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martes, 3 de diciembre de 2013

And now?

DJ Resistance : 16.174    All-time high
                            16.120
                            16.098

DJ Support      :  15.900    Closing low on November 22nd.
                            15.860
                            15.797
                            15.721    Strong (October pick)
                            15.550    Strong
                            14.760    Very strong (range support)

Technical Analysis :
We got the small rally for Thanksgiving with a new high in the Dow Jones industrial average. The problem is from now on.
The DJ and S&P did new record highs last week and we faced retracement in the last three sessions. The strong support at DJ15.900.82 as indicated last week worked very well this Tuesday. The 20 days moving average is acting as strong support now (gold line in the last week chart). It is not coincidence or fortune teller, this is technical analysis.
The DJ over the upper range line DJ 15.721 is bullish and strong positive. Do not  forget the "V Reversal" broke up target is DJ16.600 approximately and DJ is in unknown territory.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it


Fundamentals :
What will happen from now onwards?
The market is getting good economic news in the last thirty days. This week we are going to get a lot of important economic news like November employment situation, specially on Wednesday. If we continue getting these kinds of news the blue-chip benchmark is going to hit DJ16.500 this year.
The national budget will be discussed again in the Congress in December.
What do I expect? I think that we are going to face some retracement and corrections which is very good for the stock market. People are going to sell some positions in the first two weeks of December  to balance their portfolios and to be prepared for 2013 taxes. That means possibly the market is going to be in back and forths for the next two weeks.
The fall of the last three sessions  were originated for fears tapering and today's announcement of a Michigan judge allowing  Detroit bankruptcy process to continue. This last could be the first between other municipalities in financial problems.

Dear traders and investors, normally the market comes down after Thanksgiving. We could get Christmas Rally after December 20. It all depends on the economic news and the mood of the market. Do not get bored during these two or three weeks and do not take emocional decisions. Discipline is the key.

 Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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