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miércoles, 5 de octubre de 2016

DJIA and S&P in the range bound, still bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,668      All-time high
                           18,470
                           18,447      September gap
                           18,390      50 Days moving average
                           18,351      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low

DJ Support:      17,995      Low of the support area
                           17,700
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,433
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,370.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P stay in the range bound which means that supports at DJ17,995 and SP2,117 are solid and the bias is still bullish-leaning. A violation of them will put the market in alert mode. The range is well defined for those indexes and NASDAQ COMPOSITE got a new all-time high.
For the bulls it is very important to overcome the resistances at DJ18,390 (50 DMA) and 18,447 (September gap). S&P corresponding are SP2,168 and SP2,180.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


Fundamentals:
There are some good news like last month ISM Manufacturing which got back to positive at 51.5. The market didn't go to the upside with clarity, why? Because we are in a curled or inverted market. All what is positive for the economy is taken against the stock market because the expectation about the interest rates hike. December FED decision seems to be ready for the interest rate increase. This is contradictory of what we expect of the market behavior following the way we were skilled as traders and investors. Pay attention to that and do not forget that this bull market is based on the Earnings Yield dominance over the Bond Yields. This bull market will be in place while the interest rates hike and the inflation will move up in a slow motion.
FTSE 100 rally to near record and  the British pound sinks to U.S.$1.2699, its lowest since June 1985.
We have five weeks for the presidential election and until that date we are going to witness volatility.
Dear traders and investors, September, the worst months for the stock market, is ended. What I expect most likely for October is that the market will stay in the range bound therefore buy only in the dips, not now, because we are near the high. Put your fresh money aside.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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