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martes, 12 de noviembre de 2013

S&P failed new highs

DJ Resistance : 15.797 All time high

DJ Support      : 15.721 October peak
                           15.580 Minor
                           15.540 Strong (hourly chart)
                           15.410
                           14.760 Strong (daily chart)
                           14.400 Very strong (1 year daily chart)

Technical Analysis :
Finally DJ got new all-time highs and a weekly close over 15.721 (October peak). The blue-chip benchmark penetrated the upperside of the range ( 14.400 - 15.721) being the leader this time. The DJ index is still over 20,50 and 200 days moving averages and over the positive trend line and in the positive channel from the lows of March 2009 (watch last week chart). All of these are bullish.
The S&P failed trying to get new highs (over October peak 1.775). Right now its resistances are S&P 1.771.95 (all-time closing high) and 1.775.22 (all-time high). Maybe we are facing the S&P exhaustion if we consider the overbought indicators and we could get a healthy correction in November. I say that because the Nasdaq is lagging now. The S&P is ready for new highs but when?.
The DJ index and the S&P promise new highs in the short term, and its median and long term inclination point for higher.
Please click to enlarge the chart

Fundamentals :
The fundamentals are more difficult than the technicals specially in these times.
The U.S.A. economy is growing slow, but growing. We still have in front of us the budget approuval (December) and the debt ceiling (February) among other incertainties like the consumer sentiment, unemployment, tapering and so on. The earnings season is positive, the corporations are healthy and have cash. The  world needs a sustainable growths, that is the real problem.
I reed on Monday an article in the WSJ by Alexandra Scaggs "Five years after the finantial crisis, individual investors are piling into stocks again amid sings that the U.S. economy is slowly gaining steam. The buyers, many with investment portfolios that were scorched during the market meltdown, are climbing aboard a ride to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average".
As you know when everybody jumps into the stock market it is considered a contrarian indicator.
I would like to suggest to read the next article http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21589439-rich-world-and-especially-euro-zone-risks-harmfully-low-inflation in The Economist about deflation and ultra low inflation.
Live is not easy, it is a fight. I am optimistic by my nature. I have learned that one has to do his work studying and analyzing to develop solid and sustainable positions to face life or markets if so we want to call them.
Janet Yellen, nominee to take over as chair of the Fed, heads to Congress on Thursday for her confirmation hearing.

Dear traders and investors, rationally I consider that the market is in a positive way that we will see higher levels based on fundamentals and technical analysis. We should have two rallies before the end of the year, for Thanksgiving and Christmast. This is my opinion.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises




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