Translate

miércoles, 4 de mayo de 2016

Sell in May and go away?

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,167
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,978      November 2014 peak
                           17,810      Strong and important

DJ Support:      17,579      Inflection point
                           17,485.     April low
                           17,400
                           17,125      Very strong
                           17,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,468
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
DJIA did a retracement like S&P looking to test the supports. Both have to overcome DJ17,810 and SP2,080 to be again in the bull way to the all-time highs.
DJIA has important supports at DJ17,650 (last week low), DJ17,579 (inflection point now support), and DJ17,125 (very strong support). S&P supports are SP2,052, 2,040, 2,020.
DJIA and S&P are consolidating before to try to visit the upper side of the charts. It could be in July with the earnings season.
The bullish-leaning bias is still in play for the long term barring a violation of DJ17,125.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.



  
Fundamentals: 
May arrived and the market trend is bullish. From May to October the stock market gets its harder period of the year. Normally the stock market becomes weak in May and there is a summer rally in July with the earnings season, after that the market goes to the doldrums in August and the first two weeks of September.
FED is trying to avoid interest rates raise because the economy is not in the best shape. The corporate earnings are coming weaker during the last five consecutive quarters. What do explain the last rally born in February? The low interest rates that maintains a weak dollar and consequently the commodities stay stable and hectic. The low interest rates also allow the over-valued market. Following this idea we can anticipate that the fund managers will try to get cash selling part of their portfolios if S&P goes above SP2,100 in May and June.
European Union and Japan maintain low interest rates, we can think about negatives. If Fed raises interest rates the dollar will skyrocket affecting the week U.S.A. economics.
The bulls need the growth returns, better corporate earnings, solid consumption figures. If growth doesn't come back the risk of a bear market will be increased, watch the very strong support DJ15,371.33.

Dear trader and investors, DJIA did well looking for the all-time high but to reach it DJIA needs better economic health to advance further. For example the U.S. Manufacturing March good figure was reversed in April to 50.8.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

No hay comentarios:

Publicar un comentario