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martes, 21 de julio de 2015

Summer Rally?

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                           18,206     Breakout
                           18,104     2014 Peak

DJ Support:      17,810     Strong
                           17,740     200 Days moving average
                           17,579     Strong
                           17,465     5 Months low
                           17,050     Very strong

Technical Analysis:
NASDAQ COMPOSITE did new record high while DJIA and S&P could not break DJ18,103 (2014 peak) and SP2,130 resistances. These resistances are very technical. It could mean that the breakout for new record highs is not mature. The weakest index between the three is DJIA.
The trend remains firmly to the upside for medium and long term. For the short term the resistances are strong, possibly consolidation needs more time.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are in the earnings season and today was not good for the corporation's results. Apple shares went down 8% after quarterly results, GoPro 7% down and Chipotle 7% down too. MSFT (Microsoft) beat the estimates but lost 3.98% after hours. IBM and United Technologies also slide.
The most important corporate earnings are coming in the next days, they could give fuel to the stock market. Right now the three indexes are flirting with the upper bound.
Dear traders and investors, in my opinion the backdrop has two alternatives. First, positive earnings could boost the indexes to new all-time high. Secondly, weak or neutral corporate earnings will put the stock market in a defensive way and it is going to stay in the trading range DJ17,465-18,351 for a while, that means no summer rally and boring August. My comment goes about earnings season because it is the possible trigger in these moments.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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