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martes, 2 de diciembre de 2014

Dow Jones uptrend continues

DJ Resistance:        17,897       All-time record high
                                 17,879.55  All-time close high

DJ Support:            17,705       Strong
                                 17,600
                                 17,500
                                 17,278 - 17,350 Very strong

Technical Analysis:
DJIA got a 9% correction in October and continues ridding an extraordinary and powerful 7 weeks bounce.
This bounce up is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
The breakout level of this up movement is DJ17,278 - 17,350 which is equivalent to the height of September. This last movement should find a very strong support at those levels, buyers should come to buy and fight bears there. It is almost a steep line to the new highs which makes difficult to determine small supports in the race. All this defines a constructive up move and confirm the bullish bias for December. The long term trend is bullish for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This V Reversal has an academic target at DJ18,600.
Next target for the year end is DJ18,000 and S&P2,100.
Long over DJ17,278.

Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are going to get important economic news from this Wednesday specially non-farm payroll and unemployment rate on Friday. These figures during December are going to drive the market. December is a good month for the stock market. Traditionally we get Christmas rally and I think this December will follow the same pattern because U.S.A. economy is improving. UE economy is still weak but in a better shape, China probably will define a lower 2015 GDP target, Japan is in recession but asking for a new mandate to fix its deflationary and weak economy.
The market is expecting a deep correction at same point. The participants are nervous and are going to get any excuse to take profits. For example last Friday and Monday were profit taking days with the excuse of a black Friday figures disappointment.
My expectations for December are some market rest with some profits taking in the first 20 days of the month and a clear Christmas rally in the last 10 days of December. Remember I was wrong with my November expectations when I thought about market rest in the first two weeks, market always pointed up and finally we got our Thanksgiving rally.
Dear traders and investors, stay long over DJ17,288, I expect a good December for us.
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises

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