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miércoles, 5 de abril de 2017

Bullish Trend Unbroken

DJ Resistance:  21,169      All-time high
                           21,000
                           20,850      Negative trend line & Gap
                           20,790      20 Days moving average
                           20,758

DJ Support:      20,592      50 Days moving average
                           20,410
                           20,125      January peak
                           20,000      Very strong
                           19,800
                           19,732      Strong
                           19,678      January low
                           19,200      Strong
                           19,190      200 Days moving average
                           18,800
                           18,668      Old all-time high
                           18,247      August high
                           18,000      Strong
                           17,833.23 November low (Trump rally)
                           17,579      Inflection point
                           17,125      Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P have retraced from their new all-time highs. The 50 days moving average have acted as support and are doing an excellent job. Technically this is bullish and that is the trend barring a violation of them.
Next resistance is DJ 20,758 and DJ20,850 is the most important target for the bulls. DJ20,410 and DJ20,000 should be strong supports for the index. Equivalent for S&P are SP2,342 (50 days moving average) and SP2,300.

Pleasde click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
S&P500's P/E is higher at 22 times but not at 30 which is the prelude for sell-off or the end of bull markets. In economy a decent P/E and a normal yield curve indicates a good behavior of almost all the components that affects the economy. Right now those indicators are in good shape, the three rate hike to 1.75% p.a. FED's target is discounted with a positive view, let's say accommodative. To top a bull market the economic recession and an inverted yield curve have to be present, that is not the case.
Consumer spending is in a good shape after Dallas FED President Rob Kaplan (last week on Thursday).
Bearish are expecting a correction about 5 or 6% for May, it could be done but it would be positive for the stock markets because it would clear the stock prices, adjusting positions and bring the opportunity to buy cheap and build solid portfolios.
Next week we will be visited by earnings season, best corporates earnings are expected. They could bring the 2017 P/E below 20 times for the end of the year.

Dear traders and investors, financial markets are not easy, we have to be aware and alert every minute of our lives. My opinion is still positive with the stock market and buy the deeps.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
   
                         

6 comentarios:

  1. Dear Gusi,
    Agree with you that financial markets are not so easy and must be alert specially next few weeks because of the international political and financial very deep problems(brexit, election in France,ect)...
    Best regards

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  2. Este comentario ha sido eliminado por el autor.

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