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martes, 14 de enero de 2014

Correction or consolidation?

DJ Resistance : 16.588       All-time high
                            16.577       All-time high close
                            16.520       Important
                            16.370       Strong (gap filled and prior support)

DJ Support      :  16.257.94  Monday's close
                             16.174      Strong (November peak)
                             16.058
                             15.700      (approx. August, September, October peaks)

Technical Analysis :
The strong support at DJ16.174 is intact and reinforced with 50 Days moving average. The first support broken yesterday and today's resistance DJ16.370 is very important for the uptrend. The equivalent in the S&P is 1.824 and it closed at SP1.838. This reversal should be considered a bullish sign. The volume of the market is increasing as you can see in the daily chart.

We have to pay attention if sellers come and break down DJ16.370, because the possibility to see DJ16.174 increases and there should be a real battle-field to confirm or change the trend in the short term.

The market uptrend is still in place, the trend did not change.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.




Fundamentals :
There are good and promising economic news but there are too important factors to solve as the debt ceiling to be sure that the stock market will continue its rising. For example the energy is a promising area for U.S.A., it is going to affect the commercial balance of the country in a positive way. The rising rates are not going to slow down the economy because the economy and the corporate profits in this moment  seem to be ready to construct another year with excellent earnings. Besides if banks begin to lend money to medium and small business we are going to see more profits which is good for the stock market and the economy.
Employment, last friday we got contradictory figures between unemployment rate and non-farm payrol in addition to ADC new jobs (about 240.000).

Dear traders and investors, in summary, I think the earnings season will act as a catalyst to look for the all-time high and quite  possibly we will get a new one. We are at the beginning of the earnings season. My conclusion is that we are in a consolidation phase not in a correction. Stay long over DJ16.174.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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