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miércoles, 8 de junio de 2016

DJIA and S&P fight important resistances

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,171      April 2016 high
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           17,980      November 2015 peak
                           17,934      May peak

DJ Support:      17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,332      May low
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis:
S&P2,117.5 is the next resistance, over it the way to the SP2,134 all-time high is open. DJIA next resistances are DJ17,934(May high) and 17,980 (November 2015 peak).
S&P and DJIA reached June high which is bullish. DJIA has rallied from the negative trend line support (watch purple line in the chart), technically this is bullish.
You can see in the chart the February to April rally with a limited April-May pullback supports a bullish bias. Pay attention to the positive trend line coming from 2015 low (red line in the chart).
S&P is stronger than DJIA backdrop.
Technical analysis shows a bullish-leaning path.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
Job report on Friday was disappointment the meager add jobs were 38,000. PMI Services dropped from 52.8 to 51.3 and ISM Services tumbled from 55.7 to 52.9. These and other non-positive economic news were received with happiness by the traders and investors because they expect the hike rates will be postponed. Small growth and weak jobs will put aside the risk of the FED rates increase. Investors prefer to be in stocks than in bonds or cash. That explains why the bulls have tried to overcome the resistances to fly to the all-time highs.
Dear traders and investors, technical analysis is showing bullish-leaning clearly. The rally from February is in place and the majority of the market participants are trying to push the market to the all-time peak. Bears could became bulls over SP2,100 and DJ18,000. But, personally, I prefer the fundamentals, the weak economic news could trigger a sell-off or an orderly sale. For me, economic growth is a concern, I have tried to explain in my last actualizations of the blog that, for the markets to visit the highs, it needs more fuel like growth and positive or better corporate earnings, the season would be in July. Do we have a summer rally?

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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