Are the bears comming?

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,800.35
                           25,400
                           25,304       50 Days moving average
                           24,990       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,280
                           24,100
                           23,912
                           23,600
                           23,400
                           23,382       200 Days moving average
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
The market is phasing an interest hike and fears of a trade war.
The bears have reemerged and DJIA has broken important supports like 50 days moving average, DJ24,719 2017 close and DJ24,876 2017 peak. DJIA is below 20 and 50 days moving average which is bearish.
DJIA has formed a symmetrical triangle and is near of the vertex. Probably the next backdrop is an explosion to the up or down side. Pay attention to this formation. The negative trend line of the symmetrical triangle shows lower highs that is bearish.
DJIA is the weakest if you compare with the S&P and NASDAQ Composite.
In the short and mid-term the trend is bearish. DJ23,250 should be a strong support and hopefully the downside of the correction.
On the contrary, S&P is over its supports like 2017 close, 2017 peak and 50 days moving average showing an intact recovery attempt.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

 Fundamentals:
The market fears the Wednesday 3/21/2018  FOMC trade war and Facebook sell-off.
Personally, I think that the FED Meeting Announcement will raise the interest rates 25 basis points and this hike will calm down the markets. Trade war is different because it could affect the consumers. Facebook sell-off was originated due a bad press leak about customer data and millions of user profiles accessed by politicians. The Facebook stocks were sent down but it is a Facebook problem.
The hike of the rates will assure to the market the FED's confidence about the economy therefore I expect a bounce up of the market. The market is in a correction and consolidation phase, personally I expect DJ23,250 as a strong support in this phase but volatility is in place and it could be working for weeks.
Traders will pay attention to Fed's Chair Press Conference, it is the first one by the new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after Janet Yellen.
Dear traders and investors, volatility is in the market and we have to live with it in the next weeks, hopefully not months. My suggestion is still "Buy the Dip".

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                       
                         

NASDAQ new all-time high

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           28,800.35
                           25,516
                           25,316       50 Days moving average

 DJ Support:     25,000       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,505
                           24,280
                           24,100
                           23,912
                           23,600
                           23,400
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,247       200 Days moving average
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
NASDAQ Composite has gotten a new all-time high and it is moving in uncharted territory with a solid up trend. S&P has broken up the negative trend line and it is over 50 days moving average, this last one is now a strong support. S&P trend is bullish but if it breaks down the 50 days moving average it could change, it should attack SP2,800.
DJIA has formed a symmetrical triangle and the index is still in, it has to break to the up or downside and explode. Next targets to the upside are DJ25,316 (50 days moving average), DJ25,316 and DJ25,800. DJIA trends to the upside in the mid and long term barring a violation at DJ23,250.
There is a "common gap" on Friday, normally that kind of gaps are filled. It is just below DJ25,000.

Please watch the chart where you aregoing to see the battlefield.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Last week the market exploded due the excellent job report. The market is mixed during the last days. We can consider that is breathing before more gains. I think this is a profit taking and a reaction from the last uncertainties like the new Secretary of State.
February low seems to be the strong support for the correction. NASDAQ Composite has done new all-time highs, S&P is near its all-time high and DJIA is lagging but supported.
FOMC is for Mach 21st and I expect a probable 0.25 rate increase that could trigger an up move to the all-time highs.
The economy continues its positive path, corporations continue doing money, consumption is strong and the market looks bullish. But we have to pay attention to some instabilities like United Kingdom - Russia about the assassination of the ex-spy, it could escalate. It sems to me that volatility will be present for weeks.
Dear traders and investors, life is not easy and the markets are the same. I am still positive with the stock market and the U.S. economy therefore I expect 10 to 15% gains for 2018.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises                    

Dow Jones & S&P formed a triangle

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,800.35
                           25,500
                           25,309       50 Days moving average
                         
DJ Support:      24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,715.19  Support of old range
                           24,500
                           24,100
                           23,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174
                           23,089       200 Days moving average
                           23,002       Strong, Gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak

Technical Analysis:
The 2017 peak area has acted as support for DJIA and S&P. It has been reconfirmed as a strong support.
The range DJ24,719 (2017 close) and 24,876 (2017 peak) is the strong support for DJIA. The 50 days moving average at DJ25,245 was violated and now is acting as resistance at DJ25,309.
March start is volatile, DJIA and S&P have survived the test of the support at the 2017 peak and close.
A triangle is forming on the daily chart.
We conclude that the charts are irregular and the recovery attempt is still in the charts. The trend continues to be bullish although the last corrections.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Some Trump's decisions are creating uncertainties in the financial markets. Uncertainty is terrible for these markets but that passed because what actually counts is the fundamental strength: economy and earnings.
Q4 earnings season was excellent, 2017 PBI growth was 2.5% and expectations for 2018 are 3% or more and it would be the best from 2005. FED Chairman Jerome Powell is enthusiastic around the U.S. economy in my opinion that explains what he mentioned about a possible 4th. rate hike in 2018. This backdrop puts us on the brilliant path.
Consumer Confidence index is at 130 from 2000 is the highest level. Consumer spending maintains a solid pace.
Certainly all of this boost a healthy economy. As I have explained the market is basing before the next leg up. This new base has to be solid and has have digested all the doubts about the spectacular market hike of 2017. My question is if DJ23,250 almost the low of this correction is the low boundary. In my opinion yes but we have to confirm it. I find the S&P well supported right now at SP2,700. This backdrop puts us on a brilliant path.

Dear traders and investors, I am still optimistic with the stock market and I think that the strategy is to continue to buy on the dips.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises