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martes, 10 de febrero de 2015

Backdrop still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45  All-time high
                           17,916       Important

DJ Support:      17,600
                           17,350       Sepetember peak
                           17,080       200 days moving average
                           16,990       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA stays in its consolidation range DJ16,990-18,103.45 like S&P.
DJ17,916 was surpassed by few points and it reversed. That means that sellers were attracted a t that level but the reverse is shallow, why? Because when the index attempted the resistance, broke the negative trend line (watch green negative trend line on the chart). Next resistance is DJ16,916 area (DJ17,951 last week high).
We can say that the market is in a very technical situation because is consolidating in a range. As the support has worked very well, the bounce has broken the negative trend line and the reverse has not been harsh, we can conclude that the bias for the first three months of 2015 is bullish and the long term to the upside is still in play according to technical analysis.
The 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages are supporting the DJ.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
We got a beautiful job report last week but the market lost steam. The explanation is the market fears to the rate increase this year due to the better job landscape.
Earnings season are still in play but the most important have been passed. There are no interesting catalyzers this week. I think that the market will try DJIA all-time high but it will stay in the consolidation range for a while before to do new highs.
Dear traders and investors, the market could stay in the consolidation range until next earnings season.  I expect rate increases in the third 2015 trimester at least. Some colleagues expect that FED action at the beginning of the second trimester.  We are not reading crystal balls, that movement is very important for the stock market. I am optimistic with U.S.A. economy for this year and I expect a good stock market based in the job market, productivity, consumption and the private investments.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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