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miércoles, 27 de mayo de 2015

Alertness

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,318
                           18,206     Breakout

DJ Support:      18,004    50 Days moving average
                           17,910
                           17,750
                           17,579     Very strong
                           16,990-17,050 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA did new all-time high last week and then pulled back to the trading range. The last week breakout was without follow through. This is the market behavior in the last five months. The volume is not accelerating during the breakouts.
DJIA has an important support at DJ18,004 (50 days moving average) and at DJ17,910.
The medium and long term trend is to the upside. In the short term the DJIA is in a trading range DJ17,579-18,351.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.



Fundamentals:
DJIA got its new all-time high amid non convincing economic news especially in the manufacturing sector. That could explains the lack of follow through besides the earnings season is almost gone.
The investor's optimism means that they expect this news as transitory, they are going to be solid in the future. The VIX, complacency, could be interpreted in the same way.
The interest rates are actually low and the stock market is a better place to invest. Foreign exchange market is agitated with the U.S. dollar revaluation and still energy markets don't end to accommodate.
Dear traders and investors, I tried to explain that May is not an easy month to trade. Anf besides the failure to get intense activity in new territories put us in a defensive mode. Please be cautious and pay attention to economic news, I think the correct strategy for May is lighten the portfolio.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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