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miércoles, 17 de febrero de 2016

Bounce Up Still Below Important Resistance

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                        18,206      Breakout
                        18,104      2014 peak
                        17,978      November peak
                        17,810
                        17,579      Inflection point
                        17,322      200 Days moving average
                        17,125      Old support
                        17,050      Old strong support
                        16,933.43  September peak
                        16,667      Very strong
                        16,468
                        16,200      Light
 DJ Support:
                        15,980      Strong
                        15,766      January closing low
                        15,450      Strong
                        15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA went down and before DJ15,450 support bounced up and began a possible rally closing today at DJ16,196. Next crucial resistance is at DJ16,468 and the gauge bear-bull resistance is at DJ16,667, S&P equivalent is SP1,950. Over that resistance the bulls can dream about charts repairs and new leg up. The 2016 financial markets plunge has generated a mayor technical damages on the charts.
DJ15,980 is again a strong support.
In the short term the DJIA is looking to bounce up and is bearish-leaning in the long term. Bulls needs to bring DJIA over DJ16,667 to try to change the trend.
The one year daily chart has a potential triple bottom.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market's bounce is due to the 4 oil export country decision to freeze the oil production. It generated an increase in the oil price of 12%, it got over U.S.$31.- per barrel in the last days. DJIA bounced up 2 Monday) and 1.39% (Tuesday). Oil stocks gained 2.5%. What does the difference between 12% oil prices increase versus oil stocks 2.5% increase mean? Investors think that the oil up move is limited in a small period of time.
We have to pay attention about the U.S.Dollar strength because it will limit U.S. exports and the U.S. corporation's dividends repatriate to U.S.A.
European banks are getting some troubles specially Italians because they have not created a bank for bad loans. The ECB (European Central Bank) has to put more money in Italy providing liquidity to the domestic market.
DJIA nor S&P are not in a technical bear market, then the whipsaw are going to continue because S&P could look for SP1,710 which is the 20% correction from the all-time high.
Stock market is bouncing up which is a good new. Japan GDP decreased 1.4% and China exports fell 6.6%.
Dear traders and investors, the market tries to bounce up but it is too early to take a bullish bias, it could be a dead cat bounce.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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