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martes, 16 de diciembre de 2014

What so hectic days for the stock market

DJ Resistance:  17,991     All-time record high
                           17,726.55
                           17,600
                           17,525
                           17,278 - 17,350

DJ Support:      16,990
                           16,588
                           16,320
                           16,015
                           15,854

Technical Analysis:
What a damage we can see in the charts. The strong support at DJ16,278 was penetrated and left far. The DJIA needs to overcome this level and also to recover a level over its 50 days moving average to look for stabilization. In the last seven sessions, six were very negative and only one positive. DJIA has lost almost 5.125% during this period.
S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE have the same backdrop.
The trend is bullish in the long run, please watch the six years bull market chart. It is not clear in the short term.
We have to pay attention to DJ16,278. In that level there was a strong battle, please watch volume, and sellers fought buyers. Sellers were attracted there.
Let's see how the market reacts during these three days.
Please click over the charts to enlarge them.


Fundamentals:
I will relay last week fundamentals blog:
"We are clear that U.S. economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth rate (maybe below 7% of GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs they are not the same as 2006 jobs, that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences." What I missed is the Russia case and the rubble.

Dear traders and investors, next economic news should be positive. This correction or reversal should be limited. Actually, sellers are driving the market, they are present and acting releasing their stocks into the market making the offer higher than the demand. Sellers are investors, traders and fund managers taking profit from their positions as I explained few weeks ago and cleaning their portfolios. For that, they sell bad or weak positions and take loses preparing the taxes to pay until April 2015. My expectations are more hectic days in the stock market and a Christmas Rally over December 20th. Please be calm and cool!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

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