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jueves, 21 de junio de 2018

Dow Jones at relevant support

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35
                           25,500       March peak
                           25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           24,924       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,654       50 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,278       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
DJIA could not come across DJ25,500 resistance and it took a correction way. DJIA has gotten a three months high and turned back correcting the up move.
Don't forget that DJIA has formed a W BOTTOM with March and May low and the pivot is DJ25,086 (May high) with a target on DJ26,870. If the retracement continues could negate this formation but at the moment it is valid and is in play. The index is still raising from W BOTTOM establishing higher highs and higher lows.
DJIA came across the strong support DJ25,719 (2017 close) and now is supported by 50 days moving average at DJ24,654.
Support at DJ24,280 is an inflection point in the short and mid term. In the same periods of time the trend is still bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The trade war fears are weighting in the market. If you watch the chart you can realize that the bounces were stopped by geopolitical events.
In my opinion the market does not expect a trade war and believe in a North Korea denuclearization through an agreement.
The economy is doing very well plus the tax cut of the corporations will growth with investments done with the tax cut money spared and it will produce more and better jobs. The individuals tax cut will strengthen the consumption that will stimulate the corporations to produce more to satisfy their demand.
DJIA is down again due the trade war fears but the small-cups are higher in all-time highs. Why? the explanation is easy, normally small-cups depend on the domestic market and with the government stimulus in the economy they are not going to suffer with the trade war instead they will benefit from higher domestic demand. Small-cups Russel 2000 and NASDAQ Composite are in all-time new highs.
GDP 2018 second trimester estimated in +4.7% by the Atlanta Fed.

Dear traders and investors, I am still positive with the U.S.A. economy therefore I expect corporations' better business that will be reflected in the stocks prices. What worries me is that I don't know is the Mr. Trump government is following a clear and concrete plan or the government is reacting to the China, EU, North TLC, etc. responses to the U.S. government initiatives.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises





                         
                         

miércoles, 13 de junio de 2018

Nasdaq at New Highs

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,835.35
                           25,500       March peak
           
DJ Support:      25,086       May peak
                           25,000
                           25,902       20 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,516       50 Days moving average
                           24,280
                           24,100       200 Days moving average
                           23,500
                           23,250       Very strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535

Technical Analysis:
June breakout seems supported. S&P is fighting with SP2,780 resistance (inflection point) and NASDAQ Composite is doing and keeping new high.
DJIA is over 20, 50 and 200 days moving average and broke out DJ25,086 (May peak) which is extremely bullish. Now the May peak (DJ25,086) should be a strong support, next is DJ24,876 (2017 peak) and DJ24,716 (2017 close).
DJIA has elongated its June break out when broke DJ25,086 (May peak). DJIA theoretically has formed a W with a double bottom market by March (DJ23,533) and May (DJ23,531) low. The breakout was done at DJ24,859 (April high) and this W has a target in the DJ26,100 area.
Now the stronger financial index is NASDAQ Composite.
Price action in the 3 financial indexes is notably bullish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Interest rates hike in 0.25% is almost sure done this afternoon after the FED Meeting. That will show the FED's confidence on the state of the economy. This pronouncement is for today at 2 p.m. o'clock.
There is nothing about the summit between Trump and Kim Jon Un but it was positive. Time will show if North Korea denuclearizes, that is the world's hope. In my opinion the meeting was a good first step.
The economy is in good shape, corporate profits are growing, consumer confidence at highs in the last 18 years.
Mythical investors like Dimon, Buffet, etc. have been lauded the behaviour of the market and the economy and they expect stocks moving higher.
Months before we have determined DJ23,250 as a decisive support for the bulls and we have expected high volatility during the months to become. Now, the moment for the bulls is coming with the second semester at view.
Dear traders and investors, we have worked all this volatility with calm and clear expectations, I am not sure if the volatility times are at the end but I am still bullish with the stock market and optimist with next semester.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises