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miércoles, 11 de mayo de 2016

DJ17,579 tested and bounced up

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,980      November 2014 peak

DJ Support:
                           17,810
                           17,579      Important inflection point
                           17,485      April low
                           17,400
                           17,125      Very strong
                           17,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,468
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
The market has well supported the initial sell in May. The important supports DJ 17,579 (important inflection point) and SP2,040 reversed the downside move showing that those important supports worked and that the trend is to the upside. These bounces from these supports that are over the April low DJ 17,485 get to DJIA a technical bullish bias because could form a higher low in May with respect to April low. Next resistance is DJ17,980 and DJIA is over its three moving averages (20,50 and 200 days). The trend is to the upside in the medium term barring supports break down at May low.
DJIA is the strongest between the three popular indexes and the weakest is NASDAQ Composite.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.


 Fundamentals:
The fundamentals that I wrote last week are the same for this one. Fund manager are rotating from soft growth stocks to those which have better expectations. This buy and sell maintains the market in a range, this is not a consolidation.
Technical analysis shows clearly a bullish-leaning for the medium term and the market is working very technically due the rotation and the earnings season expectation in July.
In the last two months the best place to be was in cash. Market needs more volatility and that doesn't like the investors. The market will wake up but when? I think it is for the coming earnings season. Do not forget that the five last consecutive earnings season were disappointed.
Oil continues leading the stock market, if it goes up stocks follow it. If oil goes down stocks do the same. The S&P range is SP2,040-2,100.
Dear traders and investors, keep calm, DJIA and S&P stay in the range and it is difficult to trade, the break of the range limits will bring the market next movement while technical analysis indicates an upward trend.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises
                       

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