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martes, 9 de diciembre de 2014

Sharp reversal from new all-time high, almost DJ18,000

DJ Resistance:  17,991     All-time record high
                           17,894     Prior all-time high

DJ Support:      17,726.55     Strong
                           17,600
                           17,525
                           17,278 - 17,350 Very strong
                           16,990

Technical Analysis:
DJIA has reversed sharp from its new all-time record high, it almost got DJ18,000.
This sharp reverse is important because sellers came at an important psychological level DJ18,000 and they battled the bulls this time. What I like is that there is a clear short term range formed during the last two weeks. This range should be the consolidation area for the market rest (DJ17,726 - 17,991). The market can stay in the range for ten days more fighting the bulls and bears. This fight will be defined with or not a Christmas Rally.
DJIA is supported by the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages.
It is hard to determine the DJIA supports due to the steep slope of the Dow Jones bounce up from mid-October and besides the market is in unknown territory.
The breakout point DJ17,278 - 17,350 should provide a formidable and strong support attracting buyers.
Considering DJIA behavior, S&P and NASDAQ COMPOSITE also, the bull trend for medium and long term maintains its bullish perspective. The three indexes are well backed barring a break through supports.
Please click over the chart to enlarge it.

Fundamentals:
We are clear that U.S, economy is doing well, EU is still weak, Japan fighting recession and deflation, China is going to accept a lower growth (maybe below 7% GDP), India is working hard restructuring and modernizing its economy, Brazil is complicated with its exports and Petrobras corruption, Greece surprised the market calling for new elections and so on. It is not a nice landscape.
What actually worries me is the quality of U.S. new jobs, they are not the same as 2006 jobs that is negative for the domestic consumption. The other one is the oil prices effect in the commodities and financial markets. For example U.S.A. is going to dispose 90 billion more to spend this year due oil prices but Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. will reduce their consumption due the less revenue, it could stir the social ocean and we don't know the consequences.
Dear traders and investors, we are facing hectic movements in the next 10 days. I expect that the supports are going to work well and, if that, we are going to be compensate by our Christmas Rally in the last ten days of December. Am I extremely optimistic? My nature is optimistic but I have done my due diligence. Nothing is written! be cool and navigate these markets according to your plans, stick with them!
Good luck, viel Glueck, buona fortuna, buena suerte, bonne chance!

Ulises
                         

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