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martes, 3 de febrero de 2015

Technically Still Bullish

DJ Resistance:  18,103.45  All-time record high
                           17,916
                           17,821

DJ Support:      17,420
                           17,350       2014 September high
                           17,262       2014 September closing high
                           17,074       200 days Moving Average
                           16,990       Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA bounced up from 200 days moving average approximately DJ17,060  and DJ16,990 is a strong support. As I have indicated that technical level attracts buyers. S&P did almost the same and its backdrop is stronger than DJIA.
The index stays consolidating in the range DJ16,990-18,103.45 and it is in a constructive bullish mood.
It is important for DJIA to break up the negative trend line (green in the one year daily chart). We have to pay attention to that line.
The five years bull market is still in place and clear in the big figure.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


Fundamentals:
ECB (European Central Bank) starts its QE (quantitative easing program) on March buying 60 billion bonds monthly. It should increase the liquidity and maintain low interest rates to force credit growth. That means small and medium corporations will get access to the low rate credits.  When the interest rates are low, the investors look for risk assets to get income and as we have seeing in the U.S.A. and United Kingdom, the stock market became an excellent investment. That is interesting and promissory but the bigger part of that liquidity stays in the banks to strengthen their balance sheets. I am not so optimistic with European QE excellent results.
Dear traders and investors, I think we are going to have low interest rates for at least the first three 2015 trimesters which will impact the stock market during this year.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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