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jueves, 25 de octubre de 2018

Technicals Leaning

DJ Resistance:  26,824.78  All-time high
                           26,616.71  Old all-time high (January peak)
                           26,000       Strong
                           25,835.35  February high
                           25,798       50 Days moving average
                           25,732
                           25,717       20 Days moving average
                           24,992       200 Days moving average
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close

DJ Support:      24,533.19  Wednesday's low
                           24,000
                           23,500
                           23,250
                           23,173       Strong, upside gap
                           23,002       Strong, downside gap

Technical Analysis:
These late days have changed the trend in the charts. The short term is bearish but medium and long still are bullish with damages in the chart. S&P and DJIA have violated its 200 days moving average which is bearish.
NASDAQ Composite has done the same and it has lost more than 10%. Correction is considered when the index has lost 20% from the high of the movement, bear market is when the lost is over 20%. Right now, we can speak about a retracement. Until this moment we have not seen a capitulation then one can think that the market was overbought, there was a profit taking and buyers are expecting for opportunities to buy.
Positive trend line (watch the chart) has supported DJIA but today is the first day that the index sleeps below it. The market needs a confirmation of the positive trend line breaking.
We need to see the DJIA behavior during the next days.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.
   
  Fundamentals:
 The market again reverses. The S&P has lost all the 2018 gains. In 15 days all those gains were wiped out . The retracement could be wealthy to adjust the prices with the new P/E.

The economy, the corporate earnings (81% of the corporate earnings per share that we have seen during this season are better than expected), employment and consumption are still positive with nice promises. The current earnings look great. Economic data doesn't show sign of pending recession, don't forget that recessions kill the bull markets.
We are witnessing a correction in a long-term bull market, almost 10 years, which has uncertainties about China, trade war, rising rates, nuclear pact with Russia, journalist Khashoggi case with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
There is no capitulation in the market but we have to see the bottom to aspire to have a rebound toward the highs we have seen in the market.

Dear traders and investors, I am still bullish with the market but not steadfastly. It is because my analysis confirms me my expectations. Don't forget that October is very volatile and the market is superstitious due that the crashes occurred on October.

I try as always to express my analysis in the simpler way to facilitate the digestion of the traders and investors.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                   
                         
                         

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