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lunes, 2 de septiembre de 2013

September stock market?

Dow Jones Resistance : 15.658 HIGH August 2,2013
                                       15.500
                                       15.050
                                       14.916

                   Support     : 14.760
                                       14.551   Strong
                                       14.382   Strong  3/18/2013 low
                                       14.127
                                       13.784   Strong  2/25/2013

From technical analysis the Dow Jones Index broke down  the last year positive trend line around DJ 15.000 but it is still in the positive trend line and positive channel from February 27, 2009 lows, that is very good.

I am still optimistic with the stock market and today we have gotten encouraging news about factory activities growth  in Spain, Italy, United Kingdom and China but due the actual conjuncture and September is regularly the worst month of the year for the stock market, I prefer to apply "cash-is-king".

I am going to watch these events or statistic news during September and explain why I will be for the cash to be ready to jump into the market.
- India deficit and Rupee weakness
- Brasil weak Real and interest rates rose to 9% p.a.
- Syria war fears, it is difficult to calibrate the consecuences
- QE tapering, watch FOMC on September 17th. and 18th. Will tapering begin? The U.S. deficit has shrunk and the Treasury needs to issue less new securities.
- China weak growth
- U.S.A. weak growth, it seems that GDP is going to grow only 1.7% on the third quarter instead 2% as market expected. BoA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sacks have reduced their expectations. Debt ceiling is for October.
- U.S. housing sales are not growing as last year, besides the 40% of the house sales are paid in cash. That means that foreigners and investors are the buyers, this is not good for a sustainable economy.

My dear fellows, I intend to support you because I know how hard is our profession and the loneliness that we came in our decisions.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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