. The problem is from now on.
The DJ and S&P did new record highs last week and we faced retracement in the last three sessions. The strong support at DJ15.900.82 as indicated last week worked very well this Tuesday. The 20 days moving average is acting as strong support now (gold line in the last week chart). It is not coincidence or fortune teller, this is technical analysis.
The DJ over the upper range line DJ 15.721 is bullish and strong positive. Do not forget the "V Reversal" broke up target is DJ16.600 approximately and DJ is in unknown territory.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it
Fundamentals :
What will happen from now onwards?
The market is getting good economic news in the last thirty days. This week we are going to get a lot of important economic news like November employment situation, specially on Wednesday. If we continue getting these kinds of news the blue-chip benchmark is going to hit DJ16.500 this year.
The national budget will be discussed again in the Congress in December.
What do I expect? I think that we are going to face some retracement and corrections which is very good for the stock market. People are going to sell some positions in the first two weeks of December to balance their portfolios and to be prepared for 2013 taxes. That means possibly the market is going to be in back and forths for the next two weeks.
The fall of the last three sessions were originated for fears tapering and today's announcement of a Michigan judge allowing Detroit bankruptcy process to continue. This last could be the first between other municipalities in financial problems.
Dear traders and investors, normally the market comes down after Thanksgiving. We could get Christmas Rally after December 20. It all depends on the economic news and the mood of the market. Do not get bored during these two or three weeks and do not take emocional decisions. Discipline is the key.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
16.120
16.098
DJ Support : 15.900 Closing low on November 22nd.
15.860
15.797
15.721 Strong (October pick)
15.550 Strong
14.760 Very strong (range support)
Technical Analysis :
We got the small rally for Thanksgiving with a new high in the Dow Jones industrial average. The problem is from now on.
The DJ and S&P did new record highs last week and we faced retracement in the last three sessions. The strong support at DJ15.900.82 as indicated last week worked very well this Tuesday. The 20 days moving average is acting as strong support now (gold line in the last week chart). It is not coincidence or fortune teller, this is technical analysis.
The DJ over the upper range line DJ 15.721 is bullish and strong positive. Do not forget the "V Reversal" broke up target is DJ16.600 approximately and DJ is in unknown territory.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it
Fundamentals :
What will happen from now onwards?
The market is getting good economic news in the last thirty days. This week we are going to get a lot of important economic news like November employment situation, specially on Wednesday. If we continue getting these kinds of news the blue-chip benchmark is going to hit DJ16.500 this year.
The national budget will be discussed again in the Congress in December.
What do I expect? I think that we are going to face some retracement and corrections which is very good for the stock market. People are going to sell some positions in the first two weeks of December to balance their portfolios and to be prepared for 2013 taxes. That means possibly the market is going to be in back and forths for the next two weeks.
The fall of the last three sessions were originated for fears tapering and today's announcement of a Michigan judge allowing Detroit bankruptcy process to continue. This last could be the first between other municipalities in financial problems.
Dear traders and investors, normally the market comes down after Thanksgiving. We could get Christmas Rally after December 20. It all depends on the economic news and the mood of the market. Do not get bored during these two or three weeks and do not take emocional decisions. Discipline is the key.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
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