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miércoles, 14 de febrero de 2018

Rebound?

DJ Resistance:  26,616.71  All-time high
                           26,000
                           25,542       20 Days moving average
                           25,500
                           25,089       50 Days moving average
                           25,000
                           24,876       2017 peak
                           24,719       2017 close
                           24,715.90  Support of old range

  DJ Support:    24,500
                           24,100
                           26,950
                           23,600
                           23,500       Gap upside
                           23,480       Gap downside
                           23,250       Strong
                           23,174
                           23,002       Strong, gap
                           22,922       200 Days moving average
                           22,890
                           22,795
                           22,420       Strong, breakout
                           22,119
                           22,000
                           21,912
                           21,600
                           21,535       July peak

Technical Analysis:
DJIA and S&P have rest at the resistances corresponding to the 2017 high and 2017 close DJ24,719, DJ24,876 and SP2,673, SP2,695. It is very important for the bulls and for the market recovery to overcome those levels. The retest could take some time.
The February low is the lowest level in three months. We can determine as a breakout point the 2017 high and close.
The three indexes are digesting the February damages, the market is trying to bounce up and is capped at the resistances indicated before.
The primary uptrend continues very clear but the mid-term trend is bearish.
Last week S&P tested support at 200 days moving average and bounced up.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
The market is trying to stabilize and bouncing up. The markets have had a rapid and fierce correction. This last we were expecting and as it was long belated it could explain the frenetic movement, a 10% correction. We saw a profound profit taking, technical trading but fundamentals remain the same. The economy is doing well, the PIB is growing over 2.5 % p.a., the corporation earning are growing due of the market and the tax cut, and the consumers are well positioned.
Have we seeing the bottom of this correction? It is not possible to affirm that, the market could continue with ups and down. What we have to understand is that this correction is healthy for the market and will provide new opportunities to buy in the dips.
Next FED meeting is in March and they have announced three hikes of the interest rates for this year. We could define the consolidation range for the next months is the Friday's low and the all-time high. It is a broad range.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is at 106.9 from last month 104.9. With all the economy and momentum support there is future for the small business, pay attention to them.
Dear traders and investors, calm down and expect volatility, the trend is to the upside technically and  fundamentally supported by the economy. Financial markets are not easy. My advice is buy your selected stocks in the dips.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

                         

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