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miércoles, 26 de agosto de 2015

Dead-cat Bounce?

DJ Resistance: 18,351     All-time high
                          18,206     Breakout
                          18,204     2014 high
                          17,810     Important
                          17,579     Very important
                          17,050
                          15,850     Very strong

DJ Support:     15,370
                          14,500

Technical Analysis:
The damage inflicted in the charts from last week is considerable and the recovery is going to take time.
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have violated its 200 days moving average which is significant because these important supports broke down.
DJIA has lost from last top DJ18,104 (2014 peak) about 2,200 points. DJIA has lost about 2,900 points from the high of the year which means a 14.5% correction. Markets movement over 10% is a correction and 20% means bear market by definition. DJIA needs to stabilize over DJ17,579 breakdown and tested point, please watch daily chart. And break up DJ17,810 to look for a higher leg. DJIA closed today below DJ15,850 a strong support that shows weakness and put the index in the defensive way.
As we realised in the prior weeks, the DJIA was doing lower highs and lower lows, it was very clear in the charts, I read that S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE were ready to support DJIA but the Shanghai Stock Exchange sold off put the Global markets in a defensive mood.
The indexes charts are awful showing the fall in the last days.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Dow and European markets are well but China is where the play is. U.S.A and Europe are going to be affected for what's going on in China. The last days fall are actually awful and the panic is in the stock market backdrop. This is diferent with what happened with Greece because of the size.
China has taken the correct measures to face the fall with delay. Right now the factor of confidence is in place, and investments = confidence is in all over the world.
Dear traders and investors, these moments are really hectic but we have to stay cool and rational. I think U.S.A. economy is in shape and EU is coming back its weak economy, Spain is growing over 3% p.a. Almost all the world commerce with China, emerging and frontier states need China demand for its raw materials and products. The markets damage done is there, this is the reality. Technical analysis shows the fall and indicate that a recovery is going to take time and efforts, and the possible bounces up could be "dead-cat bounce". On the fundamentals U.S.A and EU are in shape and they were doing positive before China's fall, Chinese authorities are taken measures to reestablish stabilization in the first step and growth after. Let's see the bottoming process without forgetting the emotional state of the traders and investors many of whom could try to sell in the bounces up.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises 

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