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miércoles, 11 de marzo de 2015

DJ in Consolidation Range

DJ Resistance: 18,289  All-time high
                          18,053  2014 close high

DJ Support:     17,600   Light
                          17,350   September high
                          17,278   September closing high
                          16,990   Very strong
                          16,588   2013 peak
                          16,320
                          16,015
                          18,854  Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has broken the support at DJ18,053 and strong DJ17,759, besides it closed under its 50 days moving averages. That means that attracted buyers were fought by the sellers although the volume increased.
The consolidation range is DJ16,990-18,289. The six years bull market is still in place, please watch ten years monthly chart. The correction in the consolidation range is good for the stock market. It is necessary DJIA stays over DJ16,990 to look for new highs.
The long and medium term trend is clearly to the upside barring DJ16,990 violation.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


 Fundamentals:
The DJIA did new all-time high and then retraced.
As I have indicated two weeks ago and last week, the market needs more steam to look for new highs. Interest rates are in the debate and the market is reacting too nervous. Actually, I do not expect an increase in the interest rates until September at least. U.S.A. is doing well instead European Union needs.
Investors fear the interest rates increase which put the money more expensive and it affects the stock market. My opinion is that Europe began its QE to stimulate its economy with delay. Just when U.S.A. is leaving the 2008 crisis effects and 10 years bond pays 2.22% p.a. The bund is paying 0.4% p.a., Italy and Spain 1.3% p.a. Let's say less than U.S.A. bonds show is in a better shape. Actually, I agree that the FED is ready to increase the interest rates because the U.S.A. has improved its economy but the competion in the bond market shows that the investors are going to put their money on the American bonds, better rates and quality. Then, how are the interest rates to hike hugely?
Dear traders and investors, I do not fear the FED will increase the interest rates, we should see it as positive because it means that the economy is working well. I am still optimistic with the stock market for this year.
  Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises          

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