Potential Upside

DJ Resistance:  18,668     All-time high
                           18,470

DJ Support:      18,351     Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433      June low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA near backdrop is slight weaker than S&P but both are attempting to the resistances at the all-time high. This puts the indexes in a bullish mode.
Next supports are DJ18,351 (old all-time high) and DJ18,247 (August low).
DJIA and S&P are in a small range near the highs in the last 7 weeks. Technically the trend points higher.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

Fundamentals:
August is ending. The senior traders will be in office in ten days. Monday's bounce was due to higher GDP estimate to 3.5%, it comes from the idea that consumer is in good shape after Personal Income & Outlays report.
ADP: U.S. economy adds +177,000 private-sector jobs in August. Next announcements to pay attention are: ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services and this coming Friday August non-farm payroll and unemployment rate.
Actually, we need to wait for the regular activity in the market after the hard August to begin the trading again.
Dear traders and investors, I think that we are going to get an interest rate increase by the FED in December that means only one this year. It seems to me that the targets DJ18,960 and S&P2,220 are reasonable for the next one or two months.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

The trend is Up

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                         
DJ Support:      18,470
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,221       Light
                           18, 171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,522      200 days moving average
                           17,433     June low
                           17,125     Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong Septembet 2015 high
                           16,667     Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJ18,470 should act as a strong support in the short term, besides the last three weeks range-bound is DJ18,470-18,668. Technically the breakout to the upside is set due the light sell pressure at resistance in the range which is just under the all-time high.
The three indexes are in new territories in slow motion but supported and always attempting the upside. This is bullish.
The short, medium and long term trend is constructive to the upside according to technical analysis barring a violation of DJ18,470 and 18,016.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 

The market is expecting the FED's Janet Yellen speech this coming Friday at Jackson Hole. It could move the market to the up or down side.

The U.S. economy in Q2 had a slow or moderate growth 1.2%. The third should be stronger after the last news like the new home sales on Tuesday and the better corporate profitability we saw in the last earnings season, besides the low interest rates.

The lack of negative news would be the trigger to continue with the up move in a faster speed. Only very negative news like the consequences of Brexit could bring a strong correction. There are other news where we have to pay attention like the November election.

As I have explained in the Technical Analysis section the market is doing new all-time highs in a very slow mode during the last three weeks. This way is new in the market but is supported projecting new highs,

Dear traders and investors, August is August, not easy. Volume is improving, in ten days the market will be working as always and we will see its behavior. I think that the potential is for the up side. 

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

Small step by small step making new highs

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high

DJ Support:      18,470      Important
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,221
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,498      200 Days moving average
                           17,433      June low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes have continued doing new all-time highs in a slow motion. This continued up move is considered real and supports the bullish bias. The July breakout is supported and a consolidation phase is in place.
Important supports are DJ18,470, 18,351 (old all-time high), 18,171 and 18,016 (breakout).
The Brexit June whipsaw, "V" bottom, puts a target of DJ18,970 and SP2,235 for the S&P 500.
20 days moving average supports DJIA at DJ18,491.
First important support for S&P is SP2,175 equivalent to DJ18,470.
Summer August movement will be reconfirmed in September or October due the too low volume, please watch it at the chart.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The upcoming news are light for the market until September ISM Mfg, ISM Services and unemployment. These three economic news can shake the market. What could the market's behavior be until the news arrive? It should continue the trend that we have witnessed during the last seven weeks let's say to the upside.
Market is having three scenarios in front. First, the up move will continue, second the consolidation phase is going to take long but it would create the base for an upward move and third, we are going to enter in a correction phase that could trigger a bear market. In my opinion de first two scenarios are the most possible, why? The recent economic data has put the Q3 GDP estimated at +3.6% after the Q2   disappointed +1.2%. The consensus estimate +2.8% for Q3. The largest component of GDP is the consumer spending which grew 4.2% in Q2 compare to +1.6% in Q1. Retail sales grew by 3.1% in the 2016 first semester compared with the same period in 2015. Spending on durable goods +8.4%, spending on non-durable goods +6.0% and services +3.0% with respect to Q1.

Dear traders and investors, August is August, the interest rates are still low and the U.S.A. economy is doing well not spectacular but like in the last years path that means slow but constant. I don't know how August is going to close but the trend is up sustained by the technical analysis and fundamentals. We have to discuss about the U.S.A., EU, Japanese, China and other countries debt, it is a dangerous problem, but for the moment liquidity is needed to overcome the various crises.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

S&P, NASDAQ COMPOSITE reaches New All-time Highs

DJ Resistance:  18,622      All-time high
                           18,595      All-time closing high

DJ Support:      18,470.     Important
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,471      200 days moving average
                           17,433      June low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis: 
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have reached a new all-time high. DJIA lingers in these up movement. DJIA maintains its bullish outlook but weaker than the other two indexes.
DJIA supports are DJ18,470, 18,351 and 18,016. And during last 3 weeks DJIA has showed its bullish bias. Over support DJ18,016, DJIA is bullish and looking for the opportunity to do a new all-time high.
Technically speaking the U.S.A. financial markets remain firmly bullish. The target of the V bounce up after Brexit remains at DJ18,966. S&P 500 has the same backdrop and it is in new all-time high like NASDAQ COMPOSITE.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals: 
We are in August facing the summer doldrums. Personally, I don't like to trade during this month, low volume and junior traders make the life difficult.
The market maintains its bullish momentum although the last economic news, they were mixed and negative with the exception of the unemployment rate and the non-farm payroll.
The earnings season of the second quarter is coming in a positive way but non spectacular as market needs to get a strong and solid breakout.
The S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE new highs came in a small movement in the last 2 days that means that the market wants to go higher. My question is fundamentally, is it supported? I don't think so but with the interest rates so low and the U.S.A. economics doing better than the rest of the world, where to put the money? The answer is in the stock market. With the new highs investors do not want to lose the party in the fortune wagon. Therefore I think the next target DJ18,966 and S&P 2,200 will be reached, after that?
Brexit is already felt in the United Kingdom and it is going to affect the other ex-partners.
Dear traders and investors, everything can happen in the month of August, let's say that the market can go higher, down or stay in a small range. My perception is to the upside and very probably SP2,200 will not be the highest of the year. I suggest you to rest during August because this second semester of the year will be intense. I apologize for not offering more clarity in the market but they are very uncertain now.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                         
                         

Bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,622      All-time high
                           18,554
                           18,470      Important

DJ Support:      18,171      April peak
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,016      Strong breakout
                           17,700    
                           17,579      2015 August inflection point
                           17,433      June low
                           17,420      200 Days moving average
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
Markets got a new all-time high during July and August began in a soft mood announcing the summer doldrums.
The DJIA's supports are DJ17,171, 18,104 and very strong DJ18,016 and for the S&P SP2,131 (2015 closing peak), SP2,117.
DJIA has been losing some points in the last 15 days, same for S&P range of 20 points, but we can consider it as supported. DJIA key is DJ18,016 if the index stays over that level is bullish and we can infer that in supports buyer will come.
As conclusion, the near term is weak but in the longer term the bias is still bullish.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.

   Fundamentals:
Bears and bulls in the eternal fight. Who will win this time?  Bears are announcing the sell everything and bulls, relying on the latest news of economic indicators have been positive as Global Manufacturing PMI that rose to 51 from 50.4 and ISM Manufacturing showed new orders at 56.9 opening the way for better figures in the near future, consider that the opportunity to buy is now in the retracements.
It seems that investors are more worried losing the upswing movement than fear for bear market.
Market has to pay attention to the election year, statistically is positive for stocks, and a potential terrorist attack. As the interest rates are too low almost negative, the best place to invest capitals is the stock market.
Corporate earnings are still weak but better than before. We have get nice surprises with earnings better than expected. If the trend continues showing growth I am sure that we are going to witness a new all-time high in the stockmarket.
Monday was a bad day for European Banks although they have approved the European test, only one not. They were 51 banks, 36 are listed in the stock exchange and 35 of them fell.
Spending was in a good shape during July but income came a little bit weaker than expected which may curbed spending in the future. You can consider the stall in the auto dealers -4%.

Dear traders and investors, corporate earnings are the only fuel to inflame the stocks to the upside right now. This Friday we will get the information about the non-farm payroll and the unemployment rate, these news will define the trend direction soon. Summer doldrums are in front of us.  I do not like to trade in August due to the low volume and the senior traders are in holidays. Investment life is not easy and we are accustomed to radical movements, up and down. My thinking is that still there are more reason to the up move than to a big correction and we have to buy the dips. In August this is only a thinking, if you could neutralize your positions and take some holidays would be better because we need to be fresh for the rest of the year, our work will be very hard.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises