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martes, 4 de marzo de 2014

Geopolitical tension: Ukraine

DJ Resistance:  16.576.66    All-time closing high
                            16.520        Strong

DJ Support:        16.174       November peak and 50 days MA
                            16.040
                            15.721       Very strong
                            15.340.23  Strong

Technical Analysis:
The S&P has gotten a new historical highs, confirmed its uptrend with this and today's closing high.
The market got a sharp pullback on Monday and today bounced up in a clear technical move. The DJIA supported at the November peak and its 50 days moving average (MA) on Monday and recovered the uptrend on Tuesday. Technically speaking the confirmation of these supports opens the way to the strong resistance at DJ16.520. The DJ should follow the S&P and NASDAQ and try new highs.
We are still in front of a bull market, don't forget it.

As commented, DJ lags the S&P. The three indexes are pointing up and should continue in this up move. Te DJ is forming a possibly "V" reversal, five years daily chart, like the S&P.

Conclusion: The DJ backdrop and today's sharp bounce after a consolidation phase put the DJIA in a clear bullish technical uptrend.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.




Fundamentals:
We still have important economic news this week like "Beige Book", ADP employment, Productivity, Factory Orders, Non-farm Payroll, Unemployment, Trade Deficit, etc. All of them will impact the market direction.
U.S.A and EU are growing, they need more speed. China's PBI target for 2014 is 7.5% as it was for 2013 and got 7.7% for the year.
Monday's backdrop was due for geopolitical: Ukraine-Russia uncertainties. This is a very sensible problem for the world and a big risk for the markets. Tuesday's bounce was due to the ease of the fears about Russia invasion. Putin ordered to stop the infiltration in Ukraine and the Russia's army stayed in the border, out of Ukraine. Putin maintains the military threat as the last option. These events and positions eased fears and the market bounced. What will happen? No one knows for sure. The market is breathing with the expectation that the geopolitical problems will be resolved positively. Hopefully! Nothing is written.
Dear traders and investors, the DJ continues in its uptrend, watch the five years daily chart. The bull market have not ended, it is still in place.
Not too much to say this week, we have to pay attention to all these events as always.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises



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