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martes, 6 de octubre de 2015

Bull-bear at the cross

DJ Resistance:  18,351     All-time high
                         18,206     Breakout
                         18,104     2014 Peak
                         17,810     Important
                         17,579     Very important
                         17,050     Very strong
                         16,933.43 September high
                         16,790     50Days moving average (50DMA)

DJ Support:      16,667     Old upper limit trading range
                         16,460     Light
                         15,980     Lower limit trading range
                         15,942.37 September low
                         15,651.24 Important
                         15,370.33 Very strong

Technical analysis:
DJIA did an impressive bounce up from the support (lower limit of the trading range) and broke the upper limit of the trading support DJ16,667 and today closed at 16,790.
For the bulls is very important to break DJ16,796 (50 DMA) and DJ16,993.43 (September high). They could indicate an inflection point. Those levels are going to be the place of a bull-bear confrontation. If these resistances are broken up, the chart repairs could be considered solid and the bulls will look for a rally before year's end. If not, the landscape would be a bearish consolidation because the important mentioned resistances are a wall.
DJIA is fighting with the 50 days moving average and with the downward trend line that you can see in the chart.
The first support is DJ16,667, before it was a very important resistance.
S&P is capped at SP1,993 and is below its 50 days moving average like NASDAQ COMPOSITE. DJIA is the strongest index right now because it broke up the upper limit of the trading range and is just over its 50 days moving average.
The backdrop is still bearish.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Employment and U.S.A. manufacturing came in a not positive figures as the economy needs. These triggered the market to the upside on Friday because investors extrapolated that the interest rates increase by the FED will be at least for December or next year.
I think we don't have seen real selling in the stock market. Volume, during trade sessions, has increased lately but not enough to think about panic and capitulation. Instead, I would think that hunter bargains are ready like snappers.
World Bank and FMI annual meeting is taking place in Lima right now and the economic prospects for the world are weak but showing improvement for 2015, 2016 and the future.
Dear traders and investors, my position is to be alert with a bearish bias although DJIA is breaking up resistances at the top of the range. Bulls need better and fluid economic news to get a good bounce. Earnings season is coming and it could help them. For the moment we are waiting for new economic news and analyze them. I am very sorry because this year the trading in the financial markets is so hard and I have realized soon the toppishness of the market but I could not assist you defining a clear direction. I try my best, this year is actually awful. The market is stuck in a range with the risk of a bear market. Stay cool, we still have three months to work before year's end and do money.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

1 comentario:

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