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miércoles, 22 de octubre de 2014

Dow jones closed over its breakout

DJ Resistance: 17,354.54  All-time record high
                          17,279.94  All-time record close
                          17,152       Breakdown point
                          17,015
                          16,900      50 days moving average    
                          16,775      1 Year Positive Trend line, 20DMA

DJ Support:     16,588     Strong 2013 peak, 200DMA
                          16,320     Strong April low
                          16,015     Very strong
                          15,850     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
Market run down directly until it got its strong support at DJ16, 015 and hence it has made a spectacular bounce up. Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded DJ16, 588, 2013 peak and 200 days moving average, which means that the index is in stabilization area. We have to pay attention if the index stays over that level to continue stabilizing.
The market is almost repeating the September-October 2013 pattern. You can see it in the 2 years daily chart.
DJIA penetrated DJ16, 015 support twice but immediately bounced up and closed the trading day over that level. The closing of the day is very important to analyse the bounce up and to check the damage in the charts. That means that the DJIA actually attracted buyers in the indicated support.

The trend in the short term is still to the downside and in the long run the bull market is still in play.
Please click over te chart to enlarge it



Fundamentals:
The U.S. earnings season and the rumor, that the European Central Bank is going to buy private bonds to introduce more liquidity into the market to avoid disinflation, are driven the market to the upside.
Just Monday October 19th, was the 1987 crash anniversary but this time the DJIA went up forming a clear candlestick hammer. It make me happy because I remembered those terrible days in 1987 when investors tried to sell their positions.
The earnings season as catalyzer has supported the market and turned it up. There are a lot of complications in the world economy, U.S.A. is doing well but not the European Union, China, Japan nor emerging markets. Geopolitical is heavy. Then, I think the market is going to be volatile and going to the up and downside.
Dear traders and investors, we are still in October and market participants are very superstitious, we are not navigating in calm waters. Therefore, probably we are going to face extreme movements in the next days. The important is DJIA to stay over DJ16,588 for the stabilization and to have chances for the Thanksgiving Rally.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

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