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martes, 29 de abril de 2014

Still in a bull market

DJ Resistance:  16.631        All-time high
                            16.576.66   All-time closing high

DJ Support:       16.310        50 days moving average (50 MA)
                           16.174        November peak
                           16.015        Strong

DJIA is still in the range DJ16.015 - 16.631.
What I found important is that the DJ and S&P bounced up from its 50 days moving average (DJ16.310 on Monday) which means both index have drawn buyers in those levels. Technically it is a strong reaction for the upside to strike the all-time closing high DJ16.576,66.
The majors resistances according to the technical analysis need three, four or five attempts to sweep them away.
We are still in a bull market (watch five years daily chart positive channel). The range that has been developed in the last six months is a sign of the market consolidation. We have to pay attention to the momentum, if the DJIA loses it we could face a deep correction.
Technical analysis shows a bullish trend with momentum for the market, we have to watch every day S&P1.850 as strong support for all the market.
I am struck the low volume of the last days.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it

Fundamentals:
April is ending and the DJIA is still in the range. Earnings are positive this second trimester so far. There are important economic news this week like unemployment rate, non-farm payroll, ADP employment, GDP, personal income, consumer spending, factory orders and so on. These news and earnings should move the market and break the range.
DJIA and S&P are pointing up while NASDAQ is lagging. I think that institutions are relocating their positions that means that they have sold Nasdaq shares to take positions in S&P and DJIA stocks.
Remember the saying  "sell in May and go away", is it going to be true this year?
Dear traders and investors, I feel sorry not to give you more lights this time. I indicated in the first week of March that the market was without fuel to go up and we should wait for the earnings season, we are in right know and the DJIA is still in the range. I mentioned last week too that we were ready for the new highs but we were not yet in. Look always for the facts, trading and investments are not dreams or game of chance, they are sciences. Keep cool and be rational! I am still bullish but I have to follow the market, I am not a story teller or I think that the market has to follow me.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises


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