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martes, 10 de noviembre de 2015

Resting before Thanksgiving?

DJ Resistance: 18,351     All-time high
                        18,206     Breakdown
                        18,104     2014 peak
                        17,978     High before pullback
                        17,810     Light

DJ Support:     17,658     Light
                        17,579     August breakdown
                        17,576     200 days moving average
                        17,125     Light
                        17,050     Very strong
                        16,933.43 September high
                        16,667     Breakdown very strong
                        16,460     Light
                        15,980     Very strong
                        15,651.24 Important
                        15,370.33 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
The market pullback was overdue, why? Because, watch the chart, the "W" target was attempted the day when the high was DJ17,978.
The stock market normally after the hectic October takes a rest until Thanksgiving or Christmas.
What is important is the strong support at DJ17,579 (August breakdown and prior strong support) and DJ17,576 (200 days moving average). The market can consolidate over those supports during these two weeks or until Christmas to try its way up again.
The consolidation over DJ16,933.43-17,050 will maintain a bullish bias for the long run.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

   Fundamentals:
The jobs report on Friday was very positive and worked in favor for the rate hike in December. The last earnings season is neutral, maybe more positive than negative. Besides, higher interest rates will strengthen the U.S. Dollar. This backdrop is mixed, consumers are going to be big players in the U.S. economy, the exports could fall and we could see a portfolio rotation during the consolidation.
Dear traders and investors, we got a nice rally in the last five weeks, it is time for healthy consolidation and to rest. I suggest you to do the same. We are going to follow the market trying to catch if we are going to have the Thanksgiving rally. This year is not easy, I think traders, investors and public in general are tired. All of them will try to do the year in these last two months and to do mistakes would be easy. Take a week for rest!

 Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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