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miércoles, 22 de abril de 2015

Still Bullish at Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,289     All-time high
                           18,054 - 18,103 2014 peak

DJ Support:      17,750     Light
                           17,579     Strong March low
                           17,400     Strong 200 days moving average
                           16,990     Strong
                           15,854     Strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA is still in the clear range DJ17,579-18,289. The index dropped last week and from the low of the week, DJ17,750, bounced up looking for the strong resistance DJ18,054-18,103 equivalent to 2014 peak. These attempts to break the strong resistances are positive for the bull case. And the DJIA is well supported at DJ 17,750 and 17,579.
The market behavior is constructive for the upside barring a violation of DJ17,579 and 16,990.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
We are getting negative reports then market goes down and immediately bounces up. The market went down drastically on Friday due to weak Greece and China news. We saw a strong rebound on Monday. DJIA retraced light on Tuesday, the index is near the important resistances but it is not able to penetrate them. What does it mean? My interpretation is that the earnings season was not strong enough, manufacturing data was soft then the market needs a good catalyzer to bring us to new historical highs. Maybe we can conclude that the stock market is in a holding pattern near its all-time high. For the moment I don't see this special catalyzer.
Dear traders and investors, April is ending, May is not good for the stock market usually. The bull market is still in place waiting for something. If the stocks are fully valued, meaning that there is not enough fuel, then the market needs a correction. We have to pay attention this and next week to the resistances. I am still optimistic with the stock market but we have to be flexible to face changes.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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