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martes, 13 de enero de 2015

Actually toppish in the short term

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45  All-time high
                           17,916       High of last week
                           17,800

DJ Support:      17,600      Medium
                           17,278      September peak closing
                           17,262      Strong last week low
                           16,990      Very strong & 200 DMA
                           16,588      Very strong 2013's peak
                           16,320    
                           16,015
                           15,854      Very strong October low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA supported last week at DJ17,262 almost DJ17,278 September peak closing. What does it mean? The index supported on a very strong level and created a positive uptrend line from October low which worked as Tuesday support (please watch the One Year daily Chart). This one shows a constructive market to the upside. The buyers came on the support that we have indicated as big battlefield.
The long term trend is to the upside despite the January great volatility. The bull market is still in place, please watch last week 10 Years Monthly Chart.
It seems to me that market is forming an extended range DJ16,990-18,103.45 considering the clear positive uptrend line coming from 2014 October low.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
Non-farm payroll and unemployment rate were a great surprise last Friday, more the revised November figures to 353,000 new jobs was splendid. U.S.A. doing well in contrast to European Union, Japan, China, Russia and some emerging markets like Brazil, Venezuela, oil plays heavy in the world and the geopolitical. I read low interest rates for 2015 and if they are increased would mean strong economy recovery. Low interest rates are positive for stock market and it would potential the positive economy effects in the financial market.
I am not clear for 2015 but I suspect a good year for the stock market and it could growth near 10% during this period.
Economic news are important for the market but we entered in the earnings season and if they are positive during the next two weeks the DJIA is going to look for new highs.
Dear traders and investors, I have to continue with the analysis to get a projection for 2015 but it seems very feasible to see the DJIA near DJ19,500 for the end of the year. Let's work hard to propose a scenario for the 2015!
Remember that we are in earnings season!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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