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miércoles, 8 de febrero de 2017

Trend is Still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  20,155      New all-time high
                           20,100.91 Record close

DJ Support:      19,770      50 Days moving average
                           19,732    
                           19,678      January closing low
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,090
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August low
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Strong

Technical Analysis:
The three indexes are in the highs. DJIA did a new all-time high. What we don't see is a frankly follow through.
The DJIA as the other two indexes are very well supported and they have a clearly up trend barring a breakdown of the support. S&P is fighting with SP2,300 and its all-time high is SP2,300.99 and the record close at SP2,298.37.

Click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
The new administration plans to stimulate the economy with "Buy american and hire American" (Trump's motto during the campaign) and investing for recovery and developping U.S.A. infrastructure. The average age of the fixed assets owned by the goverment was 24 years in 2015. To achive that the goverment thinks that they need one trillion dollras. Democrats proposed the same idea in 2015 and 2016. It seems that the path to get this project differs in the way, democrats wants to do through the goverment investment and Trump administration wants through APP (Asociation of Private Public). This project includes repair & replacement of aging bridges and motorways, upgrading electricity networks and water systems, repairing and fixing outdated dams and river locks, building railways and airports. Trump wants to recover the domestic manufacturing. All these in practice should be positive for the country and its economy.
Economic news are acceptable like corporate earnings during this season. Why is there not a follow through over DJ20,000 and S&P2,300? UNCERTAINTY. The market is taken as positive the first measurements taken by the new administration but the uncertainty of how will it be implemented and their future results is stopping an explosive follow through.

Dear traders and investors, the mood and the expectations are clearly supporting the upside bias of the market but we need to take some defensive measures in our portfolio due these big uncertainties.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

1 comentario:

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