Dow Jones technically on support

DJ Rsistance:  18,351     All-time high
                       18,206     Breakout
                       18,104     2014 Peak
                       17,810     Important
                       17,579     Very important
                       17,050     Very strong
                       16,667     Upper limit of the tranding range
                       16,460     Light

DL Support    15,980     Lower limit of the trading range
                       15,942    September low
                       15,651    Important
                       15,370    Very important

Technical analysis:
DJIA is still working in its range DJ15,980-16,667. We can affirm that the lower limit supported although today's attempt to break it down.
The support at 15,651 is the next bear's target. Volume increased which means that buyers and sellers came in and fought.
In the long run the DJIA bias is bearish, the bulls need DJIA overcomes DJ16,667 and sleeps over DJ17,050. Technical repairs of the charts are needed if the long term bull market is going to continue.
Charts show a bearish bias in the medium term and possibly in the long run. We have to watch the actual support in the "10 Years Monthly Chart".

Please, click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
Fateful October for stocks and financial markets is "ad portas". Participants and investors do not like uncertainty which is the case right now, they need to clear if the trend is up or down, never doubt.
Important Economic data is coming in October, unemployment rate, non-Farm payroll, U.S.A. and China manufacturing, and so on.
Dear traders and investors, we are going to face a hectic October. There is not much to say because the volatility is high, up or down, due the uncertainty and the August and September weakness. Earnings season is also coming. Bottom? It not easy to define where. I think that the volatility will continue and probably we are going to see lower levels, but I expect a bounce in the next three months.  The market direction depends on economic data coming. The important is to stay cool, do not take emotional decisions, do not liquidate your assets in the down days that is capitulation. I still see a robust U.S.A. economy that is my foundation to expect a bounce. European Community is doing better, EM (Emerging Markets) are complicated specially Brazil. Volkswagen weighs in the financial markets, we'll see what happen with it and it is going to propose a solution for the 11 million diesel cars.
Stay cool! That attitude is needed in these times.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Long term bearish?

DJ resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                          18,206     Breakout
                          18,104     2014 peak
                          17,810     Important
                          17,579     Very important
                          17,050     Very strong
                          16,667     Upper side of the range
                          16,210     Light
                          15,980     Lower side of the range
                          15,651     Important
                          15,370     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The trading range DJ15,980-16,667 is still in place in spite of the breakout attempt after the FED's policy decision and the bearish reversal.
If DJIA stays below DJ16,667, the bears could drive the market in a bearish direction. Bulls need to percolate the important resistance DJ 16,667 and sleep over DJ17,050 to get the opportunity for a bounce to try again DJIA over DJ18,000.
The DJIA like S&P backdrop are taking a bearish hue for the medium term barring the breakout the resistance DJ 16,667.
We are going to analyze the 10 Years monthly chart next week just before the September close. Until now, support is working.
Please, use the chart to navigate into the market, it is not easy.

Please, click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is driven by interest rates raise and China economy. The Chinese President, Ji Xinping, visit to U.S.A. besides Pope's visit are going to dominate the domestic press about international news.
Important economic news are coming this week and next like U.S. PMI PSG Flash, Durable Goods, U.S. Consumer Sentiment, U.S. PMI Services Flash, U.S.Q2 GDP final revision. But they are not going to break the range DJ15,651-17,050., for that market needs the unemployment figures or the very important U.S. PMI Manufacturing that we are going to know in October.
Dear traders and Investors, I am worry because technically the market is showing a possible bearish shift in the medium term and maybe in the long run. Long term bull market is still supported but it is on the limit support, buyers should be drawn.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Interest rates: Ahead of the FED

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 high
                           17,810     Important
                           17,579     Very important
                           17,050     Strong
                           16,667    Upper side trading range

DJ Support:     16,210     Light
                          15,980     Lower side trading range
                          15,651
                          15,370

Technical Analysis:
DJIA stayed in the trading range DJ15,980-16,667 waiting for the FED decision. The limits of the trading range are clear. S&P did the same and both indexes are attacking the range top but it seems that the sellers were drawn on the resistance levels. Its technical bias points to the low side barring a close over DJ16,667.
DJIA needs to atop DJ17,579 to show solid chart repairs.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The U.S. economy and global economy, specially China, Japan and emerging markets like Brazil are driven the financial markets. U.S.A. is doing well and recovering, summer payroll, retail and construction reports show positive path. Q2 2015 GDP grew 3.7% and consumption did +3.1% in the same period. , that is positive for the stocks but markets don't trust China recovery.
Dear traders and in investors, volatility, up and downside, will continue in the next weeks. Correction has ended? We don't know. It is very hard to time the market. We have to follow the ups and down movement and when we'll have the bottom confirmation we should buy and take the bargains. Right now I don't recommend to chase bargains. Market is expecting FED meeting on 16th. and17th. September and its decision about the interest rates increase. Next meeting are in October and December. Personally, I think the rate increase should be for December if there is.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Ups and Downs

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 peak
                           17,810     Important
                           17,579     Very Important
                           17,050     Strong
                           16,640

DJ Support:      15,980
                           15,850
                           15,370

Technical Analysis:
The damage caused in the charts is clear and needs time for the repairs. Last week has created a new trading range DJ15,980-16,640.
For the bulls, the trade over DJ17,579 and 17,810 is very important. And for the bears is the trading below 15,850.
The long term bull market is still in place because the support has worked. In the short an medium term the trens is bearish and it could be worst. If the DJIA stays over DJ16,000 we could conclude the chart repairs are on the way.

Pleaswe click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
The market is receiving the pressure from China (Yuan, growth, stock market), Greece, emerging markets (especially BRICS countries), FED, etc. The volatility (see VIX) in the last four weeks caused fear and panic to the traders and investors. Investors doesn't like fear and it is difficult to endure or support those emotions especially when you are losing money.
The fresh economic news are going to continue coming but the most important for September is the FED interest rates increase decision next week. September is the worst month of the year for the financial markets.
Dear traders and investors, September is going to be very volatile, we are going to be in the money some days and others losing it. I still think that the U.S.A. economy is positive and the EU is recovering in a slower pace. The DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE are in a correction phase. In my opinion the pros are higher than the cons and we should see a bounce before the year's end. But We have to be alert and ready to take dramatic decisions if the direction of the market shifts. Remember, the most important is to preserve the capital.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

Bearish Backdrop

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 high
                           17,810     Important
                           17,579     Very important
                           17,050     Strong
                           16,640

 DJ Support:     15,850     Strong
                           15,370

Technical Analysis:
DJIA broke support at DJ16,460 approximately which is bearish and that indicates a possible shift to a bearish long-term direction. The S&P did the same with its support at SP1,970.
The 10 years monthly chart shows that the long term bull market is at its last and important support, please watch the chart.
The damage in the charts are considerably and is going to take time the repair of them.
September is beginning and volume is coming. The saucer pan formed on the toppish top is clear and the trend is bearish not only for the short term barring support at DJ15,850 works well and produces a bounce up. The resistance at DJ17,579 is the line to confirm the chart repairs are on the way.

Fundamentals:

I expect positive economic news from U.S.A. on productivity, manufacturing, service and employment.

This Friday would be the center of this week expectations with unemployment figures, non-farm payroll expected 213,000 new jobs by average economist. On Wednesday we will receive the ADP jobs, it should be positive, some speak about solid rock.

The last correction of the market was in 2012, S&P corrected 10% between April and June something like 32 days. We got calm during the last 3 years. The correction is healthy for the market prices and it will put out the loose hand investors.

Volatility, ups and downs, is going to be present in September. China puts nervous all the markets, affects and drives the stock exchanges markets.

Dear traders and investors, I am still positive with U.S.A. economy and stock market, European Union is doing better, the damage in the market needs repairs, September should begin with it. Then we have to expect volatility during this month. Please stay cool, stick to your plans, this correction is positive for the financial markets, I expect the rates rise for the end of the year, I told you at the end of 2014 that they were for September at least. If the support breaks down we can get a deeply shift of the market direction.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises