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miércoles, 1 de junio de 2016

DJIA still in the range, no breakout

DJ Resistance:  18,351      All-time high
                           18,206      Breakout
                           18,104      2014 peak
                           18,171
                           17,980      November 2015 peak
                           17,899.24 Tuesday peak

DJ Support:      17,724      Tuesday low
                           17,579      August 2015 inflection point
                           17,332      Strong
                           17,125      Very strong
                           16,933.43 Strong September 2015 high
                           16,667      Inflection point
                           16,520
                           16,200      Light
                           15,980      Very strong
                           15,450      Strong
                           15,371.33 Very strong 2015 low

Technical Analysis: 
The range-bound of DJIA and S&P is still in play. Next DJIA resistances are DJ17,899.24, DJ17,980 and supports at DJ17,724, 17,579,17,332 and 17,125.
The negative trend line (purple color) coming from DJ18,171 was touched this Tuesday and bounced up at DJ17,124. This is positive for the bull case. In addition the 50 days moving average supported DJIA at the same level (watch blue line). Technically the bounce up from May low supports the bullish-leaning.
Charts show DJIA and S&P well supported in a range with a bull trend but they are finding difficulties to break the rank. S&P range is SP2,000-2,100. Momentum is with the bulls, Tuesday trading was done with very high volume.

Please click over the charts to enlarge them.



Fundamentals:
The market is still in a range but this week we are going to get important economic news like Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, EMU manufacturing, ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing, PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services, ISM Services, Global Composite PMI, Chain Store Sales, etc. Those could be the trigger for the breakout to the up or down side.
DJIA closed May with a gain of 0.1%, S&P did 1.5% over the month and NASDAQ COMPOSITE 3.6% gain over May.
Market is expecting the up move of the interest rates in June, the ten years bond is paying 1.82% p.a. coming from 1.87% p.a.
Real GDP for Q1 was revised from 0.5 to 0.8%, on a year to year basis that means 2% for the year.
Wages were accelerating during the past six quarters (NIPA) but corporate profits have declined on the wane for the last six quarters. Increases in wages undermine corporate profits because the consumption is solid in these moments.
Dear traders and investors, the market momentum and economics figures are with the bulls now. I think that growth in corporate earnings are the necessary fuel to continue with the old long term bullish market. For the moment pay attention to S&P2,100.

Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!
Ulises

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